NFL Week 15 DFS: Cheap Targets and Pricey Fades on DraftKings Daily Fantasy Football
Thursday night's Week 15 opener between the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers might not have been a fantasy masterpiece. However, fans will have several opportunities to get in on some quality daily fantasy sports (DFS) action over the weekend.
With games on Saturday, Sunday and Monday—and 30 more teams ready to play—there will be DFS opportunities abound.
Below, we'll dive into some of our favorite value plays of Week 15 and examine a few pricey options that may be worth avoiding.
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Quarterback
Target: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams, $6,000
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford continues to be undervalued in most DFS formats. While he produces more often than not with standout receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, he's still viewed as a mid-tier option at best.
He shouldn't be viewed that way this week. The Rams are set to host the Washington Commanders, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season.
This should also be a high-scoring game, as Stafford and Sam Howell engage in a quarterback duel. Stafford should be considered a high-floor player with an even higher ceiling.
Fade: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars, $6,600
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been in a slightly higher tier than Stafford this season, but we'd suggest valuing him far less in Week 15.
While Lawrence did throw three touchdown passes against the Cleveland Browns last week—and appeared largely unaffected by his high-ankle sprain—he also tossed a trio of interceptions.
This week, the 24-year-old will face a Baltimore Ravens defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs. The Jaguars, for whatever reason, haven't been as efficient at home as on the road either. Don't expect Lawrence to find the end zone as often this week, though he very well could have multiple turnovers again.
Running Back
Target: Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons, $4,400
Tyler Allgeier continues to split time with Bijan Robinson in the Atlanta Falcons backfield. While Robinson has emerged as the superior fantasy option because of his point-per-reception (PPR) value, Allgeier is still playable in the right matchup.
This week should bring one of those matchups. Allgeier and the Falcons will face the Carolina Panthers, who have surrendered the third-most fantasy points to running backs in 2023.
Because Allgeier doesn't see a ton of work in the passing game (no receptions since Week 10), his floor is a bit limited here. However, it wouldn't be a shock to see Allgeier again lead Atlanta in rushing and to find the end zone. The Panthers have allowed 21 rushing touchdowns this season.
Fade: De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins, $7,200
De'Von Achane was inactive the last time the Miami Dolphins faced the New York Jets. However, Miami rushed for 167 yards in that contest.
The issue with Achane this week is that he's dealing with a toe injury. His status is among the team's "unknowns," according to head coach Mike McDaniel, per Joe Schad of the Palm Beach Post.
This, combined with an unpredictable backfield rotation makes it hard to trust Achane at this price point. He had a decent enough Week 15—finishing with five catches and 71 scrimmage yards—but he took a back seat to Raheem Mostert. Mostert ($7.1K) had one catch, 100 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns—and he's the more enticing Week 15 option.
Wide Receiver
Target: Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers, $5,300
The Green Bay Packers are dealing with injuries at the receiver position this week, as Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks have both been limited with ankle issues. Running back Aaron Jones has been battling a knee injury, while fellow RB AJ Dillon is now dealing with a thumb ailment.
All of this could lead to an expanded role for wideout Romeo Doubs in Week 15. Add in the fact that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers, and Doubs should be a high-ceiling play.
Doubs should also have a solid floor, as he's averaged four receptions over his past four outings.
Fade: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions, $7,900
Fading Detroit Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown feels weird, but the Chicago Bears showed last week that he's not matchup-proof. Chicago did a great job of putting Detroit in adverse down-and-distance situations, and quarterback Jared Goff struggled.
As a result, St. Brown finished with just three catches for 21 yards.
Expect the Denver Broncos to employ a similar strategy. St. Brown may overcome—he's still supremely talented—but the Broncos have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers.
St. Brown is a risk at this price point, and receivers like Cooper Kupp ($7.8K) and Deebo Samuel ($7.7K) provide more value in a similar range.
Tight End
Target: Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders, $3,700
Washington's Logan Thomas projects as a true sleeper tight end in Week 15. He didn't have a reception in his last game, and he had just two catches for 15 yards in the one before that. However, he's had his fair share of strong outings in 2023.
Before his recent two-game skid, Thomas had at least four catches and 40 receiving yards in five straight contests.
He should have a similar floor this week against the Rams, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to TEs. Don't be surprised if he also finds the end zone for the fourth time this season.
Fade: Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears, $4,500
While the Cleveland Browns failed to contain Even Engram last week, they've done a tremendous job against opposing tight ends for the bulk of the season. That makes Week 15 a very dicey matchup for Chicago Bears standout Cole Kmet.
Only the Tennessee Titans have allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing tight ends than Cleveland this season.
While Kmet is a very talented pass-catcher, he's far from matchup-proof. He got blanked by the Raiders earlier in the year, and he had just three catches for 20 yards against the Lions a few weeks ago. Kmet is simply too risky to trust at this price point.
*Fantasy scoring information from FantasyPros.
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