Astros Ace Framber Valdez's Top 10 Landing Spots amid MLB Trade Rumors

The Houston Astros don't necessarily want to trade Framber Valdez, but they're not so dead-set against it that they aren't willing to entertain offers.

This is according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, who reported on the situation Sunday: "The Houston Astros don't plan to trade co-ace Framber Valdez, at least not this winter, but they are listening, with more than five teams already checking in on him."

The last notable Astro to pop up in trade rumors was star third baseman Alex Bregman, and general manager Dana Brown was quick to shut the idea down. Knowing that, the odds of Brown taking a different stance on Valdez seem slim.

But if for no other reason, a potential trade of the ace left-hander is worth taking seriously because of the Astros' payroll situation. So, let's assess that and his potential value and then get down to speculating on his best landing spots.

As Chandler Rome covered at The Athletic, the Astros have historically been unwilling to go over the luxury tax under owner Jim Crane. And as such, it's noteworthy that the club currently projects to exceed the $237 million threshold for 2024.

To this end, a trade of Valdez would clear a projected $12.1 million salary from the books. The savings could subsequently be put into areas of need, such as the outfield and the bullpen.

However, it's not as if the Astros need to trade Valdez.

As a ground ball magnet with other penchants for striking batters out and limiting walks, the 30-year-old has been one of MLB's best pitchers in compiling a 3.13 ERA over 399.1 innings across the last two seasons. Factoring in that he's also under club control through 2025, he's one of the most valuable trade chips in the league.

Though the Astros are slated to exceed the luxury tax next year, right now it's by a little less than $400,000. They're also decidedly a win-now team, as they'll be looking to make it to at least the American League Championship Series for an eighth year in a row in 2024.

Even if their farm system is perhaps the worst in MLB right now, one assumes the Astros would only trade Valdez if the resulting package benefited them in the present in addition to the future. Ideally, they'd get multiple pieces of major league-ready talent under club control for the foreseeable future.

So after first touching on some honorable mentions, let's dive right into 10 teams who could conceivably make competitive offers for Valdez with trade proposals as we go.

Note: All starting pitching WAR courtesy of Baseball Reference, with 2024 projected starting rotations courtesy of RosterResource at FanGraphs. Farm system rankings are by B/R's Joel Reuter.

New York Mets

Though the Mets badly need starting pitching, the latest from Will Sammon of The Athletic suggests it's Yoshinobu Yamamoto or bust for them in free agency. And while they hypothetically have the prospects in their fourth-ranked system to pivot to Valdez, it's generally hard to imagine the club dismantling said system so soon after fixing it up.

San Diego Padres

Likewise, whether now is a good time for the Padres to subtract from their 11th-ranked farm system is debatable. They certainly need pitching, but the future looks uncertain following an 82-80 season with a payroll crunch to come in 2024.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers didn't need a starting pitcher up until a few days ago, but now there's a massive hole in their rotation after Max Scherzer had surgery to repair a herniated disk. But when one remembers that the Astros and Rangers are bitter AL West rivals, a trade sending Valdez from the former to the latter seems highly unlikely.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 9.8 (15th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Gerrit Cole, LHP Carlos Rodón, RHP Clark Schmidt, LHP Nestor Cortes, RHP Clayton Beeter

The Yankees have already struck for the biggest trade of the winter, scoring Juan Soto in a blockbuster with San Diego that has huge ramifications for both his and the club's future.

Now the Yankees want an ace starting pitcher. Specifically, Yamamoto. Yet if they don't get him, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic says they'll remain "aggressive" in pursuit of pitching.

To this end, Valdez would fit the Yankees on paper because of how his ground ball style would mesh with an infield defense that racked up nine Outs Above Average in 2023. They also just plain need another top-of-the-rotation type, and Valdez is certainly that.

Trade Proposal: New York Yankees get LHP Framber Valdez; Houston Astros get RHP Chase Hampton, CF Everson Pereira, SS George Lombard Jr.

As they would get back the Yankees' No. 2, No. 3 and No. 8 prospects, the Astros would do well enough in this deal. One catch is that only Pereira could help right away, as Hampton has only made it as far as Double-A and Lombard is just 18 years old.

Then there's the other catch: Given the history between these two teams and their status as fierce American League rivals, they almost certainly won't be trading with one another.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 6.9 (23rd)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Tyler Glasnow, RHP Walker Buehler, RHP Bobby Miller, LHP Ryan Yarbrough, RHP Emmet Sheehan

Like the Yankees, the Dodgers are firmly in on Yamamoto even after bolstering their rotation by trading for Glasnow.

Should the Dodgers miss out on the Japanese ace, it's easy to imagine them circling back to the trade market. After all, they still have a top-10 farm system in addition to spare major leaguers even after the Glasnow deal.

Because their starters averaged only 4.9 innings per start in 2023, what's for sure is that the Dodgers could use an innings eater of Valdez's caliber. Otherwise, who would object to a Valdez-Glasnow-Shohei Ohtani trio come 2025?

Trade Proposal: Los Angeles Dodgers get LHP Framber Valdez; Houston Astros get RHP Emmet Sheehan, RHP Nick Frasso, RHP Landon Knack

Though Frasso and Knack are the No. 3 and No. 9 talents in Los Angeles' system, don't underrate Sheehan as a prize in this hypothetical deal. His slider, sweeper and changeup all had whiff rates north of 40 percent this year.

But even if a trade with the Dodgers would at least get Valdez out of the AL, it's just as hard to imagine the Astros doing business with them as it is with the Yankees. There's history here, too.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 9.0 (17th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Kevin Gausman, RHP José Berríos, RHP Chris Bassitt, LHP Yusei Kikuchi, RHP Alek Manoah

Though the Blue Jays say they need hitters, they're not sitting out the Yamamoto market:

As every member of Toronto's rotation has been an All-Star, it's a reach to say the club needs another ace. But sometimes there's sense in making strengths even stronger, especially given that Manoah is a weak link in this case after his stock plummeted this season.

If the Jays were to trade for Valdez, they'd go into next season with a strong claim on the best rotation in MLB. Even as is, theirs ranked third with a 3.85 ERA this year.

Trade Proposal: Toronto Blue Jays get LHP Framber Valdez; Houston Astros get RHP Alek Manoah, LHP Ricky Tiedemann

The Jays are reportedly open to moving Manoah, and the idea of the Astros taking him on as a reclamation project is nothing if not intriguing. But they'd also need an insurance policy, hence why it makes sense that they would also get the No. 1 prospect in a weak system.

Once again, though, it's fair to wonder if two AL rivals would hook up on such a big trade, much less one in which Toronto would basically be selling low on Manoah.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 9.9 (T-13th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Kyle Bradish, RHP Grayson Rodriguez, LHP John Means, RHP Dean Kremer, LHP Cole Irvin

The Orioles have had a quiet winter so far, but not by design.

A "front-line starting pitcher" is the team's top need, according to Jake Rill of MLB.com, and they're probably more likely to trade for one than to sign one. For instance, Nightengale has them as one of two favorites for Chicago White Sox righty Dylan Cease.

Albeit a likely pricier one, Valdez would be a better get for the Orioles. He'd ensure that the 192 innings that Kyle Gibson gave them in 2023 wouldn't go unaccounted for in 2024, and surely with far superior run prevention.

Trade Proposal: Baltimore Orioles get LHP Framber Valdez; Houston Astros get OF Colton Cowser, 2B Connor Norby, LHP Cade Povich

If there's any reason the Astros should want to trade with the Orioles, it's because they have the No. 1 farm system in MLB. And in this trade, they'd get back the No. 2, No. 8 and No. 9 prospects therewithin.

Yet there's still the collision course problem. After they won 101 and 90 games this year, it's doubtful that either the Orioles or the Astros would want to help one another out.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 10.4 (10th)

2024 Projected Rotation: LHP Chris Sale, RHP Nick Pivetta, RHP Brayan Bello, RHP Kutter Crawford, RHP Tanner Houck

According to ESPN's Jeff Passan, reports that the Red Sox have made Yamamoto a $300 million offer are "inaccurate."

Though that doesn't mean the Red Sox are out on the 25-year-old altogether, indications are that they're not a favorite for him either. If so, having to pivot to other potential rotation saviors may be inevitable.

Given that Boston's infield ranked 30th in MLB with minus-39 Outs Above Average this year, this isn't the most practical on-field fit for Valdez. Like the Dodgers, though, the Red Sox should at least be interested in him as a badly needed innings eater.

Trade Proposal: Boston Red Sox get LHP Framber Valdez; Houston Astros get CF Jarren Duran, RHP Tanner Houck

Though they're technically American League rivals, it's easier to imagine the Red Sox and Astros hooking up on such a big trade. After the former lost 84 games this year, the latter might not see them as a threat.

The real difficulty is in coming up with a suitable trade package. Duran and Houck have upside, sure, but the best pieces (i.e., Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony) in Boston's third-ranked farm system are either likely untouchable or just bad fits in Houston.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 10.0 (T-11th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Spencer Strider, LHP Max Fried, RHP Charlie Morton, RHP Bryce Elder, RHP Reynaldo López

It feels like forever ago that Atlanta was connected to Aaron Nola in free agency before he re-signed with the Philadelphia Phillies, but the club's pursuit for an impact starter is ongoing.

According to Nightengale, Atlanta is the other favorite for Cease alongside the Orioles. Should Baltimore beat them to the punch, a pivot to Valdez would make some sense.

Atlanta's infield defense isn't as good as you might think, but Valdez's sheer reliability should appeal to them if nothing else does. Though Atlanta's rotation was good on the whole in 2023, it completely deteriorated with a 5.10 ERA in the second half.

Trade Proposal: Atlanta gets LHP Framber Valdez; Houston Astros get RHP AJ Smith-Shawver, RHP Hurston Waldrep, RHP JR Ritchie

Atlanta may only have the No. 25 system in MLB, but it's rich with pitching. This trade would net Houston its No. 1, No. 2 and No. 4 prospects, and Smith-Shawver would be ready to help right away in 2024.

But would the Astros deal with the team that beat them in the 2021 World Series? It's not as outlandish as the possibilities in the back half of this list, but it's nonetheless an idea that gives one pause. The potential of them meeting again in 2024 is too real.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 13.6 (4th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Zack Wheeler, RHP Aaron Nola, LHP Ranger Suárez, RHP Taijuan Walker, LHP Cristopher Sánchez

Speaking of the Phillies, they're not done shopping for pitching even after re-upping with Nola on a seven-year, $175 million contract.

The Phillies are in on Yamamoto, and not in a just-doing-homework kind of way. Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer says they plan to be "aggressive" in their pursuit, for which they've already involved Bryce Harper:

Assuming it's not Yamamoto or bust for the Phillies, Valdez will be an option if they miss out. Their infield defense, which posted 13 Outs Above Average in 2023, is plenty good enough for him, and he'd otherwise make an intimidating trio with Nola and Zack Wheeler.

Trade Proposal: Philadelphia Phillies get LHP Framber Valdez; Houston Astros get LHP Cristopher Sánchez, RHP Mick Abel

Like with Atlanta, there's perhaps a question of whether the Astros and Phillies would be willing to deal with one another. They met in the 2022 World Series, after all, and it would surprise nobody if they met again in 2024.

For what it's worth, though, the Astros could probably do a better deal with the Phillies. In this one, they'd get a talented lefty in Sánchez and the Phillies' No. 2 prospect in Abel, who Reuter also rated as MLB's No. 23 overall prospect back in September.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 10.0 (T-11th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Logan Webb, RHP Anthony DeSclafani, RHP Ross Stripling, LHP Kyle Harrison, RHP Keaton Winn

Stop me if you've heard this before, but the Giants are yet another team going hard after Yamamoto.

The two sides met earlier this month on Sunday, Dec. 11. That's the day the Giants found out they had swung and missed on Ohtani, thus continuing what Buster Posey called the team's "free-agent slump."

Though the signing of Jung Hoo Lee moved the Giants closer to snapping out of it, they might be better off trying their luck on the trade market. If they went after Valdez, they could end up with both of MLB's top ground ball artists in front of an elite infield defense.

Trade Proposal: San Francisco Giants get LHP Framber Valdez; Houston Astros get CF Luis Matos, LHP Carson Whisenhunt, RHP Keaton Winn

There wouldn't be much in the way of short-term risk if the Astros were to trade Valdez to the Giants. Beyond being in a whole other league, they'd still only be a fringe contender after going 79-83 this season.

There's otherwise value for Houston to extract from San Francisco. In this case, a major league-ready center fielder, the Giants' No. 3 prospect and a guy whose heavy splitter usage could at least make him a bullpen weapon.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 5.0 (26th)

2024 Projected Rotation: RHP Hunter Greene, RHP Graham Ashcraft, LHP Andrew Abbott, RHP Nick Martinez, LHP Nick Lodolo

Contrary to the bulk of the other teams on this list, the Reds will not be signing Yamamoto. His likely $300 million price tag is a bit beyond them.

The Reds nonetheless want to add a top-of-the-rotation arm. Martinez, a newcomer on a $26 million deal, is simply not going to fix what ailed the Reds' rotation as it posted a 5.43 ERA this year.

Valdez would go much further in this regard, and the Reds frankly need his ground ball magnetism. They finished second to last in ground ball percentage this year, which is no way to succeed at the launching pad that is Great American Ball Park.

Trade Proposal: Cincinnati Reds get LHP Framber Valdez; Houston Astros get LHP Nick Lodolo, RHP Fernando Cruz, 3B Cam Collier

The Reds have a notable surplus of talented infielders, but that's not really what the Astros need. This trade suits them because it would net them a lefty with huge upside in Lodolo and, in Cruz, one of the game's more underrated swing-and-miss relievers.

Plus, the Astros and the Reds aren't exactly on parallel paths. If the latter is going to emerge as a World Series contender, it will likely be after the former's window has closed.

2023 Starting Pitching WAR: 8.0 (20th)

2024 Projected Rotation: LHP Justin Steele, RHP Jameson Taillon, RHP Kyle Hendricks, LHP Jordan Wicks, RHP Javier Assad

There's no question that the Cubs' top need is for an impact hitter, so good on them for making a serious run to bring back Cody Bellinger:

Yet even if the Cubs bring back Bellinger, the Marcus Stroman-shaped hole in their rotation will remain. They've already toyed with filling it via the trade market, as they reportedly asked about Glasnow and have also inquired on Shane Bieber.

One would hope the Cubs have also asked about Valdez. Because if he fits anywhere, it's with an up-and-coming contender whose infield co-led the league in Outs Above Average this year.

Trade Proposal: Chicago Cubs get LHP Framber Valdez; Houston Astros get RHP Cade Horton, LHP Jordan Wicks

As with the Reds, the Cubs aren't quite on the same contention timeline as the Astros. Houston could therefore make this trade with some confidence that Valdez wouldn't make them pay for it in a face-to-face way in October.

As for the trade itself, the Astros would get the No. 2 and No. 4 prospects from the best farm system in the National League. Wicks could help them right away, while Horton's debut shouldn't be far off after he dominated at Double-A to finish off his 2023 season.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.