NFL Picks Week 16: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Score Bets
Week 16 is looking like another exciting slate for NFL fans. The week kicks off with the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night. The Rams are still in the playoff mix, while the Saints are still alive in the NFC South race.
The Week will end with the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers on Monday night. That promises to be one of the marquee matchups of the entire season, as Baltimore and San Francisco currently hold the top seeds in the AFC and NFC, respectively.
Below, we'll dive into some of our favorite matchups for Week 16 and a few wagering opportunities based on the early over/unders.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
Saints and Rams over 45.5 Points
With quarterback Matthew Stafford again healthy, the Rams have emerged as a legitimate playoff threat in the NFC. Stafford's connection with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua is dangerous, and L.A. has found itself a lead back in Kyren Williams.
This combination has led the Rams to a 7-7 record and has the offense ranked eighth in yards and ninth in points.
However, Los Angeles' youthful defense hasn't been as consistent. This opens the door for New Orleans to put a fair amount of points on the board. Derek Carr and the Saints haven't been particularly consistent this year, but they do have their fair share of playmaking targets.
The Saints have scored at least 24 points in each of their last three games.
Fans should expect a bit of offensive back-and-forth on Thursday night, even if the short-week turnaround leads to a somewhat sloppy game.
It's worth noting that L.A.'s past four games have featured no fewer than 48 total points.
Bills and Chargers over 44 Points
The Buffalo Bills have seen a significant offensive turnaround under interim coordinator Joe Barry. The offense has leaned more on running back James Cook, while still allowing quarterback Josh Allen to make the occasional splash play.
As a result, Buffalo has won three of its last four games—and it probably should have beaten the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12—and it has scored at least 31 points in three of the last four.
However, the Bills currently sit outside of the AFC wild-card picture, and they need to win out to have a shot at making the postseason. They'll be focused on beating the Los Angeles Chargers this week, and they should score plenty while doing it.
Los Angeles had an embarrassing effort in a 63-21 loss last Thursday. While the Chargers should play with a little more moxie this week, their 30th-ranked pass defense isn't likely to slow, Allen, Stefon Diggs and the Buffalo passing attack.
It wouldn't be a shock to see Buffalo score into the 40s by itself, and as long as L.A. can put a few points on the board, this one should safely hit the over.
49ers and Ravens over 46.5 Points
Considering the Ravens boast the top-ranked scoring defense, this is an extremely high points total. However, the 49ers are clicking well enough offensively to hit the mark.
Brock Purdy has become an MVP front-runner, and his stop skill players—Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk—are all healthy.
San Francisco will be at home, and it has scored no fewer than 27 pints since the Week 9 bye.
The Ravens, meanwhile, are likely to get plenty out of Lamar Jackson and their offense. The 49ers defense is solid, but it's far from invulnerable. It surrendered over 200 rushing yards and 29 points to the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.
Expect the 49ers to score well into the 20s, even against a terrific Baltimore defense. The Ravens, meanwhile, are very likely to keep pace.
It's worth noting that San Francisco has had lopsided wins over its past five games while also producing 41 or more total points. This one is not going to be a one-sided affair.
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