2023 MLB Free Agents: Predictions, Rumors for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dylan Cease, More
Where will Yoshinobu Yamamoto play American baseball?
It is the question that hangs over MLB's free agency period like a pregnant cloud, his eventual signing opening the floodgates and allowing other teams to continue their pursuit of starting pitching in hopes of assembling the rotation needed to win the World Series.
Find out the latest on Yamamoto's plans, as well as updates on Dylan Cease and Jordan Montgomery, with this collection of insider reports.
Yankees the Favorite to Land Yamamoto?
The Yoshinobu Yamamoto sweepstakes is heating up, with the talented, 25-year-old righty having met with several big-market teams as he prepares to make his American debut.
The Mets and Phillies are among the teams he has met with but as Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported, two squads remain the favorite to sign him.
"The New York Yankees continue to be the favorite to land Japanese pitching star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but Yamamoto was impressed by the Dodgers' presentation last week, which included Ohtani. Yamamoto, friends say, has long admired the Dodgers."
Yamamoto had an ERA of 1.16 in 2023, a win-loss record of 17-6, struck out 9.3 per nine innings, and gave up 0.1 home runs per start.
He was brilliant for Team Japan in the World Baseball Classic and for the Orix Buffaloes this past season. It makes sense that he would want to take his talents to the majors.
It also makes sense that the Yankees would be all-in on acquiring him and pairing him with Gerrit Cole as a potent one-two punch at the top of the rotation.
Especially in a division with high-powered offenses, such as the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays.
For the Dodgers, Yamamoto would represent the latest piece in its commitment to shoring up its greatest weakness: starting pitching. Los Angeles won 100 games in 2023 but failed to make it out of the divisional series, swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks amid the second-worst team ERA in the postseason at 6.58.
It was a humbling, disappointing loss for a team that benefited from some of the baseball of both Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman's Hall of Fame careers.
Both teams have the money to get a deal done, but Yamamoto has been tied to New York, either with the Mets or Yankees, pretty much since he expressed his desire to play stateside. He likely ends up playing for one of those franchises.
Prediction: Yamamoto signs long-term with the Yankees
Which Two Teams Are Favorites to Deal for Dylan Cease?
The Chicago White Sox have pulled back on a potential trade for ace Dylan Cease, waiting for the Yamamoto dominoes to fall, knowing their star righty will take on greater value for any team that misses out on the Japanese sensation.
That does not mean there are not two favorites to land Cease already, as Nightengale also reported.
"Atlanta and Baltimore are the current favorites to acquire Cease," he wrote.
Like the Dodgers' desire to acquire Yamamoto, it is really no surprise that the Braves and Orioles would be intrigued at the prospects of adding Cease to their rosters.
Both teams rolled into the playoffs in 2023, the best in their respective leagues. Both were swept in the divisional round, humiliatingly eliminated by teams that took advantage of their pitching deficiencies and hit their way to victory.
Cease had a down year this past season, but that could be said of anyone stuck playing for a White Sox team that was less than good. A Cy Young runner-up in 2022, he finished 2023 with a 4.58 ERA, 214 strikeouts, a WHIP of 1.418, and 2.5 wins above average.
He gave up the most earned runs of his career (90) and second most homers (19), but there is still a special, ace-level pitcher there that both the Braves and Orioles hope they can acquire and retool.
Atlanta, in particular, after failing to hold a single opponent under three runs after September 13.
The Orioles likely have more prospects to entice Chicago with but have been particularly reluctant to make big trades or sign big-money free agents in the past. Despite having a greater need for Cease, and the righty appearing to be a perfect fit in the rotation, it feels like the Braves are more likely of the two to get the deal done.
Prediction: Atlanta adds Cease to a rotation that already includes Spencer Strider and Max Fried
Could Jordan Montgomery Return to the Rangers?
The ever-busy Nightengale also provided an update on the Texas Rangers and Jordan Montgomery, writing "Now that the Texas Rangers will be without ace Max Scherzer for at least a half-season after undergoing back surgery, they are expected to be more aggressive in their pursuit of free-agent starter Jordan Montgomery, who would love to return to Texas."
After being traded from St. Louis midway through the season, Montgomery paid off for the Rangers, with an ERA of 2.79, and a 4-2 record across 67.2 innings pitched. His 4.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio with the Rangers was the second-highest of his career.
He showed up big time for the team in the playoffs, too, with a 2.90 ERA in 31 innings of work during the Rangers' march to their first World Series title.
He brought stability to a rotation that desperately needed it in the late summer months amid the very real possibility that they could miss out on the postseason entirely. It makes sense that the team would want to bring him back and even more so without Scherzer for the foreseeable future.
Yes, the Rangers won the Series based on an explosive offense but baseball is still a game in which pitching is almost always the difference. We saw it in Atlanta, Baltimore, and Los Angeles in the playoffs and it will likely be what separates champions from contenders again in 2024.
The Rangers must take the steps necessary to re-sign Montgomery and show him that they value what he contributed a season ago. More importantly, they value what he can still bring the team moving forward.
Prediction: Montgomery and the Rangers find a way to get it done