NFL Week 16 DFS: Cheap Targets and Pricey Fades on DraftKings Daily Fantasy Football
Week 16 kicked off with a fun one between the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints. The game carried a playoff atmosphere, as both teams are alive in the NFC playoff picture. As one might have expected, the game was largely decided by strong individual performances.
Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua both had stellar games while lifting the Rams to a 30-22 victory.
We're sure to see more standout performances this week, as teams continue to battle for playoff positioning. The week is likely to yield several strong daily fantasy sports (DFS) options as a result.
Below, we'll dive into some of our favorite value plays of Week 16 and examine a few pricey options that represent sizeable risks.
Get the latest DFS values at DraftKings.
Quarterback
Target: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $6,000
Managers looking for a bargain at quarterback should take a long look at Tampa Bay Buccaneers signal-caller Baker Mayfield. Not only did Mayfield pass for 381 yards and four touchdowns in Week 15, but he also has one of the top matchups of this weekend
The Buccaneers will host the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have surrendered the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
While Mayfield is unlikely to replicate the numbers he just had against the Green Bay Packers, it wouldn't be a shock to see him come close.
Fade: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers, $6,500
The Packers, meanwhile, are facing a tough matchup on the road against the Carolina Panthers.
While the Panthers have just two wins on the season, their defense has been decent. Carolina ranks 29th in points allowed but ranks third in passing yards allowed and third in total yards allowed.
With opponents frequently leaning on the run against Carolina, the Panthers have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs in 2023.
Managers looking to lean on a second-tier quarterback option should avoid Jordan Love this week.
Running Back
Target: Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears, $4,800
Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson didn't have a stellar outing last week against the Cleveland Browns. He did get opportunities, though, recording five carries and four receptions for 60 scrimmage yards.
This week, Johnson should have a much easier time gaining ground against the visiting Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Chicago should lean on the run far more than it did against Cleveland, and Johnson has legitimate sleeper potential. He should be considered a bargain play with an extremely high ceiling.
Fade: Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts, $6,500
Indianapolis Colts running back Zack Moss exited with an arm injury last week but will try to play this week, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.
Moss should still be avoided at this price point.
There's also a chance that Jonathan Taylor (thumb) returns for the Colts against the Atlanta Falcons. This isn't a particularly great matchup for either back anyway, as Atlanta has surrendered the second-fewest fantasy points to RBs.
We may see Moss on the field, but he's too risky to see in many DFS lineups.
Wide Receiver
Target: Garrett Wilson, New York Jets, $5,800
With quarterback Zach Wilson in the concussion protocol, the New York Jets are likely to again rely on Trevor Siemian under center. That's not ideal for wide receiver Garrett Wilson, who had just three receptions for 29 yards in Week 15.
The good news is that Wilson and the Jets will face a remarkably soft Washington Commanders pass defense this week. Washington has struggled to defend opposing receivers all season, and after trading Chase Young and Montez Sweat at the deadline, they've struggled to pressure opposing passers too.
The Commanders have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. This makes Wilson worth a flier, even with a shaky quarterback situation.
Fade: Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins, $9,600
Miami Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill (ankle) is expected to return after missing Week 15. While Hill's high floor makes him a reliable option in traditional fantasy leagues, he's too risky at this DFS price point.
For one, Hill may not be close to 100 percent in his return. Secondly, the Dallas Cowboys represent a tough matchup, having allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to receivers.
Lastly, Miami may look to replicate the success the Buffalo Bills had against Dallas in the run game. Bills quarterback Josh Allen completed just seven passes, but Buffalo still ran away with a 31-10 victory.
A pass-heavy approach just isn't in Miami's best interest.
Tight End
Target: Hunter Henry, New England Patriots, $4,100
Turning to Bailey Zappe at quarterback has allowed the New England Patriots to unlock tight end Hunter Henry.
Over the past two weeks, Henry has tallied 10 receptions for 106 yards and three touchdowns. He caught a touchdown pass and reached 40 receiving yards in each of the past two weeks.
This week, Henry and the Patriots will face an improved Denver Broncos defense, but it's one that has struggled against tight ends. No team has allowed more fantasy points to the position over the course of the season.
Fade: George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers, $5,600
We love San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle most weeks but not in this matchup with the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and the Ravens have a stout overall pass defense.
San Francisco should look to lean on Christian McCaffrey and the ground game in this one. The Ravens rank first in net yards per pass attempt allowed but 21st in yards per carry allowed.
While Kittle may still produce, he's a big risk at this price point. Tight ends like T.J. Hockenson ($5.8K) and Trey McBride ($5.7K) are much safer options that won't cost substantially more.
*Fantasy scoring information from FantasyPros.
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