NFL Picks 2023: Early Week 17 Odds to Exploit after Final Week 16 Results

Week 16 brought just a little bit more clarity to the 2023 NFL playoff picture. The Detroit Lions won the NFC North, while the Miami Dolphins clinched a playoff berth. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers took control of the NFC South, while the Cleveland Browns maintained their spot atop the AFC wild-card race.

On Monday night, the Baltimore Ravens rolled over the San Francisco 49ers, potentially declaring Baltimore as the league's team to beat.

Week 17 is going to bring more playoff-relevant contests, and it's going to be a fun slate for fans to consume before the calendar turns to 2024.

Below, we'll dive into some of the latest results, injury information and buzz to identify some of our top wagering opportunities based on the early Week 17 lines.

Check the latest lines at DraftKings.

The Atlanta Falcons got a solid game from quarterback Taylor Heinicke (229 yards, 1 TD) during a 29-10 rout of the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. However, the Falcons are unlikely to get a repeat performance from their veteran backup-turned-starter.

The Chicago Bears defense has been terrific over the second half of the season. It's a swarming unit that can force takeaways in bunches, and it's fully capable of flustering a merely average quarterback like Heinicke.

And while the Falcons would prefer to lean on Bijan Robinson and the ground game, that's unlikely to happen. Chicago's run defense has been strong all season, and the Bears are surrendering just 3.6 yards per carry.

This is likely to be a low-scoring defensive battle, and Justin Fields' dual-threat ability should make the difference. He's improved dramatically as a passer this year, but he's still capable of breaking defenses with his legs.

Fields did exactly that against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday, finishing with 97 yards and a touchdown on nine carries. While Fields might not have such gaudy numbers against Atlanta, he'll do enough to notch a victory.

The Washington Commanders turned to veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett during Week 16, and Brissett immediately sparked the offense. While it wasn't enough to beat the New York Jets, the Commanders erased a 20-point deficit and briefly held a fourth-quarter lead.

Washington looked and played like a different team with the veteran playing in place of Sam Howell. However, it didn't look like a team capable of hanging with San Francisco, even at home.

Cross-country trips are tough for any team, but the 49ers are built to travel. A few weeks ago, they rolled into Philadelphia and upended the Eagles in a 42-19 blowout. This game could yield a similar result, largely because Washington has one of the worst pass defenses in the league.

The 49ers will be eager to bounce back from Monday's loss, and they'll look to take their frustrations out on Washington.

Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and the rest of the 49ers offense will be too much to handle. And whether it's Brissett or Howell under center, Washington doesn't have enough playmakers to keep pace.

The possibility of a trap game does exist, but San Francisco needs the win to secure the NFC's No. 1 seed, so don't expect a 49ers letdown.

Like the 49ers, the Los Angeles Rams face a daunting road trip in Week 17. While the Rams aren't quite on the same level as San Francisco, they're becoming a team that no one will want to face in the postseason.

However, Los Angeles has to keep winning to even reach the playoffs. The Rams are already in playoff mode, and they're unlikely to stumble against the New York Giants.

The emergence of Kyren Williams as a high-volume running back gives the Rams to overcome any sluggish start they might experience on the road. L.A. can lean on its ground game early and eventually allow Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp to take over.

L.A.'s only loss since the Week 10 bye came on the road against the Baltimore Ravens, and the Rams still put up 31 points in that contest. The Rams should at least have similar offensive production against a lesser Giants defense.

While the Giants played more efficiently with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback on Monday, New York doesn't have the skill players needed to keep up.

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