Marlins SP Jesús Luzardo's Top 10 Landing Spots amid MLB Trade Rumors

Miami Marlins left-handed starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo is reportedly drawing trade interest and has three years of team control remaining before he hits free agency.

Given the combination of his low cost ($5.9 million projected salary, per Spotrac), his high-quality production over the past two seasons and the number of years left on his rookie contract, Luzardo just might be the biggest chip on the trade block, provided the Marlins are actually considering dealing him.

If he is available, who are the top suitors?

Based on team need and trade capital, we've ranked the top 10 landing spots for the 26-year-old.

Things are quite fluid with several quality arms still available via free agency. These rankings could change considerably after those remaining unsigned pitchers pick their new homes. But operating under the assumption that Luzardo could be dealt any minute now, here's the current hierarchy of best fits.

One rule right off the bat, though: No trading within the division for this one. Both Atlanta and the New York Mets would love to add another starting pitcher and could probably put together a strong enough package to get Luzardo. But Miami is going to want to ship him out of the NL East rather than face him on a regular basis for the next three years.

According to the trade simulator at BaseballTradeValues.com—we don't always agree with their assessments, but it's a good starting point for drumming up possible trade packages—Jesús Luzardo has a "Median Surplus" value of 63.3, based on the combination of his past production, his projected production, his projected/actual salary and the number of years of team control remaining.

And 63.3 is pretty darn high, particularly for a zero-time All-Star who isn't exactly a household name.

It's nothing compared to the 175-plus marks that Atlanta's Ronald Acuña Jr., Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider all have on those absurdly team-friendly contracts, but 63.3 does suggest that a straight up swap of Luzardo for MLB's No. 1 prospect Jackson Holliday (68.9 median surplus value) would be a pretty fair trade.

That speaks volumes to how quietly great Luzardo has been over the past two years.

He has a 3.52 ERA (3.40 FIP), a 1.15 WHIP and a 10.6 K/9 in 50 starts since the beginning of 2022.

Luzardo was one of just 12 pitchers to reach 205 strikeouts last season (208), and one of just six to do so with a sub-3.60 ERA, joining Blake Snell, Gerrit Cole, Kevin Gausman, Zac Gallen and Luis Castillo on that short list.

He was every bit as good as Corbin Burnes in 2023, if not better. He was absolutely better than Dylan Cease. Yet, there are a lot of misguided fans who would rather their team trade for one year of Burnes or two years of Cease than three years of Luzardo before he hits free agency.

The Marlins got reigning AL batting champ Luis Arráez last winter for two years of Pablo López and a pair of teenage prospects. So for three years of Luzardo—who is arguably better than López—Miami's return could be massive.

As far as the latest rumors are concerned, Luzardo's name popped up in a big way two weeks ago, with The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reporting on Dec. 15 that the Marlins and Royals were trying to work out a deal involving Vinnie Pasquantino. (Who, for what it's worth, has a 41.3 median surplus value on BTV.) We haven't heard any rumblings since then, though, which is surely a byproduct of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Shota Imanaga and other pitchers' availability via free agency.

Once those names are off the board and a couple of teams are left uncomfortable with the state of their rotation, the Luzardo hot stove should heat up again in a big way. Or we could see a smaller-market team make a big move for him now rather than waiting for the deeper-pocketed teams to come calling.

10. Kansas City Royals

Got to at least put Kansas City on the list after it was the suitor specifically linked to Luzardo in mid-December. But after signing Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, do the Royals really need to add another starting pitcher? At the cost of further depleting an offense that has already ranked bottom-six in the AL in runs scored in eight consecutive seasons?

9. Chicago Cubs

If the Cubs manage to re-sign Cody Bellinger, maybe they would be willing to trade Pete Crow-Armstrong for Luzardo. But short of offering PC-A, it's hard to imagine what package they would be able to put together to entice the Marlins.

8. Texas Rangers

With Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tyler Mahle all out for the start of 2024, the reigning champs need some pitching. And trading for Luzardo would somewhat pre-address the fact that Scherzer, Mahle, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray and Andrew Heaney all have either one or two years left on their deals. But are they willing to trade either Evan Carter or Wyatt Langford (and likely a secondary prospect) to accomplish that goal?

7. St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals already traded Tyler O'Neill and signed three veteran starters in Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. But they still have more than enough quality bats to put together an intriguing trade package for Luzardo if they're looking for another ace-caliber arm. At any rate, St. Louis probably would've been No. 1 on this list six weeks ago.

6. Tampa Bay Rays

Isaac Paredes has a median surplus value almost identical to Luzardo's. Even with Wander Franco's future unknown, the Rays might be content with rolling with a combination of Taylor Walls, Osleivis Basabe and Junior Caminero on the left side of the infield if it means adding another quality arm and possibly contending in 2024 even after trading Tyler Glasnow.

Detroit's Current Rotation: Tarik Skubal, Kenta Maeda, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Matt Manning. Alex Faedo, Sawyer Gipson-Long and Reese Olson also in the mix.

Trade Package: Miami sends LHP Jesús Luzardo to Detroit for OF Max Clark and 3B Justyn-Henry Malloy

For what has been a mostly quiet offseason, Detroit has been impressively active, trading for Mark Canha before signing starters Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty and relievers Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller.

But Canha is a free agent after this season. Flaherty, Chafin and Miller all signed one-year deals. And while Maeda's was a two-year contract, it's a bit front-loaded with the understanding that they might not get a whole lot out of the 36-year-old two years from now.

They aren't building for the future. They are trying to win the AL Central for what would be the first time since 2014.

The rotation isn't there quite yet, though. It's a solid top three, but there are major question marks after that.

Adding Luzardo would be huge, possibly even making Detroit the favorite to win the division.

Would the Tigers be willing to part with the No. 3 overall pick in the 2023 draft, though?

If it happens, it wouldn't be the first time a team dealt a high draft pick in a hurry.

The Mets took Jarred Kelenic No. 6 overall in 2018 and traded him to Seattle six months later in the Robinson Canó and Edwin Díaz deal. Two years later, Toronto took Austin Martin at No. 5 overall and barely kept him a year before trading him and Simeon Woods Richardson to Minnesota for José Berríos. And who can forget Dansby Swanson going No. 1 overall to Arizona in 2015 and then getting traded to Atlanta that winter?

So maybe they would give up Max Clark before ever getting much of a chance to see what he can do.

New York's Current Rotation: Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes, Clarke Schmidt, Will Warren.

Trade Package: Miami sends LHP Jesús Luzardo to New York for OF Spencer Jones and C Austin Wells

After giving up a bunch of their best trade chips to acquire Juan Soto, the Yankees don't have many options for prying Luzardo away from the Marlins. If they don't come out swinging with either Anthony Volpe, Jasson Dominguez or top prospect Spencer Jones in the deal, it's not gonna happen.

But after falling short in the bidding war for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, they definitely have a need for a starting pitcher, if not several. Will Warren is just a placeholder in the projected rotation, and they would probably be open to using Clarke Schmidt as a middle/long reliever if they can land two more starters.

So to get Luzardo, perhaps they offer up Jones, 18 months after taking him in the first round of the 2022 draft. And maybe they pair him with Austin Wells, who had a cup of coffee in the majors this past September, hitting four home runs over his final eight games played.

Jones is at least a year away from becoming a legitimate contributor in the majors, but that should be OK with the Marlins. That isn't to say they're punting the upcoming season, but with Sandy Alcantara (Tommy John) out for the year and only Josh Bell and Tanner Scott playing in contract years, they aren't exactly all-in on winning in 2024, either.

They're definitely looking for long-term lineup assets, and both Jones and Wells could fit the bill.

Cincinnati's Current Rotation: Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Graham Ashcraft, Nick Martinez. Connor Phillips and Brandon Williamson also options.

Trade Package: Miami sends LHP Jesús Luzardo to Cincinnati for 3B/SS Noelvi Marté and 1B/3B/OF Spencer Steer

When we put together potential trade landing spots for Cincinnati's 2B Jonathan India just a few days before the Luzardo rumors surfaced, Miami landed at No. 3 on that list.

Might as well put Cincinnati at No. 3 on this one, right?

At that time, we had Edward Cabrera tabbed as the starting pitcher the Marlins might be willing to part with for an infielder who can hit, but Cincinnati certainly has the necessary combination of top prospects and young big leaguers to put together a package for Luzardo.

And goodness knows they need the pitching. Signing Nick Martinez was a nice start, but Luzardo is the type of splash who could make Cincinnati a real threat to win the NL Central in 2024.

Aside from Elly De La Cruz, just about any position player should be on the table here, as the Reds already have a major surplus of infielders after signing Jeimer Candelario.

Both Noelvi Marté and Spencer Steer have at least five years of team control remaining and could be key pieces for years to come in Miami, which is desperate to improve its offensive firepower.

That's a steep price for the Reds, but even without those two hitters in the mix, Cincinnati would still be able to put together a solid lineup.

The Reds would have some combination of De La Cruz, Candelario, Matt McLain, Jonathan India and Christian Encarnacion-Strand between the four infield spots and DH. Tyler Stephenson is still behind the dish, and they'd have an outfield of TJ Friedl, Will Benson and Jake Fraley. Every one of those players is under team control for at least three more years, plus Edwin Arroyo and Cam Collier are in the pipeline for a year or two down the road. Hard to argue with that long-term setup, so it's arguably worth dealing Marté and Steer.

Baltimore's Current Rotation: Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, John Means, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells. Cole Irvin and Bruce Zimmermann also in the mix.

Trade Package: Miami sends LHP Jesús Luzardo to Baltimore for 1B/3B Coby Mayo and C/1B Samuel Basallo

We mentioned earlier that Jesús Luzardo straight up for Jackson Holliday would theoretically be a fair trade. But Baltimore would never do that.

However, the O's do have plenty of other valuable young position players they could dangle to bring the Marlins to the negotiating table.

The big one is Coby Mayo, the No. 27 prospect, per MLB.com, who had a .974 OPS between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk last season, but who doesn't have a clear path to the majors in Baltimore, where the O's already struggling to figure out what to do with the likes of Holliday, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Joey Ortiz.

The O's stockpiled hitting prospects for so long that they now have quite the surplus of them. Mayo has a ton of potential, but they can trade him without skipping a beat.

Mayo wouldn't be enough for a one-for-one swap, but it's a big start. And 19-year-old Samuel Basallo might get the deal across the finish line.

He hit .313 with a .953 OPS across three levels in the minors last season, and Miami sure could use a catcher who can hit. Between Nick Fortes and Jacob Stallings, the Marlins got a .569 OPS from their backstops last season, and proceeded to non-tender Stallings. They don't have any promising catchers in the pipeline, either. And let's just say the O's don't have a great need for a catcher with Adley Rutschman around.

Boston's Current Rotation: Chris Sale, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta.

Trade Package: Miami sends LHP Jesús Luzardo to Boston for SS Marcelo Mayer and C Kyle Teel

Boston has to improve its starting rotation if it wants to contend in 2024.

No ifs, ands or buts about it.

It's just a question of whether the Red Sox will do so via free agency, via trade or both.

They already missed out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola, Eduardo Rodriguez and Sonny Gray, but they could still land Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. If they're able to get either of those lefties, they're probably not going to also unload a top prospect (and more) to bring in Jesús Luzardo.

But given the state of their rotation and the desire to get out of the AL East basement, this is probably the team most desperate to trade for Luzardo.

Marcelo Mayer is a huge ask in this trade. He was Boston's No. 4 overall pick in 2021, though he hasn't had the meteoric rise through the minors that the Red Sox were hoping to see. In fact, he had just a .609 OPS at Double-A Portland last season and might still be at least two years away from the big leagues.

Conversely, Boston's 2023 first-round pick Kyle Teel had a .945 OPS in his nine-game stint at Portland last season and could be in the majors by the end of 2024.

So yeah, we're talking a 2021 first-round pick and a 2023 first-round pick for Luzardo. But he might be worth it for a team that hasn't had a reliable arm in a few years.