NFL Picks Week 17: Best Favorites to Bet Before Odds Change
The Cleveland Browns and New York Jets opened Week 17 on Thursday night in a game that only carried playoff implications for one side. The Browns were favored by more than a touchdown, and despite playing against a terrific Jets defense, they held serve at home for a 37-20 victory.
The rest of this week's schedule is filled with intriguing matchups, many of which could determine the postseason picture.
Below, we'll examine three favorites to trust heading into the weekend, and we'll dive a little bit deeper into their looming matchups.
Check the latest lines at DraftKings.
49ers -13.5 at Commanders
This is a massive line, considering the San Francisco 49ers got blown out by the Baltimore Ravens on Monday. However, the Washington Commanders aren't the Ravens. Defensively, they're not even close.
Washington ranks 23rd in yards per carry allowed, 31st in net yards per pass attempt allowed, 32nd in yards allowed and 32nd in points allowed.
The Commanders defense isn't going to do much to slow Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and the rest of the 49ers offense. Having a steady quarterback in Jacoby Brissett—though he suffered a hamstring injury in Friday's practice—may allow Washington's offense to hang around for a bit, but the Commanders aren't equipped to beat San Francisco in an offensive race.
And if the 49ers get up big early, head coach Kyle Shanahan is unlikely to take his foot off the gas. San Francisco needs this win to stay on top of the race for the NFC's No. 1 seed. The 49ers will also be looking to erase the bad taste of Monday's loss and build some momentum before the postseason.
This has the makings of a two-touchdown victory, at a minimum.
Rams -5.5 at Giants
The Los Angeles Rams are exceeding expectations, perhaps even more than the Browns are. Cleveland at least had the look of a playoff team before injuries struck, while L.A.'s offseason youth movement had the Rams flying under the radar.
After winning five of their last six—and their only loss coming in overtime at Baltimore—the Rams are now in the spotlight. Matthew Stafford is playing at an MVP level, and he has a trio of dangerous playmakers in Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and running back Kyren Williams.
The New York Giants represent a bigger challenge with Tyrod Taylor under center instead of Tommy DeVito. Taylor is experienced, and he's a capable dual-threat. The trip from L.A. to New Jersey could also lead the Rams to a sluggish start.
However, this is not a huge line for a team that has to keep winning to secure a playoff berth. The Rams know they have to give this one 100 percent focus, and the Rams are the better team.
Expect Stafford, Kupp, Nacua and Williams to knife through a Giants defense ranked 28th in yards allowed and 27th in points allowed. The Giants can keep it close, but the Rams have enough punch to pull away late.
Texans -4 Versus Titans
The Tennessee Titans may be playing for pride this weekend, but the Houston Texans are playing for their playoff lives. They have a shot at the AFC South title, but they have to win out to secure it.
Two weeks ago, Houston outlasted Tennessee in a 19-16 overtime contest. That was with Case Keenum at quarterback. In the rematch, rookie star C.J. Stroud is set to make his return from a concussion.
"It wasn't easy. But my teammates held it down as best as they could and I appreciate them for that. I'm back and happy to be here," Stroud said, per ESPN's DJ Bien-Aime.
Stroud, who was the clear front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year before his injury, gives Houston a big edge offensively. He also gives the Texans a potential mismatch against a Titans pass defense ranked 21st in net yards per pass attempt allowed.
Houston is at home and has far more at stake than Tennessee has. Expect the Texans to bounce back from last week's loss in Cleveland and remind the rest of the AFC that Houston is a legitimate playoff threat.
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