Realistic MLB Trades That Could Happen Before 2024 Spring Training

Trades in Major League Baseball don't necessarily have to be predictable in order to come true. Case in point, nobody expected Chris Sale to get traded until, suddenly, he was.

All the same, it's best if one tries to be realistic if one is going to pitch some trades.

This was my mantra as I sat down to ponder eight trades that could conceivably happen between now and the start of spring training. The trick was to think up logical fits while, when possible, incorporating reports on teams and players relevant to the trade market.

As always, it's the concepts that matter more than the specific proposals I've come up with. Either way, take it all for what it's worth. Maybe one or two of these will prove to be prescient.

In any case, let's count down these eight trades in order of how big of an impact they would make.

Trade Proposal: San Francisco Giants get SS/CF Ceddanne Rafaela; Boston Red Sox get RHP Keaton Winn, RHP Tristan Beck

Why It Makes Sense for the Giants

Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Giants could be willing to deal from their surplus of young pitchers to land "young, athletic position players who can defend."

Courtesy of Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, we also know that the Giants are specifically monitoring the trade market for shortstops. Willy Adames is the big prize there, yet his post-2024 free agency is suboptimal for a fringe contender like the Giants.

So, how about Rafaela instead? The 23-year-old is widely considered a top-100 prospect, mostly on account of how he's a plus defender as a shortstop and as a center fielder. And after he made his MLB debut this past season, the Giants could plug him in right away.

Why It Makes Sense for the Red Sox

For their part, the Red Sox have a surplus of young outfielders, and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that they're willing to subtract from it on the trade market.

To this end, Rafaela is clearly the best candidate to go. As valuable as he is in the abstract, he's blocked by Trevor Story at shortstop and by Jarren Duran in center field.

Winn and Beck, meanwhile, both have major league experience and are under club control for the foreseeable future. Both of them throw hard, with Beck notably having possessed the best fastball of any Giants hurler in 2023.

Trade Proposal: Texas Rangers get RHP Kenley Jansen, cash; Boston Red Sox get RHP Jack Leiter

Why It Makes Sense for the Rangers

Before we get to why Jansen might be available, let's first grant that the Rangers need a closer. And they know it.

As Jim Bowden of The Athletic reported (via the CBS Sports HQ), the Rangers are in on five-time All-Star closer Josh Hader in free agency. He's not their top priority, though, nor do they want to do a nine-figure deal with the left-hander.

If so, Jansen represents a low-risk pivot. He's obviously a four-time All-Star in his own right, but his value is such that the Red Sox probably can't move him without eating a chunk of his $16 million salary.

Why It Makes Sense for the Red Sox

Meanwhile in Boston, said salary is precisely the reason why Jansen could be had in a trade.

Even after the team offloaded Sale, Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the Red Sox "appear to be looking to move some money." He further says that Jansen is the "obvious candidate" to go, in part because Boston has in-house candidates who could take his spot.

It's hard to imagine the Red Sox getting a name-brand prospect for Jansen, in which case a Vaughn Grissom-style lottery ticket may have to suffice. Leiter would be quite the get in this regard. For all the bad times he's had in two seasons as a pro, it wasn't even three years ago that he was the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft.

Trade Proposal: Seattle Mariners get 2B/3B Jorge Polanco, RF Max Kepler, cash; Minnesota Twins get RHP Bryan Woo

Why It Makes Sense for the Mariners

The Mariners wouldn't need bats if they hadn't traded Jarred Kelenic and Eugenio Suárez, but, well, they did.

Given that they specifically need hitters to plug in at either third base or second base and in right field, the Mariners are a prospective fit for both Polanco and for Kepler. They also have what the Twins need in the wake of Sonny Gray's departure, which is an impact pitcher.

Granted, it's hard to see the Mariners taking on a combined $20.5 million in salaries so soon after dumping Suárez and his $11.3 million. But if the Twins were to eat, say, half that money, it would be worth it for Seattle to part with Woo.

Why It Makes Sense for the Twins

Whereas Woo is only ticketed to be the No. 5 starter in the Mariners rotation, he'd be no worse than the No. 4 starter in the Twins rotation ahead of Chris Paddack or Louie Varland.

This alone would arguably make it worth it for the Twins to do this deal, though it would otherwise be a benefit that they'd still be dumping salary even if they were to eat some of the money owed to Polanco and Kepler.

That would give the front office some flexibility going into the season, whereas it doesn't have a whole lot right now in the face of a mandate to cut payroll.

Trade Proposal: Miami Marlins get 2B Jonathan India; Cincinnati Reds get RHP Edward Cabrera

Why It Makes Sense for the Reds

If India wasn't expendable at the outset of the offseason, he should be now after the Reds further loaded up their infield via a deal with Jeimer Candelario.

And per MLB Network's Jon Morosi, the market for the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year is robust:

Even after their deals with Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez, there's still sense in the Reds trading India for a pitcher. And if the 25-year-old Cabrera was said pitcher, Cincinnati would have yet another live-armed, high-upside youngster in a rotation that's already full of 'em.

Why It Makes Sense for the Marlins

It's a tale as old as time itself: The offseason begins, and teams begin clamoring for the Marlins' young starters.

Though Cabrera isn't the best of the bunch, he would seem to be the most expendable on account of how his high-octane stuff comes with red flags concerning his control and durability. If Miami can turn him into an upgrade for what was the lowest-scoring offense in the NL last season, it should.

Though his stock has fallen since 2021, India is just that. And there's no reason to fret about how he and Luis Arraez play the same position. The latter fits better at first base, just as Josh Bell fits best at designated hitter.

Trade Proposal: Toronto Blue Jays get SS Willy Adames; Milwaukee Brewers get 3B/SS Orelvis Martinez

Why It Makes Sense for the Blue Jays

The Blue Jays already have a pretty good shortstop in Bo Bichette, but that hasn't kept them from being linked to Adames.

First it was by Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca back in October. More recently, Morosi parroted the concept on MLB Network last month:

If nothing else, a trade for Adames would track with the Blue Jays' known desire to keep adding bats even after signing Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. And after missing out on Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, they frankly owe their fans a splash.

Why It Makes Sense for the Brewers

Lest anyone imagine a trade in which Adames and 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes are packaged together, Morosi also noted in his report that they're more likely to move separately.

There's no harm in that, as both have ample value on their own despite being slated for free agency after 2024. For his part, the down year Adames had in 2023 shouldn't obscure his 25-to-30-homer power or his elite defense.

Indeed, he should have enough value to score Martinez in a one-for-one swap. Even despite questions about where he fits defensively, the 22-year-old is a top-100 prospect whose bat could make an impact in the majors as soon as this year.

Trade Proposal: Chicago Cubs get RHP Shane Bieber, RHP Trevor Stephan; Cleveland Guardians get INF/OF Christopher Morel

Why It Makes Sense for the Cubs

It's been a quiet winter for the Cubs, though not because they're uninterested in making noise. Even setting aside their failed pursuit of Ohtani and their ongoing pursuit of Cody Bellinger, Morosi reported in November that they've kicked the tires on two aces:

Tyler Glasnow is no longer available, but Bieber still is and would still fit in the hole that Marcus Stroman left in the Cubs rotation when he opted out of his contract.

Just as he would have been in a Glasnow deal, Morel would be a sensible centerpiece in a Bieber deal. But the righty's looming free agency after 2024 should embolden the Cubs to push for another piece, in which case Stephan would suit them as a bullpen upgrade.

Why It Makes Sense for the Guardians

From the Guardians' perspective, one of the best things about Morel is that he isn't arbitration-eligible until 2026 and due for free agency until after 2028.

Even better than that, though, is that he's a solid supply of power. He has 42 home runs in 220 career games in the majors, with 26 of those coming in just 107 contests last season.

Plenty of teams could use a bat like that, but none more than a Guardians team that produced a league-low 124 long balls in 2023. If the price is one year of Bieber and at least three years of Stephan, so be it.

Trade Proposal: Baltimore Orioles get RHP Dylan Cease; Chicago White Sox get OF Heston Kjerstad, C/1B Samuel Basallo, 2B/OF Connor Norby

Why It Makes Sense for the Orioles

Bob Nightengale of USA Today had an interesting report in December, in which he said the "current favorites" for Cease were Atlanta and the Orioles.

Could this mean that the Orioles are now alone in the lead after Atlanta acquired Sale? Nobody is saying that, but the possibility that it may be true isn't the only reason the O's should be feeling good about their chances.

They can also still hope to entice the White Sox with prospects from their No. 1-ranked farm system. And if they can get Cease without surrendering Jackson Holliday or Colton Cowser, it would have to be considered a steal.

Why It Makes Sense for the White Sox

That the White Sox are eventually going to trade Cease doesn't seem to be in much doubt. Whenever they're ready to contend again, chances are it will be after Cease's club control runs out in 2025.

The question, then, is how to maximize his value. And given how many holes they have, there would be sense in them turning Cease into several big fish rather than one gargantuan-sized one.

To this end, the trade I've proposed would net Chicago the No. 3, No. 5 and No. 7 prospects in Baltimore's system as ranked by MLB.com. And, just as importantly, all three could fill areas where the White Sox have major needs as soon as this season.

Trade Proposal: New York Yankees get RHP Corbin Burnes; Milwaukee Brewers get OF Everson Pereira, RHP Chase Hampton, INF Oswaldo Cabrera

Why It Makes Sense for the Yankees

The Yankees gave up a promising pitcher when they dealt Michael King to the San Diego Padres as part of the Juan Soto deal. The trade-off was supposed to be an even better, even younger pitcher coming aboard when they signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Since this didn't happen, the appeal of a Burnes trade is simple: He's the best pitcher the Yankees can hope to acquire this winter.

The cost wouldn't be easy to swallow, especially considering that Burnes is due for free agency after 2024. But if the Yankees can get him without giving up Jasson Domínguez or Spencer Jones, they should.

Why It Makes Sense for the Brewers

To be fair, it's harder to imagine the Brewers trading Burnes now than it was before Brandon Woodruff had shoulder surgery and was non-tendered. But it still seems likely, in part because extending him is basically out of the question.

Like with the White Sox and Cease, the number of holes in the Brewers' roster behooves them to turn their most valuable asset into as many talented players as possible. Trading Burnes to the Yankees may not be their best avenue in this respect, but they could do worse.

To wit, MLB.com has Pereira and Hampton ranked as top-100 guys. And as throw-ins go, Cabrera would be a good one on account of his defensive versatility and history of offensive production in the minors.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.