Updated Cody Bellinger Landing Spots and Predictions Amid Latest MLB Rumors

Cody Bellinger was going to be one of the top players available in free agency, so our first look at his future came in October before the offseason market was even open.

Enough has changed since then to necessitate a fresh look at, well, everything.

For starters, Bellinger is probably going to cash in more than originally expected. And that's not entirely inappropriate, given he's a highly decorated player coming off a strong season and is only 28 years old.

Yet his market also seems oddly small at this juncture. He has speculative fits aplenty, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today has indicated that only the Chicago Cubs have expressed "strong interest" in him.

All this calls for a deeper dive into Bellinger's value and his best potential landing spots. After all that, we'll end with a prediction for where he'll end up and what contract he'll receive.

When I originally assessed Bellinger's potential value in free agency, I looked at the eight-year, $162 million contract Brandon Nimmo signed last winter as a possible guideline.

Well, it's out there now that Bellinger and agent Scott Boras are aiming much higher. Per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the floor is $200 million, while Nightengale went higher at $250 million.

If so, MLB Trade Rumors' projection of a 12-year, $264 million contract for Bellinger may not be so outrageous after all. And in the abstract, that would be a deal befitting a guy who has a Rookie of the Year, an MVP, two All-Star selections, a Gold Glove, two Silver Sluggers and a World Series ring.

The big concern with Bellinger is that, though he finished last year with an .881 OPS and 26 home runs, he didn't hit the ball all that hard. But that concern is overblown, as last year's poor contact quality was part intentional and, seemingly, part injury-related.

Otherwise, there's not much to complain about with him. He's a good defender in both center field and at first base, with an offensive profile consisting of a good bat-to-ball skill, speed and, yes, power.

Yet, once the New York Yankees made trades for Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo, Bellinger's best hypothetical fit came off the board. And of the fits that are still out there for him, none are perfect.

All the same, let's size them up one at a time.

Note: All center field WAR for 2023 is from Baseball Reference, with 2024 roster projections courtesy of RosterResource at FanGraphs.

2023 Center Field WAR: 3.1 (10th)

2024 Projected Center Fielder: Leody Taveras

To be fair to Taveras, the Rangers aren't held back all that much by having him in center field. He's a plus defender who has tallied 17 Outs Above Average since 2021.

It's just that it's more fun to imagine the Rangers with Bellinger in center field instead.

The World Series champions wouldn't lose much, if anything, defensively if such a scenario played out. And they would stand to gain much offensively, as Bellinger outpaced Taveras, who had a .733 OPS and 14 each of home runs and stolen bases, in every major offensive category in 2023.

There's been nothing solid connecting Bellinger and the Rangers, though, and there are good reasons for that. Their lineup is fine as it is, and they need both starting and relief pitching. And their local TV situation may leave them be working on a limited budget.

2023 Center Field WAR: 1.9 (22nd)

2024 Projected Center Fielder: José Azocar

The trade that sent Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees was an obvious cost-cutting maneuver on the Padres' part, but at least they've been willing to reinvest the savings.

They've already signed relievers Yuki Matsui and Woo Suk Go, albeit on deals worth $5.6 and $2.3 million annually, respectively. They also tried to make a bigger splash on outfielder Jung Hoo Lee, who got $113 million from the San Francisco Giants.

Could the pursuit of Lee indicate San Diego is aware that Azocar isn't an ideal option for center field? If so, Bellinger remains the biggest possible upgrade, and there would be the bonus of his left-handed stick balancing a lineup that currently leans right.

It doesn't take much for this concept to fall apart, though. If they couldn't get Lee, it's hard to imagine the Padres spending more than twice as much on Bellinger. Maybe in past winters, of course, but not one in which the club may want to get its payroll below $200 million.

2023 Center Field WAR: 4.6 (4th)

2024 Projected Center Fielder: Johan Rojas

A Boras client signing a big deal with the Phillies? If that sounds familiar, it's because he got them to pay $330 million for Bryce Harper and $100 million for Nick Castellanos.

Meanwhile, the Phillies have been in a spending mood this winter. Both officially in the sense that they re-signed Aaron Nola for $172 million, and unofficially in the sense that they were in on Yoshinobu Yamamoto before he collected $325 million from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

If there is indeed more money waiting to be spent on the Phillies' part, Bellinger offers an intriguing target for it. Brandon Marsh did good work for them in center field last year, but he's now needed in left field by way of Kyle Schwarber's full-time move to designated hitter.

Yet, if the Phillies are in on Bellinger, everyone is in the dark. There's been no solid reporting linking the two sides, which could indicate that they are fine with Rojas in center.

2023 Center Field WAR: 3.9 (6th)

2024 Projected Center Fielder: Mike Trout

The Angels have gotten by far the most WAR out of center field since 2012, which was not coincidentally the year that Mike Trout began his lasting stint as baseball's best player.

But, alas, the 32-year-old is neither as young nor as durable as he used to be. Moving him off center field to a corner spot could hypothetically slow his aging curve and, at least on paper, there's no better way for the Angels to do that than by signing Bellinger.

This seems eminently doable. The Angels have been adamant that they're not rebuilding this winter, and there happens to be a $63 million gap between what they spent in 2023 and what they project to spend in 2024.

As with the Phillies, though, there's nothing solid linking L.A. to Bellinger. It's much more focused on pitching, particularly two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, who is the club's "top priority," according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.

2023 Center Field WAR: 5.0 (2nd)

2024 Projected Center Fielder: Kevin Kiermaier

It wasn't long ago that the Blue Jays seemed like the best possible fit for Bellinger, but that changed when they restocked their outfield by re-signing Kiermaier.

Or did it? According to Nightengale, Bellinger is still somewhere on Toronto's radar:

This would indicate that the Blue Jays realize they still need to upgrade their offense after signing Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who are both glove-first players. And Bellinger need not fit with them as an everyday outfielder, as it's possible he could bump Vladimir Guerrero Jr. off first base into the DH slot.

Still, signing Bellinger to mostly play the cold corner would be a waste of his athletic abilities. And if the club's reported interest in Joc Pederson is any indication, it seems the Blue Jays would sooner just sign an actual DH.

2023 Center Field WAR: 5.5 (1st)

2024 Projected Center Fielder: Julio Rodríguez

Unless Rodríguez vanishes into thin air or something, the Mariners obviously don't need a center fielder. But with Jarred Kelenic and Teoscar Hernández out of the picture, they do need guys to flank him in the outfield.

Enter Bellinger? Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported in December after the Kelenic trade that the Mariners have at least considered it:

Bellinger is hardly unfamiliar with right field, having started 102 games out there in his MVP-winning season in 2019. That could appeal to the Mariners, though it may appeal to them more that he is precisely the sort of high-contact hitter they're known to want.

However, Seattle's acquisitions of Luke Raley and Mitch Haniger may have nixed its need for Bellinger. And because this is another team with uncertainty in its local TV situation, whether it could afford him anyway is another question.

2023 Center Field WAR: 0.7 (29th)

2024 Projected Center Fielder: Jung Hoo Lee

Before he became the Giants' president of baseball operations, Farhan Zaidi worked under Andrew Friedman with the Dodgers between 2014 and 2018. In that time, he watched Bellinger graduate from top prospect to bona fide star.

Simply on this account, it wasn't surprising when Slusser reported in December that Bellinger is of interest to Zaidi and the Giants:

The fit for Bellinger in San Francisco isn't quite as obvious following the club's deal with Lee, but it's still there. He could rotate between center field, right field and first base, all while upgrading an offense that finished second-last in the National League in runs in 2023.

As it is any time the Giants pursue an offensive player, the question is how amenable Bellinger is to Oracle Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions. But since he has other skills besides power, it's possible that won't be a deal-breaker if the Giants make a good enough offer.

2023 Center Field WAR: 4.1 (5th)

2024 Projected Center Fielder: Mike Tauchman

Prior to Toronto's deal with Kiermaier, Heyman did a B/R live stream in which he tabbed the Cubs and Blue Jays as the "likeliest" fits for Bellinger:

But in case anyone thinks the Cubs are a lock to sign Bellinger now that the Jays' outfield is filled up, Heyman reported last Thursday that the two sides are "still apart in talks." Boras, it seems, is driving a hard bargain.

The Cubs have at least one good excuse not to give in, and it's that re-signing Bellinger would block top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong from taking over in center field. Unless, of course, the plan was to play Bellinger at first, which would diminish his on-field value.

Such concerns shouldn't get the Cubs to back off, though. They know from 2023 that Bellinger can succeed in Chicago. And given that they should have won more than 83 games, they have a much better chance of contending with him around.

Bellinger Will Sign With...

The Giants.

The Cubs are the more obvious choice, but one can imagine the Giants being more desperate. They have a greater need for an impact hitter, which is to say nothing of their mindset after miss after miss after miss after miss after miss after miss on high-profile pursuits.

Besides, if Bellinger has any sour grapes about how things ended for him with the Dodgers, joining their archrival would be some way for him to exact revenge.

And His Contract Will Be...

11 years, $250 million.

Bellinger's market is slimmer than it ought to be, but he's been the best hitter on the market since Shohei Ohtani came off the board. And if for no other reason than it would basically be an inflation-adjusted version of Christian Yelich's guarantee, $250 million is a reasonable target.

As to the length, a 10-year deal is more feasible than an 11-year one, but I'm assuming another year could be tacked on for the sake of watering down the average annual value. That's a thing these days.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.