Way-Too-Early 2024 College Football Head Coach Hot Seat Predictions

While the 2023 season has brought no fewer than 25 openings, another busy coaching carousel will likely be ahead in 2024.

The beginning of the campaign is still seven-plus months away, yet a half-dozen hot seats are already clear. Headlined by Florida's Billy Napier, three of them belong to coaches at SEC programs.

Before we move on: This discussion, especially so early in the year, is not an enjoyable topic. These are real people with families, and everyone—not solely the coach—is subject to hearing and reading about how a person may have limited job security. That cannot be fun.

It is, nonetheless, the reality of college football.

The choices are subjective but focus on power-conference coaches who are entering at least a third season.

Prior to Sam Pittman's arrival, Arkansas endured back-to-back seasons of zero SEC victories with 2-10 records.

The former offensive line coach at Georgia, Pittman immediately oversaw a terrific rise. Arkansas went 3-7 in the abbreviated 2020 campaign and jumped to 9-4 with an Outback Bowl victory in 2021. The arrow was decidedly pointed up in Fayetteville.

Well, we thought so.

Arkansas dipped to 7-6 in 2022 before falling to 4-8 in 2023, a season with a single conference win. Still, the school announced in November that Pittman would return in 2024.

The glass-half-full perspective is that Arkansas lost to ranked opponents LSU, Ole Miss and Alabama by a combined 13 points early in the year. The opposite view is Auburn and Missouri both wrecked the Hogs by 34 points or more during the final month of the season.

Pittman has done a decent job overall, but his tenure is entering the dreaded make-or-break stage.

Dave Aranda has mirrored Pittman's results, although the context of Baylor's situation is pretty interesting.

Aranda succeeded Matt Rhule, who headed to the NFL's Carolina Panthers. Rhule oversaw an 11-3 team in 2019, but Aranda coached a mini-rebuild to a 2-7 mark in 2020—before the Bears leapt to a Big 12 title and Sugar Bowl triumph to register a 12-2 record.

You know, typical stuff.

The issue is that Baylor has since tumbled to 6-7 and 3-9 in the last two years, respectively. This past season in particular, both the offense and defense finished below 100th in scoring.

Aranda might be able to withstand a competitive 5-7 year, but a return to a bowl would certainly be helpful.

Billy Napier undoubtedly is feeling the pressure.

Florida bailed on Dan Mullen in 2021 when the Gators ultimately finished with a 6-7 record. They pivoted to Napier after he guided Louisiana to three straight 10-win years and a Sun Belt championship.

In two years, though, Florida has mustered a 6-7 record with a lopsided Las Vegas Bowl result that opened the offseason on a sour note. His second year looked more promising with a 5-2 start, but five consecutive losses sent the Gators on a tumble to 5-7.

Throw in a few last-cycle recruiting departures—worse yet, to in-state foe Miami and several SEC schools—and Napier meandered through a brutal final two months.

Oh, and UF opens the 2024 campaign with Miami and closes the season opposite Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State.

Napier is firmly, uncomfortably on the hot seat.

Pat Narduzzi is a prime example of deciding how much greener the grass needs to be.

Through nine years at Pitt, he holds a respectable 65-50 record. The program has attained bowl eligibility in seven of those seasons and just celebrated an ACC championship in 2021.

In other words, his teams traditionally hover around seven or eight wins. That's long been a standard range for the school, too.

The question, then, is simple: Are the Panthers comfortable with the risk of trading a decently high floor in hopes of a higher ceiling but seeing it devolve the other way? Using the upcoming 12-team format, Pitt would have one College Football Playoff trip in his nine seasons. Is that enough for the program? There's a legitimate case either way.

Narduzzi likely can side-step these conversations if Pitt rises from a disappointing 3-9 record to a bowl appearance. If not, this discussion will be very real in November.

Chip Kelly rightfully will be remembered for revolutionizing the pace at which college football is played.

So, the greatest irony of the Bruins' eight-win season in 2023 is that the offense had a pretty awful year. UCLA averaged a modest 26.5 points per game, which ranked 70th in the nation. Even worse, three different quarterbacks logged a start this season.

Where do the Bruins go from here?

Specifically, the answer is the Big Ten. Perhaps the transition to a new conference is why UCLA elected to keep Kelly, who sports a 35-34 record in six years—but also has three straight eight-win seasons.

The program's debut season outside of the Pac-12 will be very impactful in shaping Kelly's future.

Yes, he knew the challenge. Vanderbilt, though, is a thankless job because of its enormously difficult position.

The SEC is relentless—and only getting more difficult.

Save for James Franklin's pair of 9-4 seasons in 2012-13, Vandy has been a cellar-dweller in the SEC for decades. Clark Lea followed Derek Mason, who went 27-55 in six-plus years. Lea's three seasons have resulted in a 9-27 overall mark and a 2-20 record in conference play.

The reality is Vanderbilt has little appealing history and high academic standards. It's a rough combination even for an alumnus like Lea.

However, he recently fired offensive coordinator Joey Lynch and plans to take over play-calling duties from defensive coordinator Nick Howell in 2024. That sequence screams that Lea sits on a hot seat.

Vanderbilt should err on the side of patience, but a third winless SEC record in his four seasons would be tough to stomach.