Updated Blake Snell Landing Spots and Predictions Amid Latest MLB Rumors

Pitchers and catchers will report to spring training in less than a month, but where in the world will reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell be going?

A little over two months ago, we put together a ranking of the 11 likeliest landing spots for Snell, rather assuming the coveted lefty would be one of the first pitchers off the board on a nine-figure deal.

But while things have changed for a lot of teams around the league, he is still available, playing a bit of a risky waiting game, still requesting a ton of money.

We'll get into the latest news on his asking price and his rumored suitors before providing an updated ranking of the contenders who could be positioned to sign him.

It's a shorter list than before, but there could still be quite the bidding war for his strikeout prowess.

USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported on Jan. 14 that Snell wants "a contract that will pay him at least $240 million, and now awaits to see what team blinks first."

Whether Snell envisions that money coming in the form of a six-year deal for $40 million a pop, an eight-year deal with a $30 million AAV or some sort of heavily-deferred deal like the one Shohei Ohtani got, we don't know.

But the relevance of that "at least $240 million" request is kind of obvious, right?

At the same age (31) during the 2019-20 offseason, Stephen Strasburg (also repped by Scott Boras) signed a seven-year, $245 million contract—and he wasn't a two-time Cy Young winner, and that was four years ago before MLB contracts skyrocketed.

If Yoshinobu Yamamoto is worth $325 million before ever throwing a pitch in the majors, surely someone should be able to find a quarter of a billion dollars for a proven ace who dominated the majors in both 2018 and 2023.

Or at least that's what Snell and his representatives are thinking.

It remains to be seen if that will actually happen.

The Yankees—who are/were desperate to add some starting pitching this winter, and who reportedly offered $300 million for Yamamoto—didn't come remotely close to matching what Snell wanted. Nightengale reported that their "introductory offer" was for nearly $100 million less than what he is seeking.

For what it's worth, around $140 million was expected for Snell when the offseason began. In the mid-November ranking of his landing spots, contract projections from four different sources were used (ESPN, Spotrac, The Athletic and MLB Trade Rumors) with the average of those four projections coming in at 5.75 years for $25.3675 million per year—or $146 million.

Of course, those projections were based on perceived market value, player comps, age and the like, as opposed to insider information on what Snell felt he was worth.

As far as team-based rumors go, the Yankees are said to be likely out on Snell after signing Marcus Stroman. A similar story for the Giants after they signed Jordan Hicks, and the Blue Jays are "quietly monitoring" his market (per Nightengale), but have since signed Yariel Rodriguez and might be out on Snell now, too.

Are those teams really content without Snell, though? And are we ever going to get any rumors about who does want to sign him?

In addition to our top five landing spots, here are five other teams who could feasibly go after Snell, listed in alphabetical order:

Baltimore Orioles

It's never going to happen, but it should. Because if the Orioles aren't going to lock up the likes of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday on long-term deals before they are hopelessly priced out of Baltimore's budget, they should at least make sure to give themselves the best possible chance of winning a World Series before those young stars reach free agency four years from now. Signing an ace like Snell would do exactly that.

Los Angeles Dodgers

When talking about a top free agent, it is required to at least mention the Dodgers. They were No. 2 on the November list, but that was before the acquisitions of Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow. At this point, signing Snell just doesn't make much sense. If they're spending big on anyone else, it's most likely for premier closer Josh Hader.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies haven't done a single thing since re-signing Aaron Nola two months ago, but they keep popping up as a candidate to make another big splash for Snell, Hader or Jordan Montgomery. Hard to imagine where they're finding that type of money when they already have eight guys on the hook for at least $18 million each in 2024, but we'll throw them on the list here.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners previously cracked our rankings at No. 11 solely because they had the hometown advantage, with T-Mobile Park located just 13 miles from where Snell pitched in high school. Signing him does feel more plausible than it did two months ago after trading Robbie Ray to rid themselves of a long-term expense. Still feels like a long shot with the perception that Seattle is making moves with budget concerns top of mind.

Toronto Blue Jays

Though they were reported to be quietly monitoring Snell's market, this potential marriage never made a whole lot of sense. And it appears even less likely to happen after the Blue Jays signed Yariel Rodríguez to a four-year deal earlier this week. Including Alek Manoah, top prospect Ricky Tiedemann and the four primary starters from last year, the Jays now have seven viable starters and should focus any remaining spending on upgrading their bats.

Previous Rank: 9

The Yankees already have the highest payroll for 2024, pulling slightly ahead of the New York Mets after signing Marcus Stroman and reaching agreements with all of their arbitration-eligible players.

Because of that, common sense says the Stroman signing was likely the last even remotely big splash the Yankees are going to make this offseason.

At the same time, though, they were fully prepared to give Yoshinobu Yamamoto $300 million—and that was even after they traded for Juan Soto and had a pretty good idea what he was going to cost them in 2024.

The only money they've spent since making that $300 million offer to Yamamoto was the $37 million they gave to Stroman.

So, why couldn't they go for broke and sign Snell?

They did make him an offer shortly before signing Stroman and were reportedly nowhere close to meeting Snell's demands. But maybe his demands will go down as spring training approaches. Or perhaps New York's willingness to spend on Snell will increase as it remembers just how disappointing the non-Gerrit Cole portion of the rotation was in 2023.

Speaking of Cole, his contract is a massive variable in their long-term plans. He has an opt-out clause next winter in which he could leave $144 million on the table in pursuit of more money elsewhere—which he almost certainly will do if he's anywhere near as good in 2024 as he was in 2023.

Between that and the possibility they lose Soto to free agency after just one year, they might be motivated to sign Snell to a long-term deal just to have something certain beyond Aaron Judge.

In the end, though, it really just depends on how egregiously they feel like exceeding the luxury tax this year. And as they try to avoid what would be a 15-year drought without a World Series title, the answer might be "very egregiously."

Previous Rank: 5

San Diego's reported offseason goal from back in September was to reduce its 2024 Opening Day payroll from last year's mark of nearly $250 million to $200 million.

But do my eyes deceive me or have they now "over-slashed" their budget to the point where they could afford to re-sign Blake Snell?

Trading away Soto and Trent Grisham saved them $36.5 million. Having Seth Lugo, Nick Martinez and Michael Wacha all decline their options saved another $30 million-ish, as did having both Snell ($16.6 million salary in 2023) and Josh Hader ($14.1 million) hit free agency. They also traded away Scott Barlow and Matt Carpenter, saving another $12 million.

Add it all up, and the Padres have an estimated payroll of $156.8 million right now.

So, yeah, even if Snell is demanding a $40 million salary, they could theoretically make it happen. And if it's closer to a $30 million AAV, that is absolutely within the realm of possibility.

And we know he pitches well in Petco Park. In 43 career starts there, he has a 2.87 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 12.4 K/9—compared to still-good-but-not-as-elite marks of 3.30, 1.27 and 10.7, respectively, in all other venues.

All that said, San Diego might be reluctant to increase its long-term spending in light of the ongoing uncertainty with its broadcasting rights and the revenue stream that comes from it. Diamond/Bally Sports dropped the Padres in the middle of last season. MLB is now directly broadcasting their games through 2024, but anything beyond that is unknown at this point. Signing another player to a nine-figure contract might not be doable right now.

(Worth noting: After extending him a qualifying offer, San Diego gets a compensatory draft pick if Snell signs anywhere else. The Padres wouldn't get that pick if they re-sign him. But it's not like detail would be what keeps them from making the huge investment.)

Previous Rank: 3

Here's a snippet from previous rationale in having Boston so high on the list: "They have finished dead last in the AL East in each of the past two seasons and now have a new chief baseball operator with Craig Breslow replacing Chaim Bloom. They are probably desperate to do something significant this offseason, which might make them the most likely candidate to overspend—whether in terms of salary or number of years—on Snell."

In the 10 weeks or so since then, however, the once-seemingly desperate Red Sox have done little.

They traded Alex Verdugo's expiring contract to replace it with Tyler O'Neill's expiring contract, and then traded Chris Sale (for Vaughn Grissom) before the ink had even dried on their Lucas Giolito signing.

And that's about it.

They are no better equipped to contend in 2024 than they were when it took them forever and a day to get Breslow to take the job in the first place.

But landing Snell could change that in a hurry.

As far as available budget is concerned, the Red Sox have an estimated payroll of $180 million, good for 10th-highest in the majors, but are still at least one massive salary away from even sniffing the $237 million competitive balance tax threshold.

Per Cot's Contracts, Boston ranked top-eight in the majors in Opening Day payroll in every year from 2000 to 2022 before dipping to 12th this past season. That includes a mark north of $230 million in each of 2018 and 2019.

Long story short, yes, Boston absolutely can afford to sign Snell if it wants him.

And if it doesn't want him, what exactly is the plan here?

The Red Sox pitching staff was dreadful last season, and the White Sox, Angels and Guardians can all attest that Giolito might only make matters worse. To legitimately contend in the AL East, they needed to upgrade the starting rotation this offseason, and that simply has not happened.

I'm not saying the Red Sox should just hand Snell a blank check, but there will be a lot of well-deserved backlash if they don't sign either him or Jordan Montgomery. (Asking the fans to be patient isn't going to cut it.)

Previous Rank: Not Included

In November there were reports coming out of Anaheim that the Angels intended to improve the team, as opposed to early offseason speculation that they might try to trade Mike Trout and embrace a rebuild.

"We're going to be aggressive this offseason and we're going to make this team better," said GM Perry Minasian.

"Our whole focus is gonna be to run the [AL] West down," said new manager Ron Washington. "And you can take that to the bank and deposit it."

Thus far, however, that has been just a bunch of hot air.

All they've managed to do is sign four pitchers (Luis Garcia, Adam Cimber, Zach Plesac and Adam Kolarek) to one-year deals at a combined price of $7.8 million and traded Max Stassi and David Fletcher to Atlanta for Evan White and Tyler Thomas in a great big "whatever" swap.

All the same, by spending virtually nothing to this point and also not trading away Trout, the Angels have sort of stagnated their way into becoming one of the teams best-positioned to give Snell a ton of money.

After 20 consecutive years with an Opening Day payroll that ranked top nine in the majors, they are currently in 14th with an estimated payroll of $148.7 million.

Even with the combined $75.7 million they're giving Anthony Rendon and Trout, to climb into their usual spot in the top nine, they would need to increase that payroll by more than $48 million—and that's assuming the team with the current ninth-place payroll (Chicago Cubs at $196.7 million) does nothing else to increase spending, which it probably will.

And, well, the Angels pitching staff could definitely use some help.

With Shohei Ohtani gone, the Halos don't have anything close to an ace and are a distant fourth behind the Astros, Mariners and Rangers as far as AL West pitching prowess goes. But adding Snell could at least get them into the conversation.

Previous Rank: 1

San Francisco was the predicted top landing spot for Snell two months ago, and it wasn't particularly close.

Since then, the Giants have signed Jordan Hicks—a closer that they're hoping to convert to a starter—to a four-year, $44 million contract. They traded Anthony DeSclafani (and Mitch Haniger) to Seattle for Robbie Ray, who will miss the first half of the season while recovering from Tommy John surgery and has an opt-out available in his contract after this season if he thinks he can do better than two years, $50 million on the open market. (He probably can.)

Not exactly slam-dunk additions to the starting rotation, right?

In fact, with Alex Cobb likely to miss the start of the season after undergoing hip surgery in late October, they're currently projected to head into Opening Day with a starting rotation of Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison...Ross Stripling?...Hicks?...and Keaton Winn?

It's not pretty.

And the notion that taking a flier on Hicks means the Giants are no longer pursuing Snell is a colossal slap in the face to the fans who were dangled the possibility of giving a $300 million-plus contract to the likes of Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto over the past 14 months.

Per Spotrac, the Giants are still marginally below the league-average payroll at $152.8 million, which is more than $35 million below their 2023 Opening Day payroll.

I don't care how much they believe in Hicks' ability to thrive as a starter, they can still afford to get Snell and set themselves up to have a great top three of Snell, Webb and Harrison for at least the next five years.

Throw in Snell's excellent career numbers at Oracle Park (22.2 IP, 1.59 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 12.3 K/9), and it looks like even more of a sensational move.