2024 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68

With two more solid, emphatic road wins this past week, the Purdue Boilermakers tightened their grip on the projected No. 1 overall seed for the 2024 men's NCAA tournament. AP No. 1 Connecticut is also firmly on the top seed line with Purdue, and Arizona and North Carolina are our other two projected No. 1 seeds...for now.

At the other end of the spectrum, it's typically around this point in the season—about a third of the way through the conference portion of play with a whole lot of teams in possession of only two or three solid wins—that the bubble feels the most wide open.

Even the No. 6 seeds don't seem to be all that safely in the field, let alone the No. 11 seeds. And it wouldn't even be a stretch to identify 30 teams that could vault into the projected field with one impressive week.

All the same, the bracket is beginning to take shape, and the bubble will shrink just a little bit more with each passing week, either in the form of teams solidifying their bids with quality wins or dropping out of the conversation due to bad/too many losses.

The journey is the fun, though, so join us in figuring out where things stand.

You'll see a lot of NET, RES and QUAL in the forthcoming analysis. NET is the NCAA Evaluation Tool, the backbone of the Quads data and the primary sorting metric the selection committee uses to select and seed the field. RES is the average ranking of the two resume metrics (KPI and SOR) and is more or less a measure of who you beat, regardless of scoring margin. QUAL is the average ranking of the two predictive metrics (BPI and KenPom) and is rooted in scoring margin and adjusted efficiencies. All three play a key role in determining the projected field.

Also of note, all projected automatic bids are based on predictive metrics. Most bracketologists use conference records to make those selections, but our preference is to go with the best team in the eyes of the analytics.

With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.

EAST REGION (Boston)

Brooklyn, NY
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 16 Southern
No. 8 Texas Tech vs. No. 9 Texas A&M

Salt Lake City, UT
No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 13 Gonzaga
No. 5 BYU vs. No. 12 Drake/Oregon

Pittsburgh, PA
No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Vermont
No. 6 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 11 Michigan State

Omaha, NE
No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 15 Colgate
No. 7 New Mexico vs. No. 10 Grand Canyon

MIDWEST REGION (Detroit)

Indianapolis, IN
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Iona/Merrimack
No. 8 South Carolina vs. No. 9 Villanova

Spokane, WA
No. 4 Oklahoma vs. No. 13 UC Irvine
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 12 McNeese State

Omaha, NE
No. 3 Marquette vs. No. 14 Drexel
No. 6 Colorado State vs. No. 11 Syracuse

Charlotte, NC
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Youngstown State
No. 7 Iowa State vs. No. 10 Boise State

SOUTH REGION (Dallas)

Charlotte, NC
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 16 Norfolk State/South Dakota State
No. 8 Seton Hall vs. No. 9 Mississippi State

Spokane, WA
No. 4 Creighton vs. No. 13 Samford
No. 5 Utah State vs. No. 12 James Madison

Memphis, TN
No. 3 Auburn vs. No. 14 Morehead State
No. 6 Utah vs. No. 11 Indiana State

Memphis, TN
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Eastern Washington
No. 7 Clemson vs. No. 10 Ole Miss

WEST REGION (Los Angeles)

Salt Lake City, UT
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Lipscomb
No. 8 Princeton vs. No. 9 St. John's

Brooklyn, NY
No. 4 Baylor vs. No. 13 Akron
No. 5 Duke vs. No. 12 Cincinnati/Northwestern

Pittsburgh, PA
No. 3 Dayton vs. No. 14 Liberty
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 Nebraska

Indianapolis, IN
No. 2 Wisconsin vs. No. 15 High Point
No. 7 Memphis vs. No. 10 Kansas State

1. Purdue Boilermakers (17-2, NET: 2, RES: 1.0, QUAL: 2.0)

2. Connecticut Huskies (17-2, NET: 9, RES: 3.5, QUAL: 8.5)

3. Arizona Wildcats (14-4, NET: 3, RES: 8.0, QUAL: 3.0)

4. North Carolina Tar Heels (15-3, NET: 7, RES: 3.5, QUAL: 9.5)

5. Houston Cougars (16-2, NET: 1, RES: 5.5, QUAL: 1.0)

6. Tennessee Volunteers (14-4, NET: 4, RES: 3.5, QUAL: 4.0)

7. Kansas Jayhawks (14-3, NET: 14, RES: 9.0, QUAL: 18.0)

At this point, Purdue at No. 1 overall and Connecticut at No. 2 overall is non-negotiable. Anyone who tries to tell you otherwise is either fooling themselves or acting in bad faith.

But Nos. 3-7 on the overall seed list is wide open to debate.

Following Saturday's bad loss at West Virginia, Kansas sure looks to be at the bottom of that tier. The Jayhawks already had suspect NET and QUAL metrics, as well as a questionable loss at UCF, which is barely a Quad 1 result right now. They do have some spectacular wins over Connecticut, Tennessee and Kentucky, but everyone in the mix for a No. 1 seed has some great wins, and they now have the worst metrics of the bunch.

Tennessee has entered the chat in a big way following its back-to-back blowout victories over Florida and Alabama. The Volunteers are now top-five in all five metrics and have yet to suffer a loss outside the top half of Quad 1. They've had to work hard to bounce all the way back from suffering three consecutive losses in November, but they've made it.

The only thing holding them back is the sub-.500 record against Quad 1. They're 3-4, while the other six teams here each have at least four wins and a winning record. But a win at Kentucky on Feb. 3 would all but certainly bump Tennessee up to the No. 1 line.

(By the way, I am well aware that Kansas beat Tennessee on a neutral floor. But even with that high-quality, head-to-head victory in the equation, the Volunteers' resume is so strong right now that I don't feel those two teams are close enough for that result to serve as a tiebreaker in the Jayhawks' favor.)

With a 4-1 record against the top half of Quad 1, Arizona remains at the top of this quintet. The Wildcats do have not-great losses to Washington State and Stanford. And had they lost that home game to UCLA Saturday, they probably would've dropped to a No. 3 seed. But those top-tier wins against an aggressive nonconference schedule carry a lot of weight.

Houston vs. North Carolina for the last No. 1 seed is a really tough call, especially after the Cougars just plain annihilated both Texas Tech and UCF this week. But North Carolina's win over Tennessee (even though it was a home game) trumps Houston's best wins over Dayton, Utah and Xavier. UNC also put together a drastically more difficult nonconference schedule, which could be somewhat of a tiebreaker.

All that said, Houston has a big game at BYU on Tuesday night and would immediately leapfrog both North Carolina and Arizona if it gets that win.

Fifth-to-Last In: Syracuse Orange (12-5, NET: 68, RES: 22.5, QUAL: 82.5)—No marquee wins. But no bad losses. Great RES ranking.

Fourth-to-Last In: Drake Bulldogs (15-3, NET: 44, RES: 44.0, QUAL: 50.5)—Perfect 4-0 record vs. Q1/Q2, albeit with three Q3 losses.

Third-to-Last In: Northwestern Wildcats (13-5, NET: 78, RES: 41.5, QUAL: 57.5)—Three great home wins, but a horrific Chicago State loss, too.

Second-to-Last In: Cincinnati Bearcats (13-6, NET: 36, RES: 55.0, QUAL: 31.0)—Colossal win at BYU, but lost four of last five.

Last Team In: Oregon Ducks (13-5, NET: 53, RES: 47.0, QUAL: 57.5)—Getting swept on Colorado/Utah road trip decimated Oregon's at-large case.

****CUT LINE****

First Team Out: TCU Horned Frogs (13-5, NET: 37, NET: 54.5, QUAL: 22.5)—Only two solid wins, neither one coming away from home.

Second Team Out: Georgia Bulldogs (13-5, NET: 81, RES: 36.5, QUAL: 71.0)—South Carolina win was big. Saturday at Florida looms large.

Third Team Out: Nevada Wolf Pack (14-4, NET: 55, RES: 64.0, QUAL: 58.5)—After loss at Wyoming, needs some wins to bounce back.

Fourth Team Out: Colorado Buffaloes (14-5, NET: 33, RES: 49.5, QUAL: 42.5)—Big week vs. Oregons. Bigger week at Washingtons coming up.

Fifth Team Out: Saint Mary's Gaels (13-6, NET: 22, RES: 58.0, QUAL: 25.5)—At 11-1 over last 12, Gaels back from the dead?

4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 4. North Carolina, 18. Duke, 25. Clemson, 44. Syracuse

Also Considered: Wake Forest, Miami, NC State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Florida State

Biggest Change: Duke acquires another highly questionable L

Starters Jeremy Roach and Mark Mitchell both missed Saturday's game against Pittsburgh because of knee injuries. That's a big asterisk. Still, Duke suffered a rare, bad, home loss, bringing some serious scrutiny to a resume that was already a bit lacking.

The neutral-site win over Baylor in late December was great, and the Champions Classic victory over Michigan State is looking better again with the Spartans making a spirited push for a bid. But the Blue Devils haven't done much else, with wins over Pitt (road) and Syracuse (home) the only other remotely noteworthy positive outcomes.

And now they add a home loss to a resume that had previous road losses to Arkansas and Georgia Tech, neither of whom is within a stone's throw of the at-large conversation today.

The metrics (NET: 19, RES: 36.5, QUAL: 11) are still solid, but this resume boils down to two quality wins, two decent wins and three suspect losses.

Duke was a consensus No. 3 seed heading into the weekend, but nothing about that boiled-down resume screams "No. 3 seed" anymore.

That isn't to say the Blue Devils are anywhere close to the bubble. They could probably even lose at Louisville Tuesday night and still be in the field with some room to spare. (Though, we wouldn't advise it.)

But the loss to the Panthers does bump them down two seed lines and makes it just about impossible for Duke to ever make its way back into the mix for a No. 1 seed, given the lack of marquee wins to be found in the ACC this year.

9 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 5. Houston, 7. Kansas, 13. Oklahoma, 14. Baylor, 17. BYU, 26. Iowa State, 29. Texas Tech, 37. Kansas State, 47. Cincinnati

Also Considered: TCU, Texas

Biggest Change: Kansas State moves into a tie for first place

There were a bunch of big developments in the Big 12 in the past seven days, not the least of which was Kansas losing its grip on a No. 1 seed with that loss at West Virginia. Oklahoma had a huge week with a road win over Cincinnati. Baylor suffered a pair of heart-breaking losses. Texas Tech erased a 17-point deficit to beat BYU. Iowa State won at TCU even without star guard Tamin Lipsey.

Never a dull week in this conference.

But there's just something about Kansas State climbing into a tie for first place that stands out, considering that team had been dancing around the projected cut line all season long.

No, conference record doesn't matter in bracketology, and the Wildcats did get three of their four Big 12 wins against the three teams in the league nowhere near the at-large conversation (West Virginia, UCF and Oklahoma State).

Go ask Kansas if games against UCF and West Virginia are freebies, though. And Kansas State did pick up a great home win over Baylor this week, battling back from both a six-point deficit late in the second half and a five-point deficit late in overtime for that resume booster.

Kansas State previously had overtime wins over Villanova and Providence and is 5-0 on the year in games that require an extra five minutes. Those razor-thin margins are why the Wildcats' NET rank (71) lags well behind their RES rank (39.0). But after landing as our second-to-last team in one week ago, the Wildcats are more comfortably in the field as our top No. 10 seed today.

And what a massive week ahead for KSU's quest to prove it belongs in the NCAA tournament. The Wildcats will hit the road to face both Iowa State and Houston, where a 1-1 split would be a net positive. (Lose both, however, and they possibly slide right back into that "Last Five In" range.)

6 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 2. Connecticut, 12. Marquette, 16. Creighton, 32. Seton Hall, 34. Villanova, 35. St. John's

Also Considered: Xavier, Providence

Biggest Change: Xavier making a move?

Not a whole lot of change among the six Big East teams projected to dance. Marquette climbs a bit after the road win over St. John's. Villanova slips a little more after acquiring its seventh loss.

But there is an "also considered" team from the Big East making significant strides.

After home losses to Oakland and Delaware during a 7-8 start to the season, it has been difficult to make any sort of coherent case for Xavier to be in the at-large conversation.

But it has been even more difficult to ignore the Musketeers' resume on a weekly basis.

They stand out like a sore thumb because of the losses—both the quantity and some of the quality—but they are top-50 in every metric except for SOR (72), and they do have a decent stockpile of good wins over Cincinnati, Saint Mary's, Providence and Seton Hall.

Now that they've won three in a row with home victories over Butler and Georgetown this past week to get back to two games above .500, they're starting to look more viable for an at-large spot.

They're not quite there yet, but a win in either game this week (at Creighton Tuesday; at Connecticut Sunday) would be a huge help. And if the X-Men could somehow win both of those road games, heck, they might skyrocket into the field as a No. 6 or No. 7 seed.

At this point, the sheer volume of losses is their biggest problem. Splitting a road trip against a pair of title contenders would be huge, but would also leave the Musketeers at 11-9 overall with seven of their final 11 games coming against teams currently projected to dance—plus the Big East tournament.

But this transfer-heavy bunch sure seems to be figuring things out in a hurry, scoring at least 85 points in each of their last three wins.

6 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Purdue, 8. Wisconsin, 15. Illinois, 42. Nebraska, 43. Michigan State, 46. Northwestern

Also Considered: Ohio State, Iowa

Biggest Change: Nebraska tops Northwestern in a B1G bubble battle

There are three tiers in this year's Big Ten: three teams definitely in, five teams hovering around the bubble and six teams with little to no hope for a bid. And any time two of the teams in that middle tier square off with each other, it's a pretty big game.

We got one of those this past Saturday with Nebraska scoring a home win over Northwestern, even without starting power forward Juwan Gary, who scored in double figures in each of the Cornhuskers' key wins over Michigan State, Kansas State and Purdue.

Unfortunately for Nebraska, it needed that win to salvage what otherwise would have been a rough week, as it blew a 12-point second-half lead in a road loss to Rutgers—one of the six teams in that "no hope" tier.

That wasn't a terrible outcome, though. Rutgers has yet to suffer a bad loss and is always tough to beat in Piscataway. But had Nebraska lost that game and the home game against Northwestern, it would have dropped down to around 10th team out.

As is, Nebraska picked up a solid win and slid a few spots ahead of Northwestern, which fell to 0-4 away from home against top 100 competition, plus the horrific home loss to Chicago State.

The Wildcats have a massive three-game stretch coming up against Illinois (home), Ohio State (home) and Purdue (road). Got to get at least one of those wins, and preferably two, because aside from the game at Michigan State on March 6, Northwestern's schedule is way more "land mine" than "opportunity" from Feb. 1 onward.

5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 19. Utah State, 20. San Diego State, 21. Colorado State, 27. New Mexico, 38. Boise State

Also Considered: Nevada

Biggest Change: Nevada's resume takes a high-altitude hit

Playing road games in Laramie, Wyoming, is a nightmare. Not only is it logistically difficult to get to even in good weather, but at more than 7,000 feet above sea level, it's just not an enjoyable physical experience.

And after 14 consecutive games holding its opponent to 75 points or fewer, Nevada was left chasing its tail on defense against the Cowboys on Saturday night, suffering a 98-93 loss to what was the 205th-ranked team in the NET.

The Wolf Pack also lost earlier in the week at San Diego State, and suffered a home loss to Boise State two Fridays ago, causing this resume to get questionable in a hurry.

The win over TCU in the Diamond Head Classic still looks good, but the Horned Frogs are perilously perched on the bubble in their own right after losses this week to Cincinnati and Iowa State. And while the early road win over Washington is a borderline Quad 1 result, beating the now eight-loss Huskies isn't doing much to move the needle.

The good news for Nevada? Opportunity is knocking in a big way. Between now and Valentine's Day, they'll get two games against New Mexico, home games against Colorado State and San Diego State and a road game against Utah State. Win at least two of those five games and they'll probably be in better shape than they are in today.

But already at 0-2 against the MWC's other five at-large candidates, that bad loss to Wyoming was a major blow. Our top No. 9 seed one week ago, Nevada slips onto the wrong side of the bubble.

3 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 3. Arizona, 22. Utah, 48. Oregon

Also Considered: Colorado

Biggest Change: List of viable candidates for a bid is dwindling

With sub-.500 records, Cal, UCLA and USC are effectively already dead from an at-large perspective. At 9-9, Oregon State isn't in any better shape. And while 10-8 Stanford does have home wins over both Arizona and Utah, it would take one heck of a run through the next two months for the Cardinal to make its way into the conversation.

That leaves seven other teams in the Pac-12, and three of them that were already very much on the wrong side of the bubble did themselves no favors this past week.

Arizona State started 4-0 in Pac-12 play to somewhat sneak into the at-large mix, but the Sun Devils blew a 15-point second-half lead in a home loss to UCLA on Wednesday and will need to put in some serious work on the road over the next month against Oregon, Colorado, Utah and Arizona to have any shot at a bid.

Less than a week removed from its own bad loss to UCLA, Washington added another misstep late Saturday night at Stanford. The Huskies now have eight losses, and their early wins over Gonzaga and Xavier have not held up particularly well. If they don't sweep Colorado and Utah at home this week, they might be toast.

And maybe the worst loss of the bunch, Washington State blew a late second-half lead en route to an overtime loss to Cal. The Cougars had gotten onto the radar a week ago with their upset of Arizona, but that was a dagger of a loss. They, too, might need to sweep Colorado and Utah this week, as there simply won't be many opportunities to improve their resume after that.

At this point, it feels like four is the absolute maximum number of bids the Pac-12 could get, and I would have to abstain from betting if you gave me an over/under of 2.5.

8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 6. Tennessee, 10. Auburn, 11. Kentucky, 23. Alabama, 31. South Carolina, 33. Texas A&M, 36. Mississippi State, 39. Ole Miss

Also Considered: Georgia, Florida

Biggest Change: Ole Miss drops a pair and takes a tumble

Ole Miss was one of the last teams to drop from the ranks of the undefeated, getting out to a 13-0 start to the year.

But it was a hollow 13-0 record, consisting of a few decent wins over Memphis (home), UCF (road) and NC State (home) and very little else.

Almost all of those wins were close calls, too, so the predictive metrics weren't buying what the Rebels were selling. In fact, they didn't even gain any ground on KenPom during that 13-0 start, entering their SEC opener against Tennessee rated in the exact same middling spot (No. 82) as they were to open the season.

Much like South Carolina back in 2015-16, that sensational start was liable to go up in smoke if they didn't prove themselves in SEC play.

And on that front, it was a rough week for the Rebels, who took a bad loss at LSU and a blowout loss at Auburn.

Chris Beard's usual calling card of stingy defense? Nowhere to be found thus far in SEC play, with opponents averaging 80.4 points per game. And they haven't even faced the extremely good offenses of Alabama or Kentucky yet.

Ole Miss is still in decent shape for a bid, but it can say goodbye to the No. 6 seed projection from one week ago. The Rebels are much closer to the bubble now, and a home win over Arkansas on Wednesday is all but imperative.

27 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 9. Dayton, 24. Florida Atlantic, 28. Memphis, 30. Princeton, 40. Grand Canyon, 41. Indiana State, 45. Drake, 49. James Madison, 50. McNeese State, 51. Gonzaga, 52. Samford, 53. Akron, 54. UC Irvine, 55. Vermont, 56. Drexel, 57. Liberty, 58. Morehead State, 59. Eastern Washington, 60. High Point, 61. Youngstown State, 62. Colgate, 63. Lipscomb, 64. Southern, 65. South Dakota State, 66. Norfolk State, 67. Iona, 68. Merrimack

Also Considered: Saint Mary's, SMU

Biggest Change: Memphis comes crashing back to earth and Grand Canyon's resume takes on water

Heading into this past Thursday, Memphis' tournament resume was a migraine-inducing conundrum.

The resume metrics? Absolutely adored the Tigers. Painted them as a possible No. 2 seed.

The predictive metrics? Nowhere near as enamored with Memphis and suggested they should be on the bubble.

But the real conundrum? Memphis had neither suffered anything close to a bad loss, nor even played a game against the top half of Quad 1, let alone defeated a marquee opponent.

Basically, the resume consisted of a lot of Quad 2 wins by narrow margins and was one bad loss away from slipping from pristine to just kind of pretty good.

Well, the Tigers suffered that bad loss at home against South Florida, blowing a 20-point second-half lead and probably any hope of getting a No. 1 or even a No. 2 seed.

And then they suffered another bad loss less than 72 hours later, though that road loss to Tulane was nowhere near as bad as the home loss to USF.

They are still in good shape for a bid, though. You simply don't go from a possible No. 2 seed straight to the bubble because of two losses. But each of those losses did cost them multiple seed lines. They've gone from arguably the No. 7 overall seed to the bottom of the No. 7 seed line.

One other noteworthy loss here was Grand Canyon losing at Seattle late Saturday night.

Even before that game, Seattle was the second-best team in the WAC in most of the metrics. If the 'Lopes had to lose a league game, that was the one. But for a team with 12 of its 16 D1 wins coming against Q4, there's not much margin for error. GCU slides from our top No. 8 seed to our bottom No. 10 seed and is likely one more regular-season loss away from "auto bid or bust" territory.