Way-Too-Early Predictions for the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline

Way-Too-Early Predictions for the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline
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1Lucas Giolito Will Rebound and Become a Top Rental Target
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2The Padres Will Fail to Launch and Cash in Ha-Seong Kim
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3The Mets Won't Be Good Enough to Justify Keeping Pete Alonso
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4The Marlins Won't Be Good Enough to Justify Keeping Luis Arraez
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5The Angels Will Be Terrible, but Mike Trout Will Stay Put
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6The Guardians Will Be Too Good to Trade Shane Bieber
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7Yes, the White Sox Will Trade Dylan Cease
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8The White Sox Will Also Trade Eloy Jiménez
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9The Brewers Won't Be Good Enough to Keep Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames
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10Bonus Burnes/Adames Prediction: They'll Move in the Same Trade!
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Way-Too-Early Predictions for the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline

Zachary D. Rymer
Jan 23, 2024

Way-Too-Early Predictions for the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline

Is there any scenario in which Corbin Burnes stays in Milwaukee?
Is there any scenario in which Corbin Burnes stays in Milwaukee?

Since it won't come until July 30, it's probably too early to be looking ahead to the trade deadline for the 2024 MLB season.

OK fine, it's definitely too early. But since right now is apparently both the dead of winter and the dead of MLB's offseason, it's times like these when one's imagination is prone to wandering.

So, I've made 10 predictions for this year's trade deadline. At the risk of coming off all Negative Nelly, some concern trades that won't happen. But fear not! Most concern trades that will happen.

This wasn't about making specific proposals, or even playing matchmaker between prospective buyers and sellers. It was more about digging into the "why" of each potential outcome. As in, what are the forces that could contribute to players staying put or packing up and leaving?

Alright, enough dawdling. Let's get to it.

Lucas Giolito Will Rebound and Become a Top Rental Target

Lucas Giolito
Lucas Giolito

That the Boston Red Sox are not having a good winter is what we in the industry call an understatement. Yet the Lucas Giolito signing, at least, could prove to be $18 million well spent.

Though the right-hander's deal is technically a two-year, $38.5 million agreement, the second year is contingent on him exercising a player option for 2025. And that, in turn, is likely contingent on whether he rebuilds value this year after back-to-back difficult seasons.

It's very much a bet worth taking. Giolito, 29, is spending this winter prioritizing getting his mechanics back where he wants them, which is presumably where they were as he was earning Cy Young Award votes in 2019, 2020 and 2021. He got to that point with help from Driveline Baseball, whose founder was just hired by the Red Sox as a special adviser.

If Giolito does rediscover his prime form—wherein he posted a 3.47 ERA and whiffed 11.1 batters per nine innings—what could keep him in Boston is if the Red Sox arise as contenders again after finishing in last place for the third time in four seasons last year.

But with initial projections from FanGraphs once again tabbing the Red Sox as the worst of the worst in the American League East, let's call this "doubtful." And if they do start backsliding toward the cellar once again, cashing in a rejuvenated Giolito will be an easy call.

The Padres Will Fail to Launch and Cash in Ha-Seong Kim

Ha-Seong Kim
Ha-Seong Kim

Elsewhere on the topic of teams mired in lousy offseasons, it's fair to say that the San Diego Padres will not be going into 2024 as World Series favorites like they did in 2023.

The Friars have had a good offseason only if you're assessing it by how much payroll they've cut. They're currently projected to spend $99 million less in 2024 than they did throughout all of last season. You could fit their entire 2019 payroll in that gap.

Meanwhile, Manny Machado is coming off elbow surgery and neither Yu Darvish (elbow) nor Joe Musgrove (shoulder) was healthy at the end of last season. So if anything, the Padres being projected as the third-best team in the National League West could be overstating their promise.

In the event that things fall apart, the Padres likely won't have a ton to offer at the trade deadline. But unless they can sign him to an extension beforehand, there should be a market for Ha-Seong Kim while he still has a few months to go before free agency.

Kim is primarily known for his Gold Glove-winning defense, but he's been strong enough offensively over the last two seasons to post consecutive 5-rWAR seasons. Oh, and that Gold Glove-winning defense? It applies at both second base and shortstop, so whatever market develops for him should be strong indeed.

The Mets Won't Be Good Enough to Justify Keeping Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso

Contrary to the Red Sox and Padres, it doesn't take a grand imaginative leap to envision the New York Mets in the race to make the 2024 playoffs.

They may not have the gargantuan payroll that they did in 2023, but they're to be commended for using the offseason to fill out a Kodai Senga-led rotation and a bullpen that will be getting Edwin Díaz back from last year's fluke ACL tear. And the lineup? It's solid.

And yet, to see the Mets as anything better than the third-best team in the NL East requires either overrating them, which is a bad idea, or underrating Atlanta or the Philadelphia Phillies, which is a worse idea. And since their rotation additions come with as much downside as upside, there's a very real scenario in which the Mets don't even contend for a wild-card spot.

If so, it may take an extension to keep them from shopping Pete Alonso, who's due for free agency after 2024. Such a thing is technically possible but reportedly not in the works and seemingly unlikely to happen. Alonso is, after all, represented by the infamously extension-averse Scott Boras.

Though the 29-year-old first baseman would only be a rental, he would figure to draw a crowd anyway. I'm basing this on the assumption that MLB teams still dig home runs, and that they'd therefore be attracted to a guy who boasts a league-high 192 since 2019.

The Marlins Won't Be Good Enough to Justify Keeping Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez
Luis Arraez

Sticking in the National League East, we need to talk about that report on Luis Arraez.

This is the one from Jon Heyman of the New York Post on Jan. 11, which said that the Miami Marlins are "willing to listen on almost everyone." That may include Arraez, who's won back-to-back NL batting titles and even flirted with hitting .400 for a good chunk of 2023.

This notion seems partly steered by the competition, with one rival executive positing that the Marlins have "zero chance" of signing Arraez beyond his date with free agency after 2025. But that's two years away, so there's no rush.

Yet if not right away, one can imagine the Marlins shopping the 26-year-old this summer. Trading Arraez would be a means of boosting a farm system that B/R's Joel Reuter recently ranked at No. 29 in MLB. It would also mean dodging another raise on the $10.8 million he's projected to make in 2024 after he beat the Marlins in arbitration last year.

In theory, all it would take is the Marlins falling far enough out of the race to have no choice but to consider all options. Knowing that they dramatically overachieved in 2023 and that they don't project well for this season, such a tumble is very much in the cards.

The Angels Will Be Terrible, but Mike Trout Will Stay Put

Mike Trout
Mike Trout

Speaking of teams that don't project well for 2024, it's doubtful that anyone has higher hopes for the Los Angeles Angels than the numbers do.

They lost 89 games in 2023 even with Shohei Ohtani, after all, and he's gone. They now project to occupy the same spot this season that they did last season: ahead of only the Oakland Athletics in the AL West.

So, go ahead. It's OK to at least think about the possibility of the Angels trading Mike Trout. Because if it does become incontrovertibly clear that they must rebuild, hanging on to the three-time AL MVP would be both pointless and vaguely cruel. The poor guy deserves a chance to win, no?

Yet even if Trout himself wanted a trade—which he seems not to—his $37.1 million annual salaries through 2030 would pose a problem. Trades of players on huge contracts are rare in general, but especially so during the middle of a season.

The Angels themselves, meanwhile, don't sound remotely amenable to trading Trout. And to this end, let's not underestimate owner Arte Moreno's commitment to stubbornness. If the idea of trading Ohtani even as his free agency creeped ever closer made Moreno angry, good luck convincing him to trade Trout with seven full seasons still left on his deal.

The Guardians Will Be Too Good to Trade Shane Bieber

Shane Bieber
Shane Bieber

Let's shift to players who are hypothetically on the trading block in the here and now, starting with Cleveland Guardians ace Shane Bieber.

Ah, but how available is the 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner, really? Not very, according to Heyman, which partly has to do with Cleveland's outlook for 2024: "The Guardians have a chance to win the AL Central, so it was always going to be difficult to thread that needle."

Such an outcome might not seem likely after what happened in 2023, wherein Bieber, who's due for free agency after 2024, and Triston McKenzie were absent for much of a season that ended with 86 losses. And since then, the Guardians have done next to nothing to improve.

Yet even if that shows in some areas—particularly in the slugging department—the Guardians project as the second-best team in the AL Central behind a Minnesota Twins squad that's somehow had an even worse winter. As such, contention is indeed in play.

The rotation which the 28-year-old Bieber is part of is perhaps the biggest reason to believe the Guardians have a playoff run in them. If they get the 2022 versions of him and McKenzie (2.92 ERA, 8.9 K/9) plus the 2023 versions of Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams (3.35 ERA, 8.8 K/9), we're talking potentially the best rotation in the American League.

Yes, the White Sox Will Trade Dylan Cease

Dylan Cease
Dylan Cease

Though Bieber has been a main character on this winter's trade market, the leading role has been played elsewhere in the AL Central by Dylan Cease.

Yet he, too, is apparently not so available these days. Multiple recent reports have downplayed the prospect of the Chicago White Sox moving Cease, with Heyman writing the "growing belief" is that the ace right-hander will remain on the South Side until the deadline.

In theory, even that might not mark the end of Cease's time in Chicago. He's under club control after 2025, so the White Sox aren't quite running out of chances to trade him. And who knows? Maybe they'll even contend this year.

But, yeah, the latter notion is a reach. The White Sox lost 101 games last year and, even despite some nifty additions this winter, project even worse for 2024 than the A's and Kansas City Royals, both fellow 100-game losers from last season.

Cease himself, meanwhile, is poised to resuscitate his value after posting a 4.58 ERA in 2023. He didn't lose his ability to generate awkward swings last year, and he may be about to add a splitter to go with his renowned slider. A return to his '22 form, which led him to a 2.20 ERA and 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings, may well happen.

The White Sox Will Also Trade Eloy Jiménez

Eloy Jiménez
Eloy Jiménez

As to other White Sox trade chips, there was a time when Eloy Jiménez seemed to have one foot out the door. At least to the extent that other teams were interested, anyway.

But now? Not so much, according to Bruce Levine of 670 The Score:

This isn't surprising, and it would be even less so if we find out the White Sox have been driving a hard bargain on Jiménez. He's played in only 53 percent of the team's games over the last three seasons and is coming off posting a modest .758 OPS last season.

Yet it's entirely possible that the 27-year-old will rebound in 2024. His longest absence in 2023 was due to an appendectomy, which isn't going to happen again. Plus, you have to be high on any guy who's decreasing his strikeout rate while keeping his average exit velocity above 90 mph.

A healthy Jiménez would stand to be one of the top sluggers on the summer market if the White Sox make him available. And unless they were planning on picking up a $16.5 million option for 2025, there'd be additional sense in them effectively renting him out.

The Brewers Won't Be Good Enough to Keep Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames

Corbin Burnes
Corbin Burnes

Getting back to Cy Young Award winners who once seemed as good as gone this winter, Corbin Burnes would now seem about as likely to stay put as Bieber.

As noted by ESPN's Jeff Passan, the Milwaukee Brewers are no less interested in contending in the NL Central than the Guardians are in the AL Central. If they're going to keep Burnes for such purposes, then they're all but certain to also keep shortstop Willy Adames, who's likewise due for free agency after 2024.

The outlook here is far from hopeless. The Brewers did win the NL Central title last season, after all, and they project as the third-best team in the division for 2024 after the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. In the abstract, neither club looks like an insurmountable hurdle in the division race.

It's nonetheless hard to make the case that the Brewers have improved their roster this winter, which is to say nothing of what they've lost in the manager's chair. Without Craig Counsell calling the shots, they may find it hard to keep outpacing their expected records.

Plus, the projections likely underrate a Cincinnati Reds team that won 82 games in 2023 and has since gotten deeper through a $109.2 million splash in free agency. If the Brewers find themselves looking up at them and the Cardinals and Cubs come July, there would be little point in holding Burnes and Adames.

Bonus Burnes/Adames Prediction: They'll Move in the Same Trade!

Willy Adames
Willy Adames

If the Brewers do deal Burnes and Adames this summer, is it more likely to be in separate trades or in the same one together?

Probably in separate trades, if a December report from Jon Morosi of MLB.com is to be believed. If so, that could be due to practicality as much as anything else. Not every team in the market to rent an ace is also in the market to rent a shortstop, and vice versa.

Yet I'm going to predict that, in the style of Rich Hill and Josh Reddick, Burnes and Adames will ultimately be moved in the same trade, if for no other reason than it would be a lot of fun. And also because it's at least plausible, if not necessarily practical.

Though not many teams figure to be in the hunt for both an ace and a shortstop this summer, the exact figure may not be zero. Even this winter, MLB.com's Mark Feinsand has pondered a potential Burnes-Adames blockbuster for the Los Angeles Dodgers. The San Francisco Giants and New York Yankees are other hypothetical possibilities for such a deal.

The question could be whether the Brewers have more to gain from individual teams that are desperate for Burnes or Adames or one team that's desperate for both of them. If the needle points to the latter, it could be a package deal.


Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

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