Sleeper Rankings for the 2024 Men's NCAA Tournament

Ten months removed from a 2023 Final Four consisting of a No. 4 seed, two No. 5 seeds and a No. 9 seed, it is none too early to start trying to figure out which Sleepers to watch out for in the 2024 men's NCAA tournament.

Before we dive in, let's note that while all Cinderellas are Sleepers, not all Sleepers are Cinderellas. For example, the 2016 Syracuse team that made the Final Four as a No. 10 seed and the 2021 UCLA team that made the Final Four as a No. 11 seed were Sleepers, but they most certainly were not Cinderellas.

There will be a few Cinderellas included in this discussion, but all Sleepers are welcome, which is any team that reasonably could make a multiple-weekend run in the NCAA tournament despite being currently projected for a No. 7 seed or worse in the Bracket Matrix.

Obviously, matchups are everything when it comes to the NCAA tournament, and we have no clue what sort of draw any of these teams will get—if they make the tournament at all. But teams are ranked in ascending order of how confident we are in saying they will win at least one game, regardless of the hand they are dealt by the selection committee.

Current Projected Seed: No. 12

All the way back in our preseason bracket projection, Grand Canyon was the pick to become this year's Cinderella team.

And at the time, we had no clue how good Tyon Grant-Foster would be.

How could we, though? The former JUCO transfer barely played at Kansas in 2020-21, played one half of one game at DePaul in 2021-22 before a life-threatening situation kept him from playing the rest of that season and all of 2022-23. But he has been GCU's brightest star, averaging 19.0 points, 5.6 rebounds and better than one assist, steal and block per game.

More predictably, returnees Ray Harrison and Gabe McGlothan have also been excellent, combining for close to 30 points and 11 rebounds per game after leading the 'Lopes to a No. 14 seed in last year's dance.

A scary, additional note on Grand Canyon is that Jovan Blacksher Jr. is not yet even remotely back to what he once was. He missed most of last season and the first five weeks of the current campaign while recovering from a torn ACL and isn't making any real impact yet. But two years ago, he averaged 15.8 points and 4.0 assists per game. If he can ramp back up over the next six weeks, a dangerous team will become even more so.

The 'Lopes are no joke, undeniably better than they already had been in recent years. And as we noted back in November, they put up good fights in their last two trips to the dance, but just couldn't get past Luka Garza or Drew Timme—a tall order for any team from a one-bid league. If GCU gets a seed in the Nos. 11-13 range, though, it could knock off any team currently in the mix for the Nos. 3-6 seed lines.

Current Projected Seed: No. 11

Indiana State is the first of two mid-majors on this list who can score like there's no tomorrow, but who we wouldn't dream of trusting to get a defensive stop with its season on the line.

In the Sycamores' three losses—all on the road against quality competition in Alabama, Michigan State and Drake—they allowed 92.7 points.

The Crimson Tide did shoot the lights out, going 13-for-23 from distance en route to that 102-point performance. But ISU simply could not stop Michigan State down the stretch of that game and only forced three turnovers in the loss at Drake, with the Bulldogs scoring a combined 29 points on 12 consecutive possessions in the second half.

But nobody shoots the rock better than Indiana State.

The Sycamores have a 60.5 effective field-goal percentage against D-I opponents, which is the best in the nation by a mile. And that doesn't even account for the fact that they shoot nearly 80 percent from the free-throw line. eFG% only counts ISU's 39.9 three-point percentage and 61.1 two-point percentage—with the Sycamores taking slightly more than half of their shots from beyond the arc.

Factor in the free throws, and Indiana State is averaging 85.5 points and taking 57.1 field-goal attempts per game. That's 1.50 points per FGA, which is just Looney Tunes efficiency.

To put that ratio in context, Gonzaga had a similar eFG% two years ago (61.0), and it averaged 87.2 points and 62.6 FGA, for a ratio of 1.39. That Gonzaga team had maybe the most efficient offense of the KenPom era, and Indiana State is averaging nearly 10 percent more points per shot.

The poor defense and the lack of top-notch victories makes it difficult to put any faith in the Sycamores, but don't be surprised if they simply shoot their way to a few wins.

Current Projected Seed: No. 10

I'll be honest with you: At this point in my career, even I don't believe in Saint Mary's as a legitimate threat to make a deep run anymore. I've been promoting the Gaels as a sleeper team on a darn-near annual basis for the past decade, but they haven't made it to the Sweet 16 since 2010.

You can only get burned by the same team so many times before you just give up hope.

Sure, last year was a brutal draw, running into eventual national champion Connecticut in the second round and losing a key player (Alex Ducas) to a back injury just before halftime in what was a tight game.

However, it was the same Saint Mary's outcome as always: Bounced before the second weekend.

Analytically speaking, the Gaels are a strong team. The defense is great. The rebounding is superb. Their snail-like tempo is impossible to speed up. And they've been almost unbeatable for the past two months, winning 15 of their past 16 games.

Business as usual for this program. And if you showed me this same resume with Saint Joseph's, Saint Bonaventure or Saint John's at the top instead of Saint Mary's, I'd be in for that team getting at least one tournament win, probably several.

It's purely an "I won't get fooled again" bracket-picking bias, similar to what a lot of people are feeling these days with Purdue and with Rick Barnes.

For what it's worth, though, I also gave up hope on Virginia ever making the Final Four right after the UMBC loss—which didn't work out so well for my 2019 bracket.

Current Projected Seed: No. 7

Florida Atlantic isn't exactly sneaking up on anyone next month after making it to the Final Four last season.

Then again, who had No. 8 seed Butler making it back to the national championship for a second successive year in 2011?

The equal parts terrifying and tantalizing element of picking FAU to win multiple tournament games is that the Owls are addicted to playing to the level of their competition.

Against the likes of Arizona, Illinois, Texas A&M, Butler and Virginia Tech, they looked great.

But against Bryant, Charlotte, Florida Gulf Coast, North Texas, Tulane and UTSA, they were a disaster.

It all proves one simple point about this team: FAU can score on anyone, and anyone can score on FAU.

No one was all that concerned about FAU's defense when the average score of the Arizona, Illinois, Texas A&M and Butler games was 93-92. Those were just high-level, extremely enjoyable games against quality foes, reinforcing the preseason No. 10 ranking in the AP poll.

85-84 against Tulane, though?

112-103 against UTSA?

Yikes.

But in addition to this being basically the same roster that went to the Final Four last year, it bears mentioning that Miami rode the same "elite offense, highly questionable defense" script to the 2023 Final Four, as well. Those types of teams had historically flamed out early in the dance, but now we've got some proof it can work, provided that elite offense is firing on all cylinders.

Current Projected Seed: No. 11

We've had a whole lot of nothing good to say about the Pac-12 in its final season of existence. USC and UCLA have been disasters. More than half of the league has already been effectively eliminated from the at-large conversation. And it's still plausible it will be a one-bid league, if Utah limps to the finish line while Colorado, Oregon and Washington State fail to do much of anything to improve their resumes.

But if Colorado can get over the hump and into the dance, that could be a dangerous squad.

Historically speaking, the Buffaloes are nothing to worry about. This is a program that has not won multiple games in an NCAA tournament since reaching the Final Four in 1955. And Tad Boyle has a 2-5 career record in the dance.

However, that has nothing to do with the current roster, where the entire starting five averages at least 10 points per game, where KJ Simpson is arguably one of the 20 most valuable players in the country, where Cody Williams is well on his way to a lottery pick and where Tristan Da Silva is thriving as a do-it-all big man for the second consecutive year.

The reason Colorado is on the bubble is that it doesn't have a single win against a definite tournament team and did suffer some unsavory losses to Arizona State and California. Yet, the Buffaloes have put forth some impressive performances, averaging better than 80 points per game.

Big one coming up this Saturday at home against Arizona. Colorado got annihilated by the Wildcats in Tucson, but they didn't have Williams or Da Silva for that one and got run out of the McKale Center almost immediately. Could be a much different story in Boulder.

Current Projected Seed: Not in the Field

Some bracketologists have Gonzaga projected as the recipient of the WCC's auto bid. Others have them receiving an at-large bid with Saint Mary's winning the conference tournament. But even with both of those avenues to the dance on the table, the Zags fall well short of cracking the projected field.

If they do get in, though, don't we kind of have to assume they could make a run?

This is Gonzaga we're talking about. A program that has made it at least to the Sweet 16 four times as a double-digit seed, as well as a program that has won multiple games in eight consecutive NCAA tournaments.

The Zags get criticized for having not yet won a national championship, but they have been an ever-present factor in our bracket-picking world for the past quarter-century.

And aside from the current dearth of marquee wins, there's no good reason to assume that this year's squad couldn't also at least reach a regional semifinal.

No, Drew Timme and his 'stache aren't walking through that door. But Mark Few does have some serious talent on that roster.

Returnees Anton Watson and Nolan Hickman have taken huge steps forward. Transfers Graham Ike (Wyoming) and Ryan Nembhard (Creighton) have been major additions. As have freshman Braden Huff and Dusty Stromer—the former a massive, efficient contributor off the bench; the latter a shining example of what a glue guy can do for you.

It's been a hot minute since Gonzaga had to start its tournament run as anything other than a top-four seed, but it might be like riding a bicycle.

Current Projected Seed: No. 9

Bit of a no-brainer nomination here, right?

Watch out for Tom Izzo's team in March?

Like we haven't heard that for two decades straight?

That said, it's shaping up to be the fourth consecutive March in which Izzo gets a No. 7 seed or worse, as this year's Spartans fell flat on their collective face for the first five weeks of the season.

Since those early losses to James Madison, Duke, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nebraska, though, they've gone 10-3, including a couple of solid victories over Baylor and Indiana State.

And unlike most of the past decade when turnover margin was a very real concern for the Spartans, they have turned that into a strength for a change, averaging better than seven steals per game while ranking among the nation's leaders in avoiding giveaways at just 10 turnovers per contest.

In fact, steals have become a good indicator of whether Michigan State is going to win the game. It has gone 11-1 (the lone loss coming in the season opener against JMU) when getting at least seven steals and is 3-7 when falling short of that mark.

The gigantic question mark with MSU is the frontcourt.

Malik Hall is a quality power forward, but will the Spartans get anything out of their center tandem of Mady Sissoko and Carson Cooper on any given night? And will Izzo even remember to put talented freshman Xavier Booker in the game?

But in the tournament, guard play rules the day. And with the quartet of Tyson Walker, A.J. Hoggard, Jaden Akins and Tre Holloman leading the way, the Spartans could rule quite a few days in March.

Current Projected Seed: No. 8

New Mexico has been my sleeper pick to reach the Final Four since a few weeks into the season.

What type of draw they get in the bracket will determine whether I actually have the guts to make that pick. For example, if they're the No. 8 or No. 9 seed matched up with Connecticut in the first round, I won't even be picking the Lobos to the Sweet 16.

But there's no question they have the goods to make a deep run.

We already knew about Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. from last season, when they averaged a combined 36 points per game. We also knew about Nelly Junior Joseph, the big man who transferred from Rick Pitino at Iona to Richard Pitino at New Mexico. That trio alone made the Lobos an intriguing preseason candidate to reach the dance.

What we didn't know three months ago was that Donovan Dent would become one of the biggest breakout stars in the country, nearly tripling his scoring average while becoming UNM's primary ball-handler. Or that forward JT Toppin would emerge as arguably one of the 10 best freshmen in the nation. Or that fellow freshman Tru Washington would be so valuable as a sixth man, particularly with his ball-hawking skills on defense.

Throw in Jemarl Baker—a two-time former Wildcat with both Kentucky and Arizona who is now a sixth-year senior shooting 43 percent from deep—and Mustapha Amzil—a transfer from Dayton who is scoring in double figures off the bench more often than not over the past two months—and New Mexico is just loaded with dudes who can ball.

The lack of a truly marquee win might be a little concerning.

But guess what?

Florida Atlantic didn't have a great win until the NCAA tournament last year, either.

You've been warned. Look out for the Lobos.