2024 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68

In the aftermath of a massive weekend of men's college hoops that featured not one, not two, not three, but four battles between AP Top 10 teams, an updated projection for the 2024 NCAA tournament is a must.

Despite the incredible slate of games, no changes at the tippy top of the field. Purdue, Connecticut and Houston had the clear top three resumes one week ago, and that remains the case today.

The fourth No. 1 seed, however, is much more open to debate. And it only gets more fluid from there as we work our way down the seed list to the bubble.

You'll see a lot of NET, RES and QUAL in the forthcoming analysis. NET is the NCAA Evaluation Tool, the backbone of the Quads data and the primary sorting metric the selection committee uses to select and seed the field. RES is the average ranking of the two resume metrics (KPI and SOR) and is more or less a measure of who you beat, regardless of scoring margin. QUAL is the average ranking of the two predictive metrics (BPI and KenPom) and is rooted in scoring margin and adjusted efficiencies. All three play a key role in determining the projected field.

Also of note, after more than a decade of always using predictive metrics to project each conference's automatic bid, we're going the more conventional "first place in the standings" route, at least for one week. There are a bunch of cases right now where KenPom, NET and BPI suggest that a team two or more games back is actually the best in the league and, well, we're tired of rewarding teams that simply aren't winning enough.

However, in cases where there is a tie atop the standings, we're going with the most at-large-worthy of those tied teams, even if it isn't necessarily the team that would get the No. 1 seed today. (Of particular note, Dayton is our projected A-10 champ, despite its H2H loss to Richmond. We also have Florida Atlantic as the projected AAC champ, even though Charlotte would be the No. 1 seed in that tournament at this moment.)

With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.

EAST REGION (BOSTON)

Brooklyn, NY
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 16 Southern
No. 8 TCU vs. No. 9 Texas A&M

Spokane, WA
No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 13 Samford
No. 5 Auburn vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon

Pittsburgh, PA
No. 3 Dayton vs. No. 14 Morehead State
No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 11 Virginia/Cincinnati

Omaha, NE
No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 15 Colgate
No. 7 Boise State vs. No. 10 Florida

MIDWEST REGION (DETROIT)

Indianapolis, IN
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Merrimack/North Dakota
No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Texas

Spokane, WA
No. 4 Iowa State vs. No. 13 Akron
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 12 McNeese State

Salt Lake City, UT
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 UC Irvine
No. 6 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 11 Washington State

Charlotte, NC
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Oakland
No. 7 Colorado State vs. No. 10 Butler

SOUTH REGION (DALLAS)

Memphis, TN
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Eastern Washington
No. 8 Saint Mary's vs. No. 9 Nebraska

Brooklyn, NY
No. 4 Duke vs. No. 13 Vermont
No. 5 South Carolina vs. No. 12 St. John's/Mississippi State

Omaha, NE
No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 14 Louisiana Tech
No. 6 Utah State vs. No. 11 Seton Hall

Indianapolis, IN
No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 15 Quinnipiac
No. 7 Utah vs. No. 10 Ole Miss

WEST REGION (LOS ANGELES)

Charlotte, NC
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 16 Eastern Kentucky/Norfolk State
No. 8 New Mexico vs. No. 9 Michigan State

Pittsburgh, PA
No. 4 Creighton vs. No. 13 Cornell
No. 5 BYU vs. No. 12 Appalachian State

Memphis, TN
No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 14 High Point
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 11 Northwestern

Salt Lake City, UT
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Drexel
No. 7 Texas Tech vs. No. 10 Indiana State

1. Purdue Boilermakers (20-2, NET: 2, RES: 1, QUAL: 2)

2. Connecticut Huskies (20-2, NET: 3, RES: 3.5, QUAL: 4)

3. Houston Cougars (19-3, NET: 1, RES: 3.5, QUAL: 1)

4. North Carolina Tar Heels (18-4, NET: 9, RES: 4, QUAL: 8.5)

5. Tennessee Volunteers (16-5, NET: 6, RES: 4, QUAL: 6.5)

6. Arizona Wildcats (17-5, NET: 4, RES: 8.5, QUAL: 3.5)

7. Marquette Golden Eagles (17-5, NET: 12, RES: 10.0, QUAL: 11.0)

8. Kansas Jayhawks (17-5, NET: 10, RES: 5.5, QUAL: 13.5)

After all the dust had settled on a wild weekend, Kansas was going to be our final No. 1 seed.

Yes, the Jayhawks were still going to land one spot behind Houston in spite of that convincing head-to-head victory in Allen Fieldhouse. They gained a lot of ground on the Cougars with that win, but there was a massive gap between what was one week ago our No. 3 and No. 9 overall seeds out of the Big 12.

Alas, Kansas took yet another bad road loss in conference play Monday night, this time falling to its in-state rival in overtime.

The Jayhawks are now 1-4 away from home in Big 12 games with three of the losses—Kansas State, UCF and West Virginia—coming against teams not projected for the NCAA tournament. (Their lone road win over Oklahoma State also meets that description.)

While their collection of top wins—Connecticut, Houston, Tennessee (in Maui)—is extremely strong, that list of losses has grown problematic enough to bump Kansas from No. 4 to No. 8 in what is a very tight grouping of teams on the seed list.

That Sunflower Sundown result pushed North Carolina back up to the No. 1 line following its big win over Duke, with Tennessee right on the Heels' heels. The head-to-head result in Chapel Hill is pretty well the tie-breaker there between what are otherwise mighty similar resumes.

Fifth-to-Last In: Northwestern Wildcats (15-7, NET: 58, RES: 35.5, QUAL: 47.0)—Still zero wins away from home against viable bid candidates.

Fourth-to-Last In: Virginia Cavaliers (18-5, NET: 42, RES: 32.0, QUAL: 46.0)—Back from the dead courtesy of a seven-game winning streak.

Third-to-Last In: Cincinnati Bearcats (15-7, NET: 30, RES: 45.0, QUAL: 28.0)—Winning at Texas Tech gets them back into the field.

Second-to-Last In: St. John's Red Storm (13-9, NET: 43, RES: 53.0, QUAL: 37.5—Losing five of six has dropped Johnnies to danger zone.

Last Team In: Mississippi State Bulldogs (14-8, NET: 44, RES: 45.5, QUAL: 40.0)—Lost six of nine, plus horrible home loss to Southern.

****CUT LINE****

First Team Out: Colorado Buffaloes (15-7, NET: 29, RES: 51.0, QUAL: 39.0)—Close loss at Utah keeps Buffaloes on outside looking in.

Second Team Out: Providence Friars (14-8, NET: 59, RES: 60.5, QUAL: 49.0)—Simply have not been the same since losing Bryce Hopkins.

Third Team Out: Xavier Musketeers (12-10, NET: 47, RES: 62.5, QUAL: 37.0)—Losses aplenty, but against one of toughest schedules in nation.

Fourth Team Out: Villanova Wildcats (12-10, NET: 45, RES: 64.0, QUAL: 34.5)—Very similar to Xavier, but with one additional bad loss.

Fifth Team Out: Richmond Spiders (16-6, NET: 74, RES: 55.5, QUAL: 78.0)—Loss at VCU bumps Richmond out, but with a pulse.

4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 4. North Carolina, 14. Duke, 31. Clemson, 44. Virginia

Also Considered: Miami, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech

Biggest Change: Virginia separates from the logjam of ACC teams on the wrong side of the bubble

Ten weeks into the season, Virginia was one of the worst away-from-home teams imaginable.

The Cavaliers were (and still are) undefeated at home, but their five losses away from home all came by a margin of at least 16 points.

Aside from the neutral-site game against Wisconsin, we're not talking about great competition, either. They got blown out by a Memphis team that doesn't blow out anyone. They got smoked by Notre Dame and NC State early in league play.

But they won at Georgia Tech three Saturdays ago, won at Louisville two Saturdays ago and picked up a quality win—their best of the entire season—this past Saturday at Clemson.

It almost ended in disaster. With a late four-point lead, UVA fouled a three-point shooter and missed free throws of its own to leave the door open for Clemson to get off a possible game-winning shot at the buzzer. It didn't fall, though, and UVA's winning streak extended to a season-best six games.

The Cavaliers then pushed that winning streak to seven games by completely shutting down Miami in a 60-38 victory Monday night.

Virginia's resume still isn't great, but it's good enough on a bubble where seemingly everyone has multiple bad losses and/or a short supply of respectable wins.

10 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 3. Houston, 8. Kansas, 12. Baylor, 16. Iowa State, 19. BYU, 23. Oklahoma, 26. Texas Tech, 29. TCU, 34. Texas, 45. Cincinnati

Also Considered: UCF, Kansas State

Biggest Change: Texas gets another big road win

The Longhorns have struggled to protect home court thus far in Big 12 play, sitting at 1-3 in league games played in the Moody Center. They did at least take Houston to overtime last Monday before taking that L, but the previous losses to Texas Tech (by 11) and UCF weren't great.

They've made up for those three home losses with three road wins, though.

Texas previously had road victories over both Cincinnati and Oklahoma, and it added a third Q1 road win over TCU on Saturday.

And it was all thanks to Max Abmas.

In what was a tie game with 3:30 remaining, Abmas went on a personal 11-0 run and scored the final 13 points of Texas' 77-66 victory.

The Longhorns were our last team in the field one week ago, but that was a huge boost. With four Q1A wins, they're now looking good for something in the Nos. 8-10 seed range.

They do need to at least start winning at home, though, because even a 9-9 record in Big 12 play might not cut it after they entered league play with nothing close to a quality win on their resume.

If Texas were to go 5-4 the rest of the way—winning the homes against Iowa State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and West Virginia and losing the road games against Houston, Kansas, Baylor and Texas Tech—it would be a classic "let's see what happens in the conference tournament" type of bubble team.

For this week, though, Longhorns stock is undeniably up.

6 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 2. Connecticut, 7. Marquette, 13. Creighton, 40. Butler, 42. Seton Hall, 46. St. John's

Also Considered: Providence, Xavier, Villanova

Biggest Change: Butler gets its second massive road win, moves somewhat comfortably into the field

At some point in the middle of last week, I noticed a lot of bracketologists scrubbing Butler barely into their projected fields, and I couldn't figure out why exactly that was. Yeah, the Bulldogs had that great road win over Marquette early in league play, but they were outside the top 50 in all the metrics and there were simply better overall resumes out there, even on a wide-open bubble.

But their February schedule consists of two games against Creighton, road games against Connecticut, Villanova and Seton Hall and home games against Marquette, Providence and St. John's.

It was a classic "Will sort itself out in due time" sort of situation, and it already has to some extent.

On Friday night, Butler waltzed into Omaha, dropped 99 points on what is usually a strong Creighton defense and picked up another gigantic W.

In addition to solid nonconference wins over Texas Tech (home) and Boise State (neutral), the Bulldogs now have four Q1 wins with only one loss outside of that tier—a home loss to Seton Hall, which isn't bad by any means.

No rest for the weary, though. Going 4-5 the rest of the way should be enough for Butler to get a bid, but that means winning at least two of the games still remaining on that gauntlet of a February slate. And the home game against Providence this coming Saturday might be the "easiest" to get.

6 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Purdue, 9. Wisconsin, 15. Illinois, 33. Nebraska, 35. Michigan State, 43. Northwestern

Also Considered: N/A

Biggest Change: Northwestern's road woes continue

"They have two gigantic road games remaining, Wednesday night at Purdue and on March 6 at Michigan State. If they don't win either of those road games, they might need to win at least three of the other four (Minnesota, Rutgers, Indiana and Maryland) and continue to take care of business at home in order to feel assured of a bid."

That's what we wrote about Northwestern one week ago, and the road was not kind to the Wildcats since then, losing in overtime at Purdue and in overtime at Minnesota.

So, at this point, if they don't plan on winning at Michigan State on March 6, they just about need to be flawless the rest of the way aside from that game.

The simple fact of the matter is that Northwestern only has that one Q1 game left on the schedule. Any loss (aside from MSU) would be viewed as a misstep and yet another reason to cast aspersions on a team that A) played a terrible nonconference schedule, B) suffered an atrocious home loss to Chicago State and C) has not played well at all away from home.

The four great wins have not gone anywhere, nor will they go anywhere. The Wildcats beat Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State and Dayton at home. That is a great haul of Q1 wins.

But if they still have just four Q1 wins come Selection Sunday, plus a double-digit number in the loss column and all the other issues noted above, it might not end well for them.

Start doing some damage on the road, please. And don't slip up at home against Nebraska or Penn State this week.

5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 20. San Diego State, 21. Utah State, 27. Boise State, 28. Colorado State, 30. New Mexico

Also Considered: Nevada

Biggest Change: Boise State gets a rare W at The Pit

Heading into this past Wednesday, New Mexico was a perfect 10-0 at home and seemed to be getting stronger by the game. All four of the Lobos' home wins in Mountain West play were by double digits, three of them coming against NCAA tournament hopefuls. The most recent game at The Pit was a 34-point drubbing of Nevada.

But nobody told Boise State's Max Rice that he and the Broncos were supposed to kowtow to their overlords in Albuquerque. Rice went off for 35 points as Boise State pulled away late for a surprising eight-point victory.

The Broncos made certain not to follow it up with a letdown loss, too, pummeling Air Force 94-56 on Saturday, averaging an outrageous 1.59 points per possession in that blowout.

Colossal week for a team that was somewhat on the bubble. Boise State was our bottom No. 9 seed one week ago, but that road win over New Mexico was a game-changer, easily the Broncos' most-impressive win of the season. They now have a total of eight wins against teams in the KenPom top 100, and with no losses outside of that group.

Even if they lose both of the road games against Colorado State and Utah State in the next seven days, they should remain in good shape heading into the home stretch. But a win in either of those games would put them firmly in "just don't screw up against a bottom-four team in the league" territory.

3 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 6. Arizona, 25. Utah, 41. Washington State

Also Considered: Colorado, Oregon

Biggest Change: Oregon's flimsy at-large case takes a big hit

It's still a little baffling that a Pac-12 road trip to USC and UCLA is almost a non-negotiable "you must win both games" situation for any team on the bubble, but that's where we're at these days with both the Trojans and Bruins saddled with double-digit losses and nowhere close to the at-large conversation.

And after winning at USC Thursday, Oregon turned around and lost at UCLA.

The Ducks immediately fell behind 23-5 against the Bruins, but they rallied to reclaim the lead (32-31) before halftime even arrived. However, they were outplayed in the second half and unable to buy a bucket in the final few minutes of what may have been a final-straw type of loss.

Oregon was already a highly suspect at-large candidate. The road wins over Washington and Washington State look great on the nitty-gritty sheet, but neither of those Q1 wins came against a surefire NCAA tournament team. Aside from that, Oregon's best wins were the neutral-site season opener against Georgia and probably Thursday's win at 13-loss at USC.

It's not pretty.

The Ducks were already not in the projected field, and after the loss to UCLA, they will really need to play their way back into the mix.

They almost certainly need to win each of their next six—vs. Washington, vs. Washington State, at Oregon State, at Stanford, at Cal, vs. Oregon State. And if they fail to win at Arizona on March 2, they probably need to win the subsequent home games against Colorado and Utah to enter the Pac-12 tournament with a realistic chance at a bid.

[On the flip side of the Pac-12 bubble, nice OT road win for Washington State at Washington Saturday night. Coupled with Colorado losing at Utah, the Cougars of Wazzu are undeniably the league's third-best candidate for a spot in the field.]

9 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 5. Tennessee, 10. Alabama, 17. Auburn, 18. South Carolina, 24. Kentucky, 36. Texas A&M, 38. Florida, 39. Ole Miss, 48. Mississippi State

Also Considered: Georgia

Biggest Change: South Carolina rapidly approaching a lock

It hasn't even been a decade since South Carolina started the 2015-16 season with 15 consecutive wins only to miss the NCAA tournament. So you'll have to forgive Gamecocks fans if they have no interest in counting their chickens before they hatch.

But after road victories over Tennessee and Georgia in the past week—this coming shortly after a statement, 17-point win over Kentucky—it's getting difficult to envision a scenario in which this 19-3 team doesn't make the dance.

If the Gamecocks win at home this week against both Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, that probably seals the deal, as they'll only have one non-Q1 game remaining (vs. LSU on Feb. 17) after this coming weekend—otherwise read as virtually no "opportunity" to pick up bad losses.

As if the road win over Tennessee wasn't sensational enough when it happened, the Volunteers made it look even better by going on the road and taking care of business against Kentucky, getting themselves back into the conversation for a No. 1 seed—while maybe, sort of, kind of pushing the Wildcats toward the bubble? (UK's neutral win over North Carolina keeps that from being a serious conversation just yet, but we would implore the Wildcats to not lose at Vanderbilt on Tuesday night.)

Was that W at Tennessee the best win by any team in the country? Purdue, Connecticut, Houston, North Carolina, Kansas and Arizona all have yet to suffer a home loss, so yeah, it just might be.

At any rate, it's the type of win that took what was already a borderline No. 6/7 seed and turned it into a borderline No. 4/5 seed.

The predictive metrics still aren't buying what South Carolina is selling, but with maybe the best win in the country, three Q1 wins, seven Q1/Q2 wins and only one remotely questionable loss (vs. Georgia), the Gamecocks have a damn fine resume.

25 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 11. Dayton, 22. Florida Atlantic, 32. Saint Mary's, 37. Indiana State, 47. Grand Canyon, 49. Appalachian State, 50. McNeese State, 51. Samford, 52. Cornell, 53. Vermont, 54. Akron, 55. UC Irvine, 56. High Point, 57. Louisiana Tech, 58. Morehead State, 59. Oakland, 60. Quinnipiac, 61. Drexel, 62. Colgate, 63. Eastern Washington, 64. Southern, 65. Norfolk State, 66. Eastern Kentucky, 67. Merrimack, 68. North Dakota

Also Considered: Memphis, Richmond, Drake, Gonzaga

Biggest Changes: The Ivy League and the Southland "officially" become one-bid leagues, Memphis' tumble continues in earnest and Saint Mary's is all the way back

The four-team Ivy League tournament featuring Cornell, Princeton, Yale and the TBD fourth-place finisher should be an amazing event. But after both Cornell and Yale handed losses to Princeton in the past two weeks, there's no question that only the winner of that tournament will be representing the Ivy League in the NCAA tournament. (Though, probably as a No. 13 seed, at worst, provided it's not the TBD fourth-place finisher stealing a bid.)

Elsewhere, McNeese State's 14-game winning streak came to an end in a road loss to Southeastern Louisiana. The Cowboys almost miraculously erased a nine-point deficit in the final 30 seconds, but ran out of gas against an opponent that seemingly couldn't miss a shot all night. Any loss in the otherwise woeful Southland Conference was going to push McNeese to "auto bid or bust" territory, and there it is.

Lastly on the negative front, Memphis took yet another awful loss this past week. Its worst of all, in fact, falling at home to a sub-.500 Rice team that otherwise has not defeated a KenPom top 225 foe. After that fourth consecutive L, the Tigers are no longer worthy of serious at-large consideration, likely needing to get a win over Florida Atlantic to have any hope of getting back into the mix for a bid.

Finally, Saint Mary's scored a big-time road win over Gonzaga late Saturday night. After a 3-5 start the year, the Gaels have won 15 out of 16 and now have four Q1 wins to go along with what have blossomed into solid metrics. If they go 6-1 down the stretch (losing to either Gonzaga or San Francisco at home), there's a strong chance they could get an at-large bid should they falter (again, against Gonzaga or San Francisco) in the WCC tournament. Quite the turnaround from that brutal first month.