NCAA Tournament 2024: Stock Watch for Men's Bubble Teams

Like a gigantic deck of cards, the bubble for the 2024 men's NCAA tournament just keeps shuffling on a weekly basis.

For every Butler or Florida playing its way into the field, there's at least one Colorado or St. John's fumbling its way out of the at-large picture.

If only because Selection Sunday is now less than six weeks away, though, the bubble is beginning to shrink and solidify.

Yes, there are always teams dancing around the cut line, but it feels like with each passing week, 4-5 more teams all but lock up a bid (see: South Carolina) while a similar number of teams falls from "in the hunt" to "would need a miracle at this point" (see: Florida State).

But let's take a look at which bubble teams have done the most climbing and falling over the course of their past three games.

We're not going to talk about every single team currently on the bubble—just the noteworthy movers and shakers. Moreover, unless there's a compelling reason to do so, we're avoiding teams that appeared in our bubble stock watch from one week ago. (Poor Memphis has been through enough.)

Teams are presented in no particular order, outside of oscillating between Stock Up and Stock Down.

NET and RES/QUAL metrics are current through the start of play on Tuesday, Feb. 6, and are courtesy of BartTorvik.

Current Resume: 15-7, NET: 41, RES: 33.0, QUAL: 30.5, 1-7 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2, 7-0 vs. Q3, 4-0 vs. Q4

Last Three Games: Loss at Texas A&M, Win at Kentucky, Win vs. Georgia

One week ago, Florida was the pinnacle of bubble-ness: winless against Q1; undefeated outside of Q1; incessantly tiptoeing around the cut line.

But on the final day of January, the Gators finally did it. They got a marquee win on the road against Kentucky, when the Wildcats indefensibly opted not to foul up three at the end of regulation. This allowed Walter Clayton Jr. to drain his sixth three-pointer of the night, sending the game to overtime where Florida's tournament resume sprouted its first flower.

The Gators could have just about cemented their spot in the field with a subsequent road win over Texas A&M, but they narrowly let that one slip away, held scoreless over the final three minutes of that one-point, Q1 loss.

Still, they've suffered nothing close to a bad loss and appear to be in good shape heading into the final month of the regular season.

With Kentucky currently looking like a No. 6 seed, though, Florida almost certainly will need to add another Q1 win. The Gators host Auburn this Saturday, play at South Carolina in early March and have two games left against Alabama. Even if they take care of business in the other five games to maintain a clean Q2/Q3/Q4 record, losing those four to enter the SEC tournament with a 1-11 Q1 record might be a bridge too far.

They got one quality win now, though. That's progress.

Current Resume: 20-3, NET: 71, RES: 78.5, QUAL: 71.5, 0-1 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2, 2-0 vs. Q3, 11-1 vs. Q4

Last Three Games: Win vs. Texas A&M-Commerce, Loss at Southeastern Louisiana, Win vs. New Orleans

In our previous bubble stock watch, we bemoaned the lack of legitimate at-large candidates from conventional one-bid leagues in light of losses by Princeton, Grand Canyon and James Madison, which knocked those teams either hopelessly out of the conversation or close to it.

But we praised McNeese State for carrying the torch for the smaller schools, stringing together 14 consecutive wins in the quest to make the Southland a multi-bid league for the first time in more than a half-century of the conference's existence.

Sadly, that winning streak is now kaput, as are the Cowboys' dreams of an at-large bid following a Q4 loss to Southeastern Louisiana.

It was a pretty serious "No Freaking Way" game from the Lions, who had their best shooting performance of the season, making 40 of 63 total shots, including free throws. During a 24-4 run in the first half, SELA shot 10-for-11 in burying McNeese State under an insurmountable deficit.

McNeese's argument for an at-large bid was never going to be a strong one. But if it had been able to run that winning streak to 25 games before falling to 30-3 with a loss in the conference championship game, there was at least a chance.

But no longer. The Southland will remain a one-bid league yet again.

Current Resume: 15-8, NET: 48, RES: 43.5, QUAL: 58.5, 3-7 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2, 2-0 vs. Q3, 6-0 vs. Q4

Last Three Games: Loss at Connecticut, Win at Creighton, Win vs. Villanova

It's always a little weird to say a team's stock is up fresh off a loss. But falling short on the road against projected No. 1 seed Connecticut is no big deal compared to Butler's prior massive road win over projected No. 3/4 seed Creighton.

Prior to both that victory and the double-OT home win over Villanova, Butler's case for an at-large bid wasn't great. It did have a phenomenal road win over Marquette, a neutral-site victory over Boise State and a home win over Texas Tech, but the metrics just weren't good, hovering around 60th across the board.

If the Bulldogs were in the projected field two weeks ago, it was by the skin of their teeth.

But outlasting a bubble-y Villanova team and scoring a major resume win at Creighton has completely changed the story for Butler. The Bulldogs now have two fantastic road wins and a trio of impressive second-tier Ws, and with nothing worse than a handful of losses to the Big East bubble weighing them down.

That said, the fight isn't finished yet. Butler still has home games against Marquette, Creighton, St. John's, Providence and Xavier, as well as road games against Villanova, Seton Hall and DePaul. The Bulldogs certainly should beat the atrocious Blue Demons, but can they win at least two, maybe three to be safe, of the other seven games left on the calendar?

If they win the DePaul, Providence and Xavier games and lose the rest, it might be a photo finish. As long as it's close, though, those road wins over Creighton and Marquette should do a whole lot of heavy lifting with the selection committee.

Current Resume: 14-8, NET: 58, RES: 61.0, QUAL: 49.5, 3-5 vs. Q1, 2-3 vs. Q2, 0-0 vs. Q3, 9-0 vs. Q4

Last Three Games: Loss at Villanova, Loss at Connecticut, Win vs. Georgetown

Before losing Bryce Hopkins to a torn ACL, Providence was a legitimate contender. The Friars were 11-2 with some impressive victories over Marquette and Wisconsin. That late-December OT win over Butler also looks pretty good now that the Bulldogs are sitting pretty for a bid.

Since the Hopkins injury, however, it's a much different story.

Providence did steal one on the road against Seton Hall when Kadary Richmond was out. But aside from that, six losses and just two largely meaningless wins over DePaul and Georgetown. (The Georgetown win was an emotional one against former coach Ed Cooley, but a meaningless Q4 game for bracketology purposes.)

Even if you don't split Providence's season as "With Hopkins" and "Without Hopkins," the overall state of the resume just isn't great anymore.

Of the five metrics on the team sheet, only BPI (No. 42) paints the Friars as a top-55 team. And if you take out the nine Q4 games, they have an overall record of 5-8 against the top three Quadrants, which is an ugly mark.

Their bubble-y Big East brethren aren't in substantially better shape in that latter department. St. John's is 9-9 against the top three Quadrants. Seton Hall is 7-8, Villanova is 8-10 and Xavier is 7-10. Still, those are definitely better than 5-8, and all four of those teams are at or near the chopping block.

Opportunities do abound for the Friars, though. A home win over Creighton or a road win over Butler in the next few days would be huge. They also have games remaining against Connecticut, Marquette, St. John's, Xavier and Villanova. But the way they've been playing over the past five weeks, that schedule figures to knock them out of the at-large conversation for good.

Current Resume: 20-3, NET: 23, RES: 21.5, QUAL: 38.0, 1-3 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2, 6-0 vs. Q3, 9-0 vs. Q4

Last Three Games: Win vs. Drake, Win at Belmont, Win vs. Bradley

In the Missouri Valley Conference where there simply are not many great wins to be found, you couldn't ask for a much better three-game stretch from the league's best at-large candidate.

The Sycamores needed overtime to get the home win over Bradley, but they polished off that season sweep of the third-best team in the conference. One week later, they avenged their road loss to Drake with a solid victory—probably knocking the Bulldogs out of the at-large conversation while strengthening their own case for a bid.

Both of those were Q2 victories, which the Sycamores needed to get in order to have a realistic argument for an at-large bid if they get tripped up in Arch Madness.

Even the win in between at Belmont was respectable. That's a Q3 result, but one that is much closer to Q2 than it is to Q4.

Now it's time for the tightrope walk to the finish line.

Indiana State will not play anything close to a Q1 game the rest of the way, unless it draws Drake or Bradley in the MVC tournament. And the road game against Southern Illinois on Feb. 17 might end up being the only Q2 game left in the regular season. It's really just landmine avoidance the rest of the way for the Sycamores.

But they made it through a tough stretch unscathed and could be eight more wins away from securing a bid.

Current Resume: 15-7, NET: 29, RES: 52.0, QUAL: 38.5, 1-4 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2, 2-0 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4

Last Three Games: Loss at Utah, Loss at Washington State, Win at Washington

The good news for Colorado is it did finally pick up a Q1 win.

The bad news for Colorado is nobody is overly impressed with that road victory over NET No. 73 Washington, and the Buffaloes are no longer in a position to absorb "acceptable losses."

Were we talking about a team that was already somewhat comfortably in the field, losing back-to-back Q1A games at Utah and at Washington State wouldn't be a big deal. But with three questionable losses (Florida State, California and Arizona State) and no marquee wins, those were games Colorado just about needed to win.

Maybe they didn't need to win both, but not winning either game leaves the Buffaloes in a tough spot with limited opportunities to climb back into the projected field.

They have nine regular-season games remaining, one of which is the home game against Arizona this Saturday. And if they don't upset the Wildcats, they probably need to go 8-0 in the other games left on the schedule to enter the Pac-12 tournament in good shape.

That's because six of those games—at UCLA, at USC, at Oregon State, vs. Arizona State, vs. Cal and vs. Stanford—won't do anything to move the needle unless they're losses. And even the other two—vs. Utah, at Oregon—are going to land somewhere on the border of Q1/Q2, which fall into that tough range of games that would be nice to win but damaging to lose.

If Colorado does sneak into the field, it feels like a team that could go on a bit of a run. But the jury remains out on whether the Buffaloes get in after the two recent missed opportunities.

Current Resume: 19-6, NET: 21, RES: 45.5, QUAL: 23.5, 4-3 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2, 4-2 vs. Q3, 8-0 vs. Q4

Last Three Games: Win at Pacific, Win at Gonzaga, Win vs. Santa Clara

We also had Saint Mary's as a Stock Up team last week. But when you win at Gonzaga to push your record to 15-1 in the past 16 games, you're afforded a second consecutive week of love.

It's uncommon for this to happen, though, as a team making a considerable move up the seed list in back-to-back weeks would typically no longer be projected for worse than a No. 7 seed.

But Saint Mary's had to be darn near flawless for two months just to play its way back into the conversation for an at-large bid. And following Saturday's road win over the Zags, the Gaels are looking good for a No. 8/9 seed—which could result in their first ever matchup with a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

There has been a lot of debating whether Gonzaga could still play its way into an at-large bid, but now the WCC bracketology question is: What would it take for Saint Mary's to miss the dance?

The Gaels have six regular-season games remaining—home against Gonzaga and San Francisco and a quartet of what are presently Quad 4 games against Pepperdine (two), Portland and San Diego.

Losing any of those Q4 games would be catastrophic. But assuming they hold serve against those four potential landmines, it's plausible Saint Mary's could get a bid even with losses to San Francisco and Gonzaga before another loss to one of those teams in the WCC championship.

The Gaels' metrics are great, they have four strong wins and have suffered only two remotely questionable losses to Weber State and Missouri State. Maybe there are enough bid thieves and enough bubble teams playing their way into the field that a 25-9 Saint Mary's misses the cut, but it might be enough. Going 5-1 or even 6-0 down the stretch should seal the deal, though.

Current Resume: 15-7, NET: 59, RES: 36.0, QUAL: 47.0, 4-5 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2, 2-0 vs. Q3, 7-1 vs. Q4

Last Three Games: Loss at Minnesota, Loss at Purdue, win vs. Ohio State

It's fitting that a pair of overtime losses contribute to Northwestern slipping to the bubble, because it was a pair of overtime wins that put this team in the mix for a bid in the first place.

Those wins came at home against Purdue and Illinois. The Wildcats also picked up quality home wins over Dayton and Michigan State earlier this season. That's a huge quartet of victories, regardless of venue.

But coming up just short at Purdue was a huge missed opportunity, while the subsequent loss at Minnesota furthered an ongoing narrative that Northwestern can't win away from home.

The Wildcats do have four road/neutral wins, but against Penn State, Arizona State, Rhode Island and DePaul. Whatever good those four wins do for their resume is more than erased by the terrible home loss to Chicago State and the abysmal nonconference strength of schedule. (Though, for what it's worth, I don't understand how a schedule including a home game against Dayton, a neutral game against Mississippi State and a road game against Arizona State can be rated this poorly. Northwestern did schedule mostly cupcakes, but sheesh.)

As things currently stand, Northwestern deserves to be in—but almost certainly as a double-digit seed. And now the problem becomes a lack of opportunities moving forward.

It's still weird to say that about the Big Ten with a little over a month to go, but the Wildcats don't face Purdue, Wisconsin or Illinois again. They do get a road game against Michigan State, but that's the only needle-mover left before the Big Ten tournament. So if they don't beat the Spartans in East Lansing, they almost need to win every other game to keep the resume from getting any more suspect than it is today.

Northwestern hosting Nebraska on Wednesday night will be a massive bubble game.

Current Resume: 18-5, NET: 32, RES: 28.5, QUAL: 40.0, 2-2 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2, 4-1 vs. Q3, 8-0 vs. Q4

Last Three Games: Win vs. Miami, Win at Clemson, Win vs. Notre Dame

Less than a month ago—on the heels of back-to-back losses to NC State and Wake Forest by a combined margin of 35 points and a couple of weeks after an egregious 22-point loss at Notre Dame—Virginia's chances of making the NCAA tournament were...not great.

The Cavaliers were 65th in NET and 69th on KenPom. They had one Q1 win which barely qualified (on a neutral court against then NET No. 48 Florida), one Q2 win (vs. Texas A&M) and the bad, Q3 loss to Notre Dame.

Felt like it was going to take some sort of miracle, and that the Cavaliers weren't going to find it because of how poorly they were playing away from home.

But they snapped out of that funk and are now winners of three consecutive road games, and seven overall.

The biggest, by far, was this past Saturday's win at Clemson. The most impressive was Monday night's 60-38 home win over Miami.

During this seven-game winning streak, Virginia has allowed 54.9 points, compared to 72.0 in their five losses. It's nothing new that the defensive end of the floor is where Tony Bennett's team does its best work, but it has been four or five years since they've been this consistently dominant on D.

That said, this is still a bubble-y resume.

The Clemson win was a big help, but we're still talking about a team with three wins over the projected field, the best of which came against a team currently looking like a No. 7 or No. 8 seed. That plus the four losses to teams not projected to dance is not a pretty combo.

UVA has road games remaining against Florida State, Virginia Tech, Boston College and Duke, as well as home games against Pitt, Wake Forest, North Carolina and Georgia Tech. That's three Q1, four Q2 and a Q3 based on current NET ratings. If they win the five "worst" games and lose the three Q1 games, it'll be a photo finish.

(And before you point out they would be 14-6 in ACC play, a reminder that 2018 Nebraska was left out with a 13-5 Big Ten record that even included a 20-point victory over a Michigan team that was ultimately given a No. 3 seed.)

Seton Hall's Resume: 14-8, NET: 65, RES: 57.0, QUAL: 64.5, 4-4 vs. Q1, 1-3 vs. Q2, 2-1 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4

Last Three Games: Win at DePaul, Loss at Marquette, Loss vs. Providence

St John's Resume: 14-9, NET: 43, RES: 53.5, QUAL: 38.0, 2-7 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2, 2-1 vs. Q3, 4-0 vs. Q4

Last Three Games: Win vs. DePaul, Loss vs. Connecticut, Loss at Xavier

For both of these Big East bubble teams, it has been a slow slide toward the cut line as opposed to some drastic fall from grace.

Before they squared off on Jan. 16 (with Seton Hall getting the win at home), both the Pirates and the Red Storm were projected in the Nos. 8-9 seed range, which is definitively no longer the case.

If they played today, it would likely be a "Loser Leaves the Projected Field" type of showdown. (They do play again on Feb. 18, by the way.)

That's because all they've managed to accomplish recently are a couple of wins over DePaul. St. John's also had a home win over Villanova on Jan. 24, but they've both whiffed on two huge opportunities against the top three in the Big East (Connecticut, Creighton and Marquette) and also picked up a less-than-stellar loss to a team not projected to dance (Providence and Xavier).

Of the two, St. John's has the better metrics, but Seton Hall has the better collection of top wins, knocking off both Connecticut and Marquette in Newark, and also getting a strong road win over Butler. The Johnnies have a hearty stockpile of decent wins, but nothing close to victories over the Huskies or Golden Eagles. And if it comes down to these two teams for one final spot in the field, Seton Hall's marquee wins would arguably make the difference.

But a lot can still change in the Big East, where any win over a team aside from DePaul or Georgetown is at least worth mentioning. Both teams still have two games left against the league's upper echelon, as well as a whole bunch of bubble-y games.