Fallen 2023-24 Preseason Contenders Still Capable of March Madness Runs

Each year, there are a handful of teams that enter the college basketball season with lofty expectations only to stumble out of the gates and steadily tumble down the rankings as the regular season unfolds.

In many cases, those early struggles are unsalvageable and it turns into a lost season, but sometimes a team can get hot when it matters most and overcome a slow start to make some serious noise in the NCAA tournament.

Ahead, we've highlighted fallen preseason contenders who are still capable of making a March Madness run.

In order to be eligible for inclusion, a team had to appear in the preseason AP Top 25 poll, no longer be ranked, not be projected for better than a No. 8 seed in the Bracket Matrix, and still appear in the top 75 in the KenPom rankings, meaning there is still a conceivable path to an NCAA tournament at-large berth.

Preseason AP Ranking: 22

KenPom Ranking: 34

Bracket Matrix: N/A

The Villanova Wildcats won the Battle for Atlantis back in November with three wins in three days over Texas Tech, North Carolina and Memphis, and they peaked at No. 18 in the AP poll immediately following that impressive run.

However, they already had an ugly loss on their resume heading into that stretch when they fell on the road against Penn (NET: 210) on Nov. 13, and on the other side of their Battle for Atlantis success they suffered back-to-back Quad 3 losses to Saint Joseph's (NET: 95) and Drexel (NET: 126).

Is that too big of a hole to overcome?

They have already lost both of their matchups against Marquette and their first game against UConn, and while they do have a road victory over Creighton, they are running out of chances to pad their resume in the Big East.

A strong defense that ranks No. 23 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency and three Quad 1 wins give them a foundation, but the bad may ultimately outweigh the good.

Preseason AP Ranking: 18

KenPom Ranking: 26

Bracket Matrix: N/A

The Texas Longhorns went 11-2 in non-conference play and still held onto a spot in the AP Top 25 poll heading into Big 12 action.

However, after a 1-3 start in conference with losses to Texas Tech, West Virginia and UCF, they fell out of the Top 25, and they have failed to string together consecutive Big 12 wins during a 5-6 start to conference play.

They bolstered their resume with road wins against Oklahoma and TCU in recent weeks, and they will have plenty of opportunities to add more Quad 1 success in the coming weeks with road games against Houston, Kansas and Baylor still on the docket.

Transfer Max Abmas (17.7 PPG, 4.4 APG) has made a smooth transition after lighting up the scoreboard at Oral Roberts for four seasons, while Tyrese Hunter, Dillon Mitchell and a healthy Dylan Disu are also key contributors for a team that ranks 20th in KenPom's offensive efficiency.

Preseason AP Ranking: 15

KenPom Ranking: 39

Bracket Matrix: No. 9 seed

The Texas A&M Aggies finished the 2022-23 season ranked No. 17 in the final AP poll, but they were upended as a No. 7 seed in the first round of the NCAA tournament, losing by 17 points to No. 10 seed Penn State.

With leading scorer Wade Taylor IV (19.9 PPG, 3.8 APG) returning and fellow starters Tyrece Radford (15.0 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and Henry Coleman (9.9 PPG, 6.9 RPG) also back for another year, the Aggies were a top-15 team when the season began.

They picked up some quality wins early in the season, beating SMU and Ohio State on the road before taking down Iowa State and Penn State at the ESPN Events Invitational.

However, a 3-4 start to SEC play sent them tumbling out of the national picture, and that stretch included a Quad 3 loss at home against LSU (NET: 96) that will be a black eye on their resume.

That said, things are looking up with three straight victories, punctuated by an 85-69 win over No. 6 Tennessee on Saturday. Radford (27 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists) and Taylor (25 points, 7 assists) both had terrific games against the Volunteers, and that serves as a marquee win heading into the second half of conference play.

Preseason AP Ranking: 13

KenPom Ranking: 73

Bracket Matrix: N/A

With Norchad Omier (17.7 PPG, 9.8 RPG), Nijel Pack (14.3 PPG, 37.6 3PT%) and Wooga Poplar (13.9 PPG, 5.1 RPG) all returning from a team that won 29 games and made an unexpected run to the Final Four as a No. 5 seed, the Miami Hurricanes were expected to be ACC contenders once again.

Aside from the strong numbers posted by that returning trio, Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland (13.9 PPG, 6.0 RPG) has also helped replace some of the production that departed with Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller.

Despite some solid individual performers, they currently rank outside the Top 50 in KenPom's offensive efficiency (61st) and defensive efficiency (101st), and have gone 4-7 in their last 11 games.

A lopsided 90-63 loss to unranked Colorado on Dec. 10 knocked them out of the Top 25 rankings, and ugly home losses to Louisville (NET: 176) and Florida State (NET: 97) in January further damaged their resume. In a relatively weak ACC field, they are running out of opportunities to bolster their case for a spot in the NCAA tournament.

They will need to avoid any further bad losses and win one of their remaining games against North Carolina or Duke to have a shot at an at-large bid. Even then, it could take a deep run in the ACC tournament to move them off the bubble.

Preseason AP Ranking: 11

KenPom Ranking: 19

Bracket Matrix: N/A

The Gonzaga Bulldogs have already matched last season's loss total, and they find themselves in serious danger of missing the NCAA tournament for the first time since the 1997-98 season.

With Drew Timme (21.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Rasir Bolton (10.1 PPG) and Malachi Smith (8.7 PPG) all graduated, Julian Strawther (15.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG) on to the NBA and seldom-used former 5-star recruit Hunter Sallis (4.5 PPG) now the leading scorer at Wake Forest, the Bulldogs had a ton of production to replace.

Wyoming transfer Graham Ike (15.3 PPG, 7.2 RPG) has emerged as the team's leading scorer, while holdovers Anton Watson (14.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Nolan Hickman (13.2 PPG) and Ryan Nembhard (12.1 PPG, 5.9 APG) are all doing their part, but this is simply not the same dominant team we've seen in recent years.

They have fallen to 23rd in KenPom's offensive efficiency after leading the way in that category a year ago, and their defense once again falls into the good-not-great category.

They finally picked up their first Quad 1 victory of the year with an 89-85 win over Kentucky on Saturday, and they have a rematch with Saint Mary's on March 2 after losing by two points earlier this month. Would a win in that game be enough if the Gaels were to come out on top in a potential third matchup in the conference tournament?

Preseason AP Ranking: 4

KenPom Ranking: 15

Bracket Matrix: No. 9 seed

The Michigan State Spartans experienced less roster turnover than perhaps any major conference team in college basketball heading into the 2023-24 season.

Here's what they brought back from last season:

• Tyson Walker: 33.9 MPG, 14.8 PPG, 41.5 3PT%
• A.J. Hoggard: 30.6 MPG, 12.9 PPG, 5.9 APG
• Jaden Akins: 27.4 MPG, 9.8 PPG, 4.0 RPG
• Malik Hall: 25.7 MPG, 8.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG
• Mady Sissoko: 21.4 MPG, 5.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG

The only major loss to last year's rotation was Joey Hauser, and a strong recruiting class along with rising sophomore Tre Holloman looked more than capable of replacing that lost production in pursuit of a national title.

Instead, the Spartans lost their season opener at home against James Madison and have never quite looked like the dominant team they were expected to be at any point this season.

This still looks like a tournament team, and they boosted their resume with a nice home win over Illinois on Saturday, but they are a far cry from the squad they were expected to be as the preseason No. 4 in the nation.