NCAA Tournament 2024: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams

It was a busy day for teams on Bubble Watch on Tuesday, with seven sides that are clearly jockeying for a spot in the 2024 men's NCAA tournament all in action, including head-to-head matchups of Pittsburgh vs. Wake Forest and Butler vs. Villanova.

Wake Forest thumped the Panthers, 91-58, while Villanova exacted revenge on the Bulldogs with a 72-62 victory just over three weeks after their seven-point loss to the same opponent.

Meanwhile, Texas A&M suffered its fifth Quad 3 loss of the season in a 78-71 defeat at the hands of Arkansas, and both Boise State and Nevada took care of business against non-contenders in the Mountain West.

Ahead is a full breakdown of the current bubble situation, with a rundown of how things look in each of the five major conferences as well as the Mountain West and the few notable mid-major teams vying for an at-large bid.

Included is their full resume and recent performance over the past three games, leading up to our take of up, down or holding for each team's current stock.

A lot will change in the coming weeks, but this will provide a snapshot of where things stand across the men's college basketball landscape.

Safely in the Projected Field (3): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson

Pittsburgh Panthers (17-9, 8-7 in ACC, NET: 47)

Quad Records: 3-5 vs. Q1, 1-2 vs. Q2, 5-2 vs. Q3, 8-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win @ Virginia, Win vs. Louisville, Loss @ Wake Forest

The Panthers had a 7-1 record over their last eight games heading into Tuesday's matchup against Wake Forest, including Quad 1 road victories over Duke (Jan. 20), NC State (Feb. 7) and Virginia (Feb. 13) that gave their resume a significant boost. However, a 91-58 pummeling at the hands of the Demon Deacons stands as a major blow.

Stock: Down

Virginia Cavaliers (20-6, 11-5 in ACC, NET: 50)

Quad Records: 2-4 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2, 7-1 vs. Q3, 6-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss vs. Pittsburgh, Win vs. Wake Forest, Loss @ Virginia Tech

The Cavaliers suffered the most lopsided conference loss of the Tony Bennett era on Monday night in a 74-41 shellacking at the hands of Virginia Tech. They once again have one of the best defenses in the country, but an offense that checks in No. 170 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency could undercut a group that won eight straight prior to their recent stumble.

Stock: Down

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (17-9, 9-6, in ACC, NET: 40)

Quad Records: 1-6 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2, 5-0 vs. Q3, 6-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss @ Duke, Loss @ Virginia, Win vs. Pittsburgh

The Demon Deacons used a nine-game winning streak that ran through all of December and into January to overcome a slow start, but they are now 6-6 in their last 12 games and teetering on the edge of the bubble. Tuesday's 33-point annihilation of fellow bubble hopeful Pittsburgh could turn the tide heading into the season's final weeks.

Stock: Up

Safely in the Projected Field (8): Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, BYU, TCU, Oklahoma

Cincinnati Bearcats (16-9, 5-7 in Big 12, NET: 37)

Quad Records: 3-6 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2, 3-1 vs. Q3, 8-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss vs. Houston, Loss vs. Iowa State, Win @ UCF

The Bearcats started the season 12-2 with a strong run through non-conference play and an 11-point victory over then-No. 11 BYU in the Big 12 opener, but since that solid start they have not recorded consecutive wins while going 4-7 in their last 11 games. They still have to play TCU (Feb. 24), Houston (Feb. 27) and Oklahoma (March 5) all on the road.

Stock: Down

Texas Longhorns (17-9, 6-7 in Big 12, NET: 33)

Quad Records: 4-7 vs. Q1, 1-1 vs. Q2, 5-1 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. West Virginia, Loss @ Houston, Win vs. Kansas State

The Longhorns spent the first 10 weeks of the season in the AP poll, finally falling out after a road loss to a bad West Virginia team on Jan. 13. That game kicked off a 4-6 stretch that has dropped them from comfortably in the tournament field to squarely on the bubble. After losing to Iowa State and Houston earlier this month, they have a chance to make a statement on the road against Kansas on Saturday

Stock: Down

Safely in the Projected Field (3): UConn, Marquette, Creighton

Butler Bulldogs (15-11, 7-9 in Big East, NET: 58)

Quad Records: 4-10 vs Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2, 2-0 vs. Q3, 6-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss vs. Marquette, Loss vs. Creighton, Loss @ Villanova

Butler was still projected for a No. 10 seed in the latest Bracket Matrix heading into Tuesday night. However, after a 5-1 stretch that helped push them up the seeding lines, they have dropped three straight following a 10-point loss to Villanova. Now it's all about regaining momentum for a stretch run that features a huge matchup with fellow bubble hopeful Seton Hall (Feb. 24) that could be a must-win.

Stock: Down

Providence Friars (17-9, 8-7 in Big East, NET: 60)

Quad Records: 4-6 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2, 0-0 vs. Q3, 10-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss @ Butler, Win vs. St. John's, Win vs. DePaul

The Friars were briefly ranked thanks to a 11-2 start to the season that included wins over Marquette and Butler to open the conference slate, but that was followed by a four-game losing streak that has left them on the bubble. They still have to face Marquette on the road and UConn at home over their final five games.

Stock: Holding

Seton Hall Pirates (17-9, 10-5 in Big East, NET: 63)

Quad Records: 5-5 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2, 2-2 vs. Q3, 8-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss @ Villanova, Win vs. Xavier, Win @ St. John's

The Pirates looked like a tournament lock in mid-January with a 13-5 record and a resume that included UConn and Marquette, but a 4-4 record in their last eight games with zero wins against projected tournament teams during that stretch has hurt their case. They also have a pair of Quad 3 losses on their resume. Their next four games—vs. Butler, @ Creighton, @ UConn and vs. Villanova—will make or break their season.

Stock: Holding

Villanova Wildcats (15-11, 8-7 in Big East, NET: 35)

Quad Records: 3-6 vs. Q1, 6-2 vs. Q2, 2-3 vs. Q3, 4-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Seton Hall, Win @ Georgetown, Win vs. Butler

A strong NET ranking and a 4-1 record in their last five games has helped the Wildcats hang around in the bubble picture after they looked cooked following a five-game losing streak that dropped them to 11-10 at the time. The next few weeks are going to be grueling with UConn, Providence and Seton Hall on the road before the regular-season finale against Creighton at home.

Stock: Up

Safely in the Projected Field (5): Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Northwestern

Nebraska Cornhuskers (18-8, 8-7 in Big Ten, NET: 48)

Quad Records: 3-6 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2, 5-0 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss @ Northwestern, Win vs. Michigan, Win vs. Penn State

The Cornhuskers have come a long way since finishing 7-25 overall and 2-18 in Big Ten play during their first season under Fred Hoiberg during the 2019-20 campaign. Can they secure their first NCAA tournament berth since 2014 and just their third selection in the last 30 years? They have not won a game on the road since Dec. 17, and three of their final five games are away from Pinnacle Bank Arena, so it's make-or-break time.

Stock: Holding

Safely in the Projected Field (4): San Diego State, Utah State, Colorado State, New Mexico

Boise State Broncos (16-8, 9-4 in Mountain West, NET: 42)

Quad Records: 5-5 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2, 3-1 vs. Q3, 6-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss @ Utah State, Win vs. Fresno State, Win vs. San Jose State

The Broncos have beaten San Diego State, Colorado State, New Mexico and Nevada one time each, and they also have a Quad 1 victory over Saint Mary's from back in December, so there is a strong foundation here. However, a 4-3 record in their last seven games has dropped them to the bubble. Road games against Wyoming (NET: 161) and Air Force (NET: 263) are must-win before they close out the season with New Mexico, Nevada and San Diego State on the road, so there is still a lot of work to be done.

Stock: Down

Nevada Wolf Pack (20-6, 8-5 in Mountain West, NET: 43)

Quad Records: 5-4 vs. Q1, 1-1 vs. Q2, 5-1 vs. Q3, 9-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss vs. New Mexico, Win @ UNLV, Win vs. Wyoming

The Wolf Pack scored a huge win against San Diego State on Feb. 9 and appear to be on the right side of the bubble once again after a 1-4 stretch of games at the end of January put them in a precarious position. If they can split their two remaining road games against Colorado State and Boise State and win the other three home contests against non-contenders they should be in good shape.

Stock: Up

Safely in the Projected Field (2): Arizona, Washington State

Colorado Buffaloes (17-9, 8-7 in Pac-12, NET: 41)

Quad Records: 1-5 vs. Q1, 6-4 vs. Q2, 3-0 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss vs. Arizona, Loss @ UCLA, Win @ USC

The Buffaloes are hanging on by a thread with a 2-4 record in their last six games, and they narrowly avoided a fifth loss last time out with a double-overtime victory over USC on the road. They face off against Utah in a clash of bubble teams on Saturday, and a loss could knock Colorado off the bubble entirely.

Stock: Down

Utah Utes (16-10, 7-8 in Pac-12, NET: 49)

Quad Records: 3-5 vs. Q1, 5-4 vs. Q2, 3-1 vs. Q3, 5-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss vs. Arizona State, Loss @ USC, Win @ UCLA

The Utes could have given their resume a major boost if they had pulled out a triple-overtime thriller against Arizona on Feb. 8 that ended in a 105-99 loss. They have Quad 1 wins over BYU, Saint Mary's and Wake Forest from non-conference play, and with no remaining games against projected tournament teams, that will need to prop up their resume. Any loss the rest of the way could knock them off the bubble.

Stock: Down

Safely in the Projected Field (6): Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, South Carolina, Florida

Mississippi State Bulldogs (17-8, 6-6 in SEC, NET: 38)

Quad Records: 3-6 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2, 6-1 vs. Q3, 5-1 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Georgia, Win @ Missouri, Win vs. Arkansas

The Bulldogs beat Tennessee (Jan. 10) and Auburn (Jan. 27) when they were ranked inside the Top 10 in the AP poll, but a 3-6 start to conference play overall put them in a precarious situation heading into February. They have now rattled off three straight wins, and up next is an important bubble matchup against Ole Miss on Wednesday.

Stock: Up

Ole Miss Rebels (19-6, 6-6 in SEC, NET: 65)

Quad Records: 3-5 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2, 7-0 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss @ South Carolina, Loss @ Kentucky, Win vs. Missouri

A 79-76 victory over Missouri on Saturday snapped a three-game losing streak for the Rebels, all of which came against ranked opponents. If they can navigate an upcoming stretch of games against Mississippi State, South Carolina and Alabama with at least a couple wins, they will be in a good spot entering March.

Stock: Down

Texas A&M Aggies (15-11, 6-7 in SEC, NET: 45)

Quad Records: 6-5 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2, 2-5 vs. Q3, 5-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss @ Vanderbilt, Loss @ Alabama, Loss vs. Arkansas

After suffering a terrible loss against Vanderbilt (NET: 221) and a blowout against Alabama (100-75) last week, the Aggies are still trending down after losing to Arkansas (NET: 136) on Tuesday. Their six Quad 1 wins are difficult to overlook, and that resume is headlined by victories over Tennessee and Iowa State, but they can't afford any more bad losses with five Quad 3 defeats already on the resume.

Stock: Down

Safely in the Projected Field (3): Dayton, Saint Mary's, Florida Atlantic

Drake Bulldogs (21-5, 13-3 in Missouri Valley, NET: 44)

Quad Records: 2-1 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2, 7-3 vs. Q3, 9-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win @ Bradley, Win @ Evansville, Win vs. Murray State

Just once in the last seven years has the Missouri Valley been a two-bid league, and both Drake and Indiana State reside on the bubble. The Bulldogs are 6-1 in their last seven games, with their only loss during that stretch coming against Indiana State who they split the season series against. A neutral-site win against Nevada and road win over Bradley also give them a pair of Quad 1 wins.

Stock: Up

Gonzaga Bulldogs (19-6, 10-2 in WCC, NET: 23)

Quad Records: 1-5 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2, 5-0 vs. Q3, 11-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win @ Kentucky, Win @ Loyola-Marymount, Win vs. Pacific

This is not the same Gonzaga team we've seen in recent years, and they are in danger of missing the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1998. They have just one Quad 1 win, which came earlier this month against Kentucky. If they win out and lose to Saint Mary's in the WCC tournament they should be on the right side of the bubble, but they can't afford another loss like the one they suffered against Santa Clara (NET: 106) back on Jan. 11.

Stock: Up

Grand Canyon Antelopes (23-2, 14-1 in WAC, NET: 46)

Quad Records: 1-0 vs. Q1, 2-2 vs. Q2, 7-0 vs. Q3, 13-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Southern Utah, Win vs. Utah Tech, Win vs. Cal Baptist

The WAC has not received an at-large bid since 2010 when Utah State received a No. 12 seed, and the Antelopes can't afford a second conference loss after dropping on the road against Seattle back on Jan. 20. A road game against Tarleton State (11-3 in WAC, NET: 149) on Thursday represents their toughest remaining test.

Stock: Holding

Indiana State Sycamores (21-5, 13-3 in Missouri Valley, NET: 31)

Quad Records: 1-3 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2, 8-0 vs. Q3, 9-1 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win @ Missouri State, Loss vs. Illinois State, Loss @ Southern Illinois

The Sycamores won nine straight and made their first appearance in the AP poll since 1979 before stumbling last week with back-to-back losses against Illinois State (NET: 179) and Southern Illinois (NET: 109). That leaves them with an uphill battle to earn an at-large bid, but they still have a strong NET ranking.

Stock: Down

The following teams did not earn a spot in this round of Bubble Watch, but they could still climb their way back onto the bubble and into the NCAA tournament picture before the regular season comes to a close:

• James Madison Dukes
• Memphis Tigers
• Princeton Tigers
• SMU Mustangs
• South Florida Bulls
• St. John's Red Storm
• Virginia Tech Hokies

At the same time, these teams might also be one more questionable loss from falling out of the conversation entirely.

These eight teams were listed among the "Safely in the Projected Field" group, but are the most likely to slip to the bubble if things go south in the coming days:

• Florida Gators
• Florida Atlantic Owls
• Michigan State Spartans
• New Mexico Lobos
• Northwestern Wildcats
  
• Oklahoma Sooners
• TCU Horned Frogs
• Washington State Cougars
  

These teams have a bit more wiggle room than those currently residing on the bubble, but they haven't locked up their ticket to March Madness by any means.