2024 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68

With just 20 days remaining until Selection Sunday, time is officially running out on teams trying to play their way into the 2024 men's NCAA tournament.

Some teams like Wake Forest and Washington State are making the most of these final few weeks of the regular season, while a whole lot of teams on the bubble are repeatedly squandering big opportunities and/or suffering bad losses.

On that bubble topic, it's worth noting up front that with conference records determining the projected automatic bids from each league, there are a couple of bid thieves shrinking the at-large field. Both Dayton (A-10) and Florida Atlantic (AAC) are projected tournament teams, but Richmond and South Florida are currently the auto bids for those leagues—neither of whom has a great case for an at-large bid.

If we were to assume that Dayton and FAU both win their conference tournaments, that would open up two more spots in the field for bubble teams. (Villanova and Texas A&M, as things currently stand in our eyes.) But there is almost always at least one bid thief during championship week, so having a couple in the mix arguably paints a better picture of what the bubble actually looks like.

You'll see a lot of NET, RES and QUAL in the forthcoming analysis. NET is the NCAA Evaluation Tool, the backbone of the Quads data and the primary sorting metric the selection committee uses to select and seed the field. RES is the average ranking of the two resume metrics (KPI and SOR) and is more or less a measure of who you beat, regardless of scoring margin. QUAL is the average ranking of the two predictive metrics (BPI and KenPom) and is rooted in scoring margin and adjusted efficiencies. All three play a key role in determining the projected field.

With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, we have a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.

EAST REGION (BOSTON)

Brooklyn, NY
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 16 Norfolk State/Grambling State
No. 8 TCU vs. No. 9 Nebraska

Brooklyn, NY
No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 13 Akron
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Richmond

Pittsburgh, PA
No. 3 Duke vs. No. 14 Oakland
No. 6 Dayton vs. No. 11 Indiana State

Omaha, NE
No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 15 Colgate
No. 7 Utah State vs. No. 10 Mississippi State

MIDWEST REGION (DETROIT)

Indianapolis, IN
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Quinnipiac
No. 8 Boise State vs. No. 9 Texas

Spokane, WA
No. 4 San Diego State vs. No. 13 Vermont
No. 5 Florida vs. No. 12 Samford

Omaha, NE
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 Louisiana Tech
No. 6 Washington State vs. No. 11 Virginia/Gonzaga

Charlotte, NC
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 High Point
No. 7 Oklahoma vs. No. 10 Wake Forest

SOUTH REGION (DALLAS)

Memphis, TN
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 South Dakota State
No. 8 Colorado State vs. No. 9 Northwestern

Spokane, WA
No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 13 Appalachian State
No. 5 Clemson vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon

Memphis, TN
No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 14 Charleston
No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 Providence/New Mexico

Indianapolis, IN
No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 15 Morehead State
No. 7 South Carolina vs. No. 10 Florida Atlantic

WEST REGION (LOS ANGELES)

Charlotte, NC
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 16 Eastern Kentucky/Merrimack
No. 8 Nevada vs. No. 9 Michigan State

Pittsburgh, PA
No. 4 Creighton vs. No. 13 South Florida
No. 5 Kentucky vs. No. 12 McNeese State

Salt Lake City, UT
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 UC Irvine
No. 6 Saint Mary's vs. No. 11 Princeton

Salt Lake City, UT
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Eastern Washington
No. 7 BYU vs. No. 10 Seton Hall

1. Purdue Boilermakers (24-3, NET: 2, RES: 1.0, QUAL: 2.0)

2. Houston Cougars (24-3, NET: 1, RES: 2.0, QUAL: 1.0)

3. Connecticut Huskies (25-3, NET: 4, RES: 4.5, QUAL: 3.5)

4. North Carolina Tar Heels (21-6, NET: 9, RES: 4.0, QUAL: 9.5)

5. Kansas Jayhawks (20-6, NET: 13, RES: 5.5, QUAL: 15.0)

6. Arizona Wildcats (21-6, NET: 3, RES: 7.0, QUAL: 3.5)

7. Tennessee Volunteers (21-6, NET: 5, RES: 5.0, QUAL: 5.5)

Just nine days removed from the selection committee saying it was unanimous on the order of Nos. 1-4 on the overall seed list, welcome back to the land of anarchy and no separation whatsoever.

It's undeniable that Purdue, Houston and Connecticut are the top three overall seeds, but you could argue them appearing in any possible order.

We still have Purdue up top because of its 6-0 record in Q1A games, but last Sunday's loss to Ohio State definitely brought the Boilermakers back to the pack a bit. Meanwhile, Houston has substantially enhanced its resume since the Top 16 reveal with wins over Iowa State, Texas and Baylor. If all three were to go undefeated the rest of the way, it would probably go Houston-Purdue-UConn, but we'll see what happens.

Beyond those clear No. 1 seeds, Arizona's second loss to Washington State has re-paved the way for a mighty difficult call on the last No. 1 seed.

Because North Carolina was No. 5 in the Top 16 reveal and has since added wins by double digits over Virginia Tech and Virginia, the Tar Heels kind of have to move back up to No. 4. The committee says it values true road wins, and UNC is up to 7-2 in that category. Of note, the only other team on our top 10 seed lines with fewer than three road losses is Saint Mary's (8-0). That feels like a significant tie-breaker in the Heels' favor.

Had we not gotten the reveal, though, Kansas would probably get that No. 4 spot by virtue of its 5-3 record vs. Q1A—compared to UNC's 3-2 record. The Jayhawks also only have one loss outside of Q1, though that was a Q3 misstep at West Virginia, and the losses at Kansas State and UCF aren't exactly that forgivable.

Kansas does slide ahead of Arizona, though. The Wildcats have great metrics, but just a 4-4 record against the projected field, plus bad losses to Oregon State and Stanford. The home loss to Wazzu didn't eliminate Arizona from the No. 1 seed conversation, but it sure made it tougher.

And don't overlook Tennessee in this mix. The sub-.500 Q1 record (4-5) and head-to-head losses to UNC and Kansas hurt the Vols' case, but they have stellar metrics, have yet to suffer anything close to a bad loss and have major potential resume builders still to come against Auburn, Alabama and Kentucky prior to the SEC tournament. If they go 4-0 down the stretch, it's hard to not like their chances at a No. 1 seed.

Fifth-to-Last In: Seton Hall Pirates (18-9, NET: 62.0, RES: 43.0, QUAL: 61.5)—Could punch ticket with a win over Creighton or UConn.

Fourth-to-Last In: Providence Friars (18-9, NET: 55, RES: 46.5, QUAL: 47.5)—Solid win at Xavier; home rematch with Villanova looms large.

Third-to-Last In: New Mexico Lobos (20-7, NET: 26, RES: 41.5, QUAL: 44.0)—I mean, maybe don't lose home games to Air Force?

Second-to-Last In: Gonzaga Bulldogs (21-6, NET: 21, RES: 55.0, QUAL: 20.0)—Treading water with great predictive metrics; Saint Mary's showdown Saturday.

Last Team In: Virginia Cavaliers (20-8, NET: 48, RES: 36.5, QUAL: 57.5)—UVA will finally show us whether the 'eye test' matters.

****CUT LINE****

First Team Out: Villanova Wildcats (15-12, NET: 39, RES: 59.0, QUAL: 32.0)—Getting very close again, but likely needs a 3-1 finish.

Second Team Out: Texas A&M Aggies (15-12, NET: 58, RES: 64.0, QUAL: 48.0)—Several great wins, but too many bad (and overall) losses.

Third Team Out: Butler Bulldogs (15-12, NET: 63, RES: 59.0, QUAL: 65.5)—Still hanging around, but too many losses at this point.

Fourth Team Out: James Madison Dukes (25-3, NET: 50, RES: 68.0, QUAL: 52.0)—Starting to stand out with other mid-majors dropping like flies.

Fifth Team Out: Colorado Buffaloes (18-9, NET: 35, RES: 49.0, QUAL: 41.0)—No marquee wins, but metrics are quietly looking strong again.

5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 4. North Carolina, 12. Duke, 19. Clemson, 37. Wake Forest, 44. Virginia

Also Considered: Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Biggest Change: Wake Forest finally gets a marquee win

Moments before the biggest court-storm controversy ever, Wake Forest put the finishing touches on the high-quality victory that had been lacking from its resume all season long.

The predictive metrics have been painting the Demon Deacons as a tournament-caliber team for quite some time. They were in the 80s on KenPom in late November, but had been pretty steadily climbing ever since, spending the past few weeks comfortably in the 20s. But all they had to show for it were home wins over Florida, Virginia and Virginia Tech, which simply didn't amount to much.

As a result, just about everyone in the bracketology community had Wake Forest either just barely in or within the first six spots or so of the wrong side of the bubble.

Thanks to Hunter Sallis' nearly perfect day—11-for-13 for 29 points—they now have that feather in their cap in the form of a win over Duke and now have an almost unimpeachable case for a bid.

Don't go counting those chickens before they hatch, though. Wake Forest still has a game at Notre Dame this Tuesday and a home game against Georgia Tech next Tuesday. A loss in either of those could be damaging.

But barring a disastrous finish, this win over the Blue Devils probably sealed the deal for Wake Forest, as it has for many a questionable bubble team in the past.

Beating Duke is what got NC State in last year. It played a big part in Miami making the cut in 2022, and it was perhaps most infamously the biggest reason Syracuse earned a spot in the field in 2016. So if it comes down to Selection Sunday and the Demon Deacons feel like they're right on the bubble, go ahead and give them a little extra credit for beating Duke. The selection committee always does.

9 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 2. Houston, 5. Kansas, 10. Iowa State, 11. Baylor, 24. Texas Tech, 25. BYU, 27. Oklahoma, 29. TCU, 33. Texas

Also Considered: Cincinnati, Kansas State, UCF

Biggest Change: Sayonara, Cincinnati

Cincinnati was always going to be a difficult inclusion if it landed anywhere close to the cut line, because the Bearcats did absolutely nothing in nonconference play.

On Jan. 1, Cincinnati was 11-2 and ranked in the top 40 on KenPom, but its best win was...either the home game against Georgia Tech or the home game against Eastern Washington?

Considering they drew two games against West Virginia, two games against UCF and home games against Kansas State and Oklahoma State, it was likely that even 9-9 in Big 12 play might not be enough for a bid.

The Bearcats did immediately make things interesting by opening Big 12 play with a road win over then No. 2 in the NET BYU. However, they have gone 4-9 since then, punctuated with the home loss to Oklahoma State and blowout loss at TCU this past week.

It would be premature to completely bury Cincinnati, as it does still have games remaining at Houston this Tuesday and at Oklahoma next Tuesday. But if they don't beat the Cougars, stick a fork in 'em.

Conversely, that convincing win over Cincinnati has TCU sitting pretty for a bid. The Horned Frogs also entered Big 12 play at 11-2 and ranked top 40 on KenPom with jack squat in the way of quality wins, but they've gone 8-6 in conference play, including a critical home win over Houston.

If TCU loses to both Baylor and BYU this week, things could get a little dicey again. But Jameer Nelson Jr. and Co. should be able to seal the deal with wins over West Virginia and UCF after that.

5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 3. Connecticut, 8. Marquette, 13. Creighton, 40. Seton Hall, 41. Providence

Also Considered: Villanova, Butler, St. John's, Xavier

Biggest Change: Butler's Bubbly Blunders

Two weeks ago, Butler was in great shape for a bid.

The Bulldogs were 16-8 with incredible road wins over Creighton and Marquette, plus other solid victories over Boise State, Texas Tech, Providence and Villanova. Better yet, the closest thing they had to a bad loss was a home game against Seton Hall, which wasn't even much of an eyesore.

Unfortunately, all they have done since then is lose.

And the losses this past week against Villanova and Seton Hall were doubly damaging, as it directly helped both of those bubble teams move ahead of Butler.

Here's the really frustrating part if you're a Butler fan: Aside from the number of losses, everything in that above paragraph is still true. Those two road wins continue to look great. They have five, maybe six wins over the projected field, depending on whether you have Villanova in or out. And none of the four losses they recently suffered—vs. Marquette, vs. Creighton, at Villanova, at Seton Hall—was a bad resume loss; all solidly Q1 games.

It's simply becoming a volume problem at this point.

Butler is now just 9-12 vs. Q1-Q3, and unless I'm mistaken, there has not yet been an at-large team in the NET era (which dates back to 2019) that was more than one game below .500 against the top three Quads.

Yes, Butler played one of the toughest schedules in the country and, yes, we've seen 15-loss teams get at-large bids before—Florida in 2019; Alabama in 2018; Vanderbilt in 2017. That's why I do still believe Butler will get into the dance if it wins its remaining three regular-season games (vs. St. John's, at DePaul, vs. Xavier) and avoids a bad loss in its first game of the Big East tournament.

For now, though, the Bulldogs fall out of the field and will need to win their way back in.

2 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Purdue, 16. Illinois, 17. Wisconsin, 34. Northwestern, 35. Nebraska, 36. Michigan State

Also Considered: Iowa, Ohio State

Biggest Change: Nebraska finally wins another road game

After starting 0-7 on the road in Big Ten play—including less-than-great losses at Minnesota, Rutgers, Iowa and Maryland—Nebraska finally got a conference W outside of Lincoln.

It wasn't a particularly noteworthy win over Indiana, which is every bit as bad as Michigan at this point. And the Cornhuskers did mess around and try to give away a 22-point second-half lead.

But, by golly, they won a road game.

Now, can they do it again?

Winning at Indiana and subsequently winning the home game against Minnesota was, well, better than losing either of those games. Neither individually does much of anything to enhance Nebraska's case for a bid, but it's something of a bizarro Butler situation. Instead of going from 16-8 to 16-12 with four understandable losses and dropping out of the field, Nebraska has gone from 16-8 to 20-8 with four unnoteworthy wins and moves a bit more comfortably into the field.

But with three more unnoteworthy games remaining—at Ohio State, vs. Rutgers, at Michigan—it's going to take another road win to get the job done.

Because if Nebraska loses those games against Ohio State and Michigan, say goodbye to the progress made over the past two-plus weeks. It goes right back to major questions of "why can't you win away from home?" and "why did you put together one of the worst nonconference schedules in the country?

Those home wins over Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Northwestern look great, but the committee always puts an emphasis on road wins and quality nonconference wins. So even though Nebraska is in better shape than a week ago, it could still fumble this away with a 1-2 finish.

6 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 15. San Diego State, 28. Utah State, 30. Colorado State, 31. Boise State, 32. Nevada, 42. New Mexico

Also Considered: N/A

Biggest Change: Ruh Roh Rams

Thanks in very large part to the neutral-site victory over Creighton on Thanksgiving, Colorado State remains in solid shape for an at-large bid.

But after back-to-back losses at New Mexico and UNLV this week, it might be about time to start hammering the Rams for their road woes like we have been hammering Nebraska and Northwestern for a while now.

It's because of the neutral wins over Creighton, Washington and Boston College that it hasn't really come up, but did you know CSU's best true road win came against NET No. 183 Northern Colorado?

Yikes.

And if the Rams' road woes continue in the form of a season-ending loss at Air Force, that would not be good.

Before worrying about that game, however, they have home games against Nevada and Wyoming this week. Win both of those, and Isaiah Stevens and Co. should be dancing, regardless of what happens against Air Force.

They have left the door open for a possible disastrous finish, though.

After handing Colorado State its first loss of the week and temporarily moving itself back into better shape for a bid, New Mexico turned around and suffered a horrendous, Q4 home loss to Air Force on Saturday night.

Without question, that two-game stretch was a net negative for the Lobos, who we had projected for a low No. 9 seed one week ago. They are now right back to the bubble, holding on for dear life with two difficult road games remaining against Boise State and Utah State, bookending a home game against Fresno State.

If they win that home game but lose both road games, say hello to the team that will be part of every bubble conversation for the ensuing eight days.

2 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 6. Arizona, 23. Washington State

Also Considered: Colorado, Utah

Biggest Change: Washington State's weird split in Arizona

Washington State has not been to the NCAA tournament since 2008, but it entered this week's road trip through Arizona looking good for a single-digit seed. The Cougars already had a home victory over Arizona among their four Quad 1 wins and basically just needed to avoid a complete collapse in order to put an end to that dancing drought.

Instead, they finished off the season sweep of the Wildcats to erase almost all doubt.

Freshman phenom Myles Rice didn't even have a good game in the slightest, but his supporting cast shouldered the load in a barn-burner that was played entirely in an 11-point window. (Washington State never led by more than seven; Arizona's largest lead was four.)

Jaylen Wells was the hero with a season-high 27 points, including the gigantic four-point play in the final minute. Isaac Jones was also massive with 16 points and a crucial block near the end of regulation.

And after that second win over an Arizona squad that is still in the mix for a possible No. 1 seed, Washington State entered the weekend as a projected No. 5 seed.

As long as the Cougars didn't lose every remaining game—at Arizona State, vs. USC, vs. UCLA, vs. Washington and their Pac-12 tournament opener—they could start packing for that first round of the NCAA tournament.

But they suffered a classic hangover loss against the Sun Devils on Saturday night and will need to win at least one of these upcoming games in Pullman before we can fully lock them in.

Still, the Cougars are in better shape than they were a week ago following one of the biggest regular-season wins in program history.

7 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 7. Tennessee, 9. Alabama, 14. Auburn, 18. Kentucky, 20. Florida, 26. South Carolina, 39. Mississippi State

Also Considered: Texas A&M, Ole Miss

Biggest Change: Mississippi State makes it five in a row

Need to start this section by noting that Mississippi State is still nowhere near a lock. The Bulldogs have four challenging games remaining against Kentucky, Auburn, Texas A&M and South Carolina, which could drop them to 19-12 overall. And while they do have fantastic-looking home wins over Tennessee and Auburn, they also have brutal losses to Southern and Georgia Tech.

Win any of those four games, however, and Mississippi State probably punches its ticket to the dance for a second consecutive year, thanks to the continuation of its winning streak.

Not only did the Bulldogs beat both Ole Miss (home) and LSU (road) this past week, but they did so in pretty convincing fashion, running away from both of those bubble-y teams in the second half.

Big man Tolu Smith—who notably missed the first 12 games of the season, including the aforementioned bad losses—was huge in both games, going for a combined 43 points and 15 rebounds. And freshman Josh Hubbard was lights out against LSU, going for a career-high 32 in that 20-point victory.

None of the wins during this five-game streak—which started with Georgia, Missouri and Arkansas—was individually all that noteworthy. But with so many bubble teams playing their way out of the conversation, simply winning games has helped bump the Bulldogs up from "Last Team In" three weeks ago to a relatively solid No. 10 seed.

Again, though, we're going to need to see at least one more win before putting a seal on this ticket.

28 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 21. Saint Mary's, 22. Dayton, 38. Florida Atlantic, 43. Gonzaga, 45. Indiana State, 46. Princeton, 47. Grand Canyon, 48. Richmond, 49. McNeese State, 50. Samford, 51. South Florida, 52. Appalachian State, 53. Akron, 54. Vermont, 55. UC Irvine, 56. Louisiana Tech, 57. Oakland, 58. College of Charleston, 59. High Point, 60. Morehead State, 61. Colgate, 62. Eastern Washington, 63. Quinnipiac, 64. South Dakota State, 65. Eastern Kentucky, 66. Merrimack, 67. Norfolk State, 68. Grambling State

Also Considered: James Madison, Drake, Memphis, SMU

Biggest Change: Not So Grand Canyon, and Adios Drake

It was, yet again, not a banner week for the mid-majors with at-large aspirations.

The two WCC teams (Saint Mary's and Gonzaga) held serve against overmatched foes, but that was it.

Florida Atlantic could have just about punched its ticket with a road win over Memphis Sunday afternoon, but the Owls were unable to get it done and are creeping dangerously close to the bubble.

Meanwhile, Dayton took yet another road loss, this time at the hands of George Mason. The Flyers are still pretty safely in the field, but long gone are the "might be a No. 2 seed if they run the table" dreams from a month ago. Dayton has slipped down into the No. 6-7 seed range and would be strongly advised not to tumble any closer to the bubble, lest the committee find a reason to more adamantly discuss this team's complete lack of wins against the projected field.

Elsewhere, Drake's case for an at-large bid very likely vanished in a 14-point loss at Northern Iowa over the weekend. The Bulldogs have respectable metrics and some nice wins, but nothing elite to make up for the fact that they now have five losses to teams outside the NET Top 100. Even with two more wins over Bradley and a possible "quality loss" to Indiana State in the MVC title game, it's questionable at best at this point.

Worst of all, though, was Grand Canyon losing back-to-back games to Tarleton State and Abilene Christian. Prior to that Q3 and Q4 rough patch, the 'Lopes were knocking on the door of a potential No. 9 seed, but they have now fully fallen to "Auto Bid or Bust" territory. If they do get that auto bid, though, don't go forgetting about this team. They may have blown their chance for an at-large bid, but they would still be a terrifying No. 12 seed.