Buying or Selling MLB's Latest 2024 Spring Training Camp Buzz

With spring training now in full swing, things are very much in "happening" mode in Major League Baseball.

There's still the matter of what to make of things, though, and there's no better way to arrive at answers than by playing one of our favorite games: Buy or Sell?

There are 10 spring training happenings on the docket here, and the collection adheres to that old notion about variety being the spice of life. Contained within are actual developments and news, but also rumors and even a few musings about the future.

As far as what went into the conclusion to buy or sell each item, it wasn't about assessing whether they're real. Of course they're real. The real question is whether what's being hinted at is worth believing in.

In any case, let's get to it.

Spencer Strider has technically been a three-pitch pitcher, but barely. He's thrown his changeup only 6.2 percent of the time, otherwise relying on his fastball and slider.

It now seems as if Strider is ready to make a relic of his changeup. He spent the winter crafting a curveball to pair with his fastball-slider combo, and it factored into a spring debut in which he whiffed four Tampa Bay Rays hitters in two innings on Saturday.

"That's a real curveball too," Atlanta manager Brian Snitker said afterward. "I had a hard time telling the difference between [the curve and slider] a couple times. That was kind of nice for him to be able to throw it against another team, too."

Because he racked up an MLB-high 483 strikeouts over the last two seasons, whether Strider even needs a third pitch is debatable. It would be a different story if the righty had a platoon split, but lefty batters (.352) had a lower slugging percentage against him than righty batters (.358) last year.

But even if the pitch itself doesn't do much damage, Strider might still benefit from featuring his new curve more often than he featured his changeup. It could help keep batters from sitting on his fastball, and that's in his interest after they upped their average against it to .256 in 2023 from .201 the year before.

Verdict: Buy

Elsewhere on the topic of flame-throwing righties who brought new toys to camp, Cincinnati Reds righty Hunter Greene now has both a curveball and a split-finger fastball.

Both were on display in his spring debut against the Los Angeles Angels on Sunday, and it was a good one. Strikeouts accounted for four of the five outs Greene recorded. He was especially enthusiastic about his new splitter, calling it "fantastic."

Like Strider, Greene was overwhelmingly a fastball-slider guy in 2022 and 2023, leaning on those two pitches for about 95 percent of his offerings. Unlike Strider, however, he hasn't been able to get by as a two-pitch pitcher. Despite averaging a league-best 98.7 mph on his fastball, he still only posted a 4.62 ERA across the last two seasons.

Yet Greene doesn't merely need his new pitches to take attention away from his fastball and slider. He needs them to get hitters to expand the strike zone, something he's thus far struggled with as a big leaguer. To wit, his chase rate in 2023 was only in the 58th percentile.

The curve and splitter could be huge in this regard, but it's hard to take that for granted until more data on the two pitches is available. Rather than solutions, let's call them what they are: works in progress.

Verdict: Sell

Though Greene's ERA over the last two seasons is nothing to boast of, it's an object of envy relative to Lucas Giolito and his 4.89 ERA.

Getting back to the guy he was between 2019 and 2021—i.e., one who earned Cy Young Award votes annually—is Giolito's goal for his debut season with the Boston Red Sox. And in addition to improved fastball velocity, a rejuvenated slider could help him achieve it.

"Little adjustment with the slider," Giolito said. "Coming into camp, the whole pitching team, they were showing me some data about it, how it was getting a little bit too slow, a little bit too curveball-ish, so we switched up the grip."

Giolito also spoke of throwing his slider in the "mid-to-high 80s," which would mean reversing a decline in its average velocity that took it from 85.7 mph in 2021 to just 84.0 mph in 2023. Uncoincidentally, its run value plummeted from plus-nine to minus-eight.

Still, color me skeptical. Even if a better fastball and slider prove helpful, the real question is whether Giolito can get his changeup back online. Its run value was at plus-11 in 2019 and 2021, but has sunk to minus-six over the last two seasons. Unless he also fixes that, he's likely only going to go so far.

Verdict: Sell

The introduction of the pitch timer in 2023 resulted in 24 minutes getting lopped off the average game time, but that apparently wasn't fast enough for Rob Manfred.

Among the rule changes that the MLB commissioner announced in December was a tweak to the timer. It will still be 15 seconds with the bases empty, but the time pitchers have to throw the ball with runners on base has been reduced from 20 to 18 seconds.

It might seem insignificant, but MLB Players Association executive director Tony Clark is already raising the alarm about a heightened potential for injuries. And he's not alone.

"A pitcher might feel something, get a little bit tight during a pitch, and then might need a few seconds to walk around and kind of let that tightness dissipate. Now you can't do that. It's different," Rich Hill told ESPN's Buster Olney. "Increased injuries is a big concern."

It's not an unreasonable concern, to be sure, but Spotrac's data from last year sends mixed signals. There was a 5 percent increase in the number of days pitchers spent on the injured list from 2022 to 2023, yet they also accounted for fewer total IL stints.

And as fair as it is to have suspicions, the timer is but one variable amid a sea of variables when it comes to pitching injuries. A firm link between it and injury risk may eventually be established, but let's wait until that moment actually comes before raising a panic.

Verdict: Sell

Switching now to the world of hitters, the two batsmen who've made the biggest impression so far this spring are both gigantic outfielders who have yet to log a single MLB at-bat.

For the Washington Nationals, there's 6'6", 234-pounder James Wood. He homered in his spring debut against the Houston Astros on Saturday and then again opposite the Miami Marlins on Sunday.

For naysaying purposes, I'm obligated to point out that Wood, 21, collected these long balls off Misael Tamarez and Devin Smeltzer. The former had a 5.08 ERA at Triple-A in 2023, while the latter posted a 6.45 ERA in nine appearances for Miami.

The other reason to pump the brakes on the Wood hype train is that he'll likely always be prone to strikeouts. He whiffed 33.7 percent of the time at Double-A last year. And with his frame, the tradeoff for massive power is always going to be an equally massive strike zone.

Yet that power is just one reason Wood is considered an elite prospect, including as MLB's No. 7 talent by B/R's Joel Reuter. He's also a plus runner with a plus arm who gets strong marks for his discipline.

The tools showed as Wood posted an .874 OPS with 26 homers and 18 stolen bases last year, and Aaron Judge is a tall hitter who can vouch for the difference discipline can make in overcoming a big zone. Wood can and should look to him for inspiration.

Verdict: Buy

As to the other humongous outfielder attracting eyeballs this spring, here's what you need to know about what's on Spencer Jones' statline: 5-for-5 with a home run and four each for runs scored and batted in.

And that one homer? It was a doozy that went an estimated 470 feet amid the New York Yankees' tilt against the Detroit Tigers on Saturday.

Listed at 6'6", 235 pounds, Jones naturally has the Yankees feeling hyped. "Jaw-dropping" was how Anthony Volpe described that 470-foot blast, while manager Aaron Boone also sees Jones as a "really good defender in center field."

Like with Wood, however, it bears noting that Jones' homer came off Mason Englert, who had a 5.46 ERA for Detroit last year. The 22-year-old likewise comes with a strikeout red flag that's likely to always be present.

There's also a general question of how high Jones' ceiling goes. He didn't crack Reuter's top 100. And even in placing him as the No. 84 prospect for the league, MLB.com noted concerns about his in-game power and his ability to handle velocity.

Of course, the veracity of Judge's tools was also questioned as he was coming up, and he's turned out just fine. That would arguably be enough to buy into the Jones hype even if he wasn't coming up in the same system, so I'm in favor of all of us indulging ourselves while the indulging is good.

Verdict: Buy

Elsewhere in the Yankee-verse, still lingering is the question of whether they have another move for a pitcher up their sleeve.

They have an offer on the table to Blake Snell, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, but signing him may not be their first choice. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that to be a trade for Chicago White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease, who was tabbed in a poll by Jayson Stark of The Athletic to be the most likely trade candidate of the spring.

That did, however, come with a caveat.

"I think it's one of those situations they're open to trading him this spring, but that doesn't mean that they do," one American League executive told Stark. "I think historically, if they're thinking about things, they know that people pay a ton for really good pitching at the deadline."

According to Nightengale, the other complication is that Chicago is insisting on getting Jones back for Cease. That was also echoed by Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, with Yankees general manager Brian Cashman saying Jones "gets asked about a lot."

If the Yankees were reluctant to trade Jones before, they're probably even more so now that he's off to a fast start this spring. It therefore could take the White Sox backing down to get a deal done, and why would they do that when there's no rush to trade Cease? He's under their control through 2025.

Verdict: Sell

At least the Yankees know they'll have Juan Soto on their side this season, but whether he'll come back for 2025 and beyond is going to be a storyline for the foreseeable future.

Soto will become a free agent at the end of the season, and from Nightengale comes word that the New York Mets "are not only expected to strongly pursue, but could be among the favorites" for the three-time All-Star in the offseason.

This doesn't necessarily mean the Mets will be the favorite to sign Soto. The Yankees are keen on winning him over to the franchise's culture. And if they do, it could be that much harder for him to say no if they ultimately make him a competitive offer.

Yet it does figure to be that much tougher for the Yankees to make a competitive offer if the Mets are also in the bidding for Soto. Whereas the Yankees have $181.8 million on their books for 2025, the Mets are only at $159.3 million.

Or, about $200 million below where they opened last season.

Soto should thus be firmly in the Mets' price range even if they prioritize retaining Pete Alonso. It also seems as if they're already planning on loading up for 2025, as nine of the 10 deals they did in free agency this offseason are for just one year.

Verdict: Buy

Returning now to the goings-on on the pitching market, Jordan Montgomery is still available and there continues to be smoke concerning a possible deal with the Red Sox.

They've been in on the lefty since the early days of the offseason, and they're clearly still interested. Red Sox manager Alex Cora confirmed on Monday that the club held a Zoom meeting with Montgomery right before spring training.

In a way, though, the Red Sox are waiting for Montgomery to come to them. Sean McAdam of MassLive indicated that they're waiting for his price to drop, with Rob Bradford of WEEI making the same point:

On one hand, this is plausible. Though MLB Trade Rumors projected a $150 million contract for Montgomery, they also had Cody Bellinger getting $264 million. He settled for less than a third of that, and he and Montgomery notably have the same agent: Scott Boras.

On the other hand, Montgomery dropping his price would presumably open more doors than just the one in Boston. It's also entirely possible that the club's desired price is lower than what other teams would be willing to pay.

After all, the Red Sox are "probably" going to have a lower payroll in 2024. They won't be able to accomplish that unless they sign Montgomery for less than $21 million per year, and it's hard to imagine that happening even now.

Verdict: Sell

Meanwhile, there's at least one team looming as a threat to beat the Red Sox to Montgomery or the Yankees to Snell: the Los Angeles Angels.

This is according to Feinsand, who reported on Sunday that the Halos "appear primed to ultimately land" one of the two ace left-handers. This isn't surprising for two reasons.

For one, the Angels have been a consistent presence in rumors about starting pitchers since last season ended. And for two, they seem to have way more payroll flexibility than Boston and New York.

As of now, there's a $42 million gap between what the Angels spent in 2023 and what they project to spend in 2024. That's more than enough room for Snell or Montgomery, either of whom would go a long way toward patching up a rotation that FanGraphs projects to be among the worst in MLB this season.

Besides, the Angels badly need some good press. Losing Shohei Ohtani to the Los Angeles Dodgers was a blow. The ongoing Anthony Rendon saga is a drag. And while they still have Mike Trout going for them, even he's feeling antsy about the state of the roster.

"There's a couple of guys out there still that can help this team [be] better," the three-time MVP said upon reporting to camp. "I'm going to keep pushing as long as I can until the season starts or until them guys sign."

Verdict: Buy

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.