2024 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68

Welcome to Championship Week for the 2024 men's college basketball season. There are conference tournament games getting underway Monday night in the Atlantic Sun, meaning the chaotic fortnight to determine who makes the NCAA tournament is about to begin.

Where do we stand heading into this closing stretch?

Well, Purdue, Houston and Connecticut are absolutely headed for No. 1 seeds, but plenty is up for debate beyond that, especially the closer you get to the bubble.

You'll see a lot of NET, RES and QUAL in the forthcoming analysis. NET is the NCAA Evaluation Tool, the backbone of the Quads data and the primary sorting metric the selection committee uses to select and seed the field. RES is the average ranking of the two resume metrics (KPI and SOR) and is more or less a measure of who you beat, regardless of scoring margin. QUAL is the average ranking of the two predictive metrics (BPI and KenPom) and is rooted in scoring margin and adjusted efficiencies. All three play a key role in determining the projected field.

With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, we have a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.

EAST REGION (BOSTON)

Brooklyn, NY
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 16 Norfolk State
No. 8 Boise State vs. No. 9 TCU

Spokane, WA
No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 13 Charleston
No. 5 South Carolina vs. No. 12 South Florida

Omaha, NE
No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 14 UC Irvine
No. 6 Utah State vs. No. 11 Grand Canyon

Charlotte, NC
No. 2 North Carolina vs. No. 15 Eastern Washington
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 10 Seton Hall

MIDWEST REGION (DETROIT)

Indianapolis, IN
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Little Rock/Central Connecticut
No. 8 Texas vs. No. 9 Mississippi State

Spokane, WA
No. 4 Creighton vs. No. 13 Vermont
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 12 Appalachian State

Pittsburgh, PA
No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 14 Louisiana Tech
No. 6 Clemson vs. No. 11 Villanova/Utah

Memphis, TN
No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 15 Colgate
No. 7 Gonzaga vs. No. 10 Florida Atlantic

SOUTH REGION (DALLAS)

Memphis, TN
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 South Dakota State
No. 8 Northwestern vs. No. 9 Oklahoma

Brooklyn, NY
No. 4 Kentucky vs. No. 13 McNeese State
No. 5 Washington State vs. No. 12 James Madison/Virginia

Pittsburgh, PA
No. 3 Duke vs. No. 14 Akron
No. 6 Wisconsin vs. No. 11 Indiana State

Indianapolis, IN
No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 15 Oakland
No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 10 Nebraska

WEST REGION (LOS ANGELES)

Charlotte, NC
No. 1 Tennessee vs. No. 16 Grambling State/Eastern Kentucky
No. 8 Texas Tech vs. No. 9 Colorado State

Salt Lake City, UT
No. 4 BYU vs. No. 13 Samford
No. 5 Auburn vs. No. 12 Richmond

Omaha, NE
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 High Point
No. 6 Saint Mary's vs. No. 11 Princeton

Salt Lake City, UT
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Quinnipiac
No. 7 Nevada vs. No. 10 Michigan State

1. Purdue Boilermakers (26-3, NET: 2, RES: 1.0, QUAL: 2.0)

2. Houston Cougars (26-3, NET: 1, RES: 2.0, QUAL: 1.0)

3. Connecticut Huskies (25-3, NET: 4, RES: 4.5, QUAL: 4.0)

4. Tennessee Volunteers (23-6, NET: 5, RES: 3.5, QUAL: 4.5)

5. North Carolina Tar Heels (23-6, NET: 10, RES: 5.5, QUAL: 11.0)

6. Arizona Wildcats (23-6, NET: 3, RES: 7.5, QUAL: 3.5)

Let's keep this section short and sweet for a change.

Purdue, Houston and Connecticut are just about stone-cold locks for the top line at this point. Maybe if Connecticut loses both of its remaining games (at Marquette, at Providence) AND immediately loses to Butler/Xavier in the Big East tournament AND Tennessee wins out (including the SEC tournament) AND North Carolina wins out (including the ACC tournament), there would be a case for the Volunteers and Tar Heels bypassing the Huskies. That's about the imperfect storm it would take for one of the top three teams to not finish in the top four.

The only real debate here is between Tennessee, North Carolina and Arizona for the final No. 1 seed.

As we'll discuss in more detail in the SEC summary, Tennessee's resume has gotten stronger in the aftermath of wins over Auburn and Alabama this week. By no means are North Carolina or Arizona out of the race, though.

If North Carolina wins at Duke this weekend to polish off a season sweep of the Blue Devils, that would be huge. If it ends up being too close to call between Tennessee and UNC, let's not forget the Tar Heels won the head-to-head game. Yes, it was a home game for the Heels, but that game might have been a key factor when the selection committee had the Vols behind the Heels in the Top 16 reveal a few weeks ago.

Arizona's metrics are great, as is its stockpile of quality wins. If there was another Top 16 reveal right now and the committee still had them at No. 4 overall in light of those facts, it'd be hard to argue. But since the reveal, Tennessee has gone undefeated with two spectacular wins, North Carolina has gone undefeated with a quartet of respectable victories, while Arizona lost to Washington State in its only game that was even close to a Q1 opportunity.

At this point, it feels like the Wildcats need to win out and probably need to get some help to secure a No. 1 seed, so they land at the bottom of a very good six pack for the time being.

Fifth-to-Last In: Michigan State Spartans (17-12, NET: 22, RES: 44.5, QUAL: 19.5)—Must split with Northwestern and Indiana to salvage a bid.

Fourth-to-Last In: Villanova Wildcats (17-12, NET: 26, RES: 52.5, QUAL: 22.5)—Stormed back into the field with road win over Providence.

Third-to-Last In: Utah Utes (18-11, NET: 46, RES: 50.0, QUAL: 46.5)—.500 record in a woeful Pac-12, but respectable overall resume.

Second-to-Last In: James Madison Dukes (27-3, NET: 52, RES: 67.0, QUAL: 53.5)—At a certain point, the sheer volume of wins matters.

Last Team In: Virginia Cavaliers (21-9, NET: 49, RES: 35.0, QUAL: 62.0)—Sadly, the results-based metrics matter more than the blowout losses.

****CUT LINE****

First Team Out: New Mexico Lobos (20-8, NET: 28, RES: 47.0, QUAL: 48.0)—Might need to win at Utah State to punch ticket.

Second Team Out: St. John's Red Storm (17-12, NET: 39, RES: 54.5, QUAL: 29.0)—Just might sneak back in by trouncing Georgetown and DePaul.

Third Team Out: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (18-11, NET: 31, RES: 55.5, QUAL: 23.0)—Couple nice home wins, but road/neutral record has gotten brutal.

Fourth Team Out: Iowa Hawkeyes (18-12, NET: 57, RES: 51.0, QUAL: 46.5)—One of only bubble teams playing up the seed list.

Fifth Team Out: Providence Friars (18-11, NET: 63, RES: 57.0, QUAL: 56.0)—Lost nine out of 16 since the Bryce Hopkins injury.

4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 5. North Carolina, 12. Duke, 21. Clemson, 44. Virginia

Also Considered: Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Biggest Change: WTF, WF?

Wake Forest (court) stormed its way into the projected field one week ago with its home win over Duke. It was the marquee win that had been lacking from what was otherwise a resume with excellent predictive metrics and no terrible losses.

But the Demon Deacons still needed to finish the fight, too.

That win over Duke got them into the projected field, but they had to back up that big win with a series of OK victories down the stretch, if only to avoid accumulating too many total losses and a stockpile of not-terrible-but-certainly-questionable missteps.

Instead, they responded to that seemingly season-defining victory over Duke with back-to-back road losses to Notre Dame and Virginia Tech. They now find themselves right back on the bubble, and probably on the wrong side of it.

Wake Forest now has 11 total losses, a 3-11 record away from home and five Q2 losses with just that one Q1 win over Duke.

We've seen wins over the Blue Devils do some serious heavy lifting in years past, but is that one win and some strong NET/KenPom numbers really going to do the trick?

They'll close out the regular season with home games against Georgia Tech and Clemson. They need to win both of them to enter the ACC tournament in reasonable shape for a bid.

9 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 2. Houston, 8. Baylor, 9. Kansas, 10. Iowa State, 16. BYU, 29. Texas, 30. Texas Tech, 34. TCU, 35. Oklahoma

Also Considered: Cincinnati, Kansas State

Biggest Change: Massive week for BYU

Similar to Wake Forest, the predictive metrics have loved BYU for a while now. However, the Cougars didn't have that many great wins and were starting to look like a borderline No. 8 seed despite a fantastic NET rating.

In particular, they were lacking in the road wins department. They had several impressive home wins over Iowa State, Baylor, San Diego State and Texas, but their best win outside of Provo was against UCF. (Which, granted, is a win that Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech were unable to get when they tried.)

They got that marquee road win this week, though, knocking off Kansas at Phog Allen.

Sure, the Jayhawks didn't have Kevin McCullar Jr., but that didn't stop them from winning home games against Baylor and Texas in recent weeks. That's still an extremely impressive victory for BYU.

Moreover, after that great road win, BYU turned around and got another strong home win, this time over TCU. The Cougars trailed by 17 at halftime, but they outscored the Horned Frogs 58-29 after the intermission for what turned out to be somewhat of a blowout win.

BYU now has four wins over teams projected for No. 5 seeds or better, a total of 10 wins over the top two Quadrants and no Q3/Q4 losses.

Ten-point road losses to Oklahoma State and Kansas State on the previous two Saturdays seemed to suggest the Cougars were leaking oil to the finish line. But now it looks like they're gaining steam and are back in the mix for a No. 4 seed of their own.

5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 3. Connecticut, 7. Marquette, 14. Creighton, 38. Seton Hall, 41. Villanova

Also Considered: St. John's, Providence

Biggest Change: Villanova looking good again, and St. John's surging back into the mix

Less than a month ago, Villanova was 12-11 overall and had fallen almost completely out of the at-large conversation. The Wildcats needed to finish extremely strong to get that record back up to snuff.

After five wins in six games, they're arguably there. Not only are they winning games, but they've picked up a few solid Ws along the way, most notably the 11-point win at Providence on Saturday in what felt like a case of two teams battling for one spot in the field.

Can they get one more win in this final week to seal the deal?

Villanova plays at Seton Hall on Wednesday and hosts Creighton on Saturday, both of which are Q1 opportunities and total coin flips as far as KenPom is concerned. If they can work a split to finish the regular season at 18-13, that would put them in good shape for a bid, provided there aren't an inordinate number of bid thieves this year.

Meanwhile, St. John's built on last weekend's 14-point home win over Creighton with a 23-point shellacking of Butler on the road Wednesday night. The Johnnies now have season sweeps of Villanova and Butler, and they should finish off season sweeps of Georgetown and DePaul this week to get to 19-12 overall.

The Johnnies' home win over Creighton was the only one they've gotten against a team that is anything close to a sure thing for the NCAA tournament, which is concerning. They have a bunch of respectable wins, but only one particularly strong one, putting them somewhat in the same boat as Wake Forest.

It's looking like they'll end up in the No. 4/5 quarterfinal of the Big East tournament against Seton Hall, which could be a "win and you're in" proposition for both squads.

6 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Purdue, 15. Illinois, 23. Wisconsin, 31. Northwestern, 37. Nebraska, 40. Michigan State

Also Considered: Iowa, Ohio State

Biggest Change: Hello, Hawkeyes

On the morning of the Top 16 reveal just a little over two weeks ago, Iowa was nowhere close to the at-large conversation. The Hawkeyes had good enough metrics to consistently get a second look, but what we found on that second look was a team that was winless in Quad 1 with four losses outside of that group, too.

Barring an incredible finish, they were going to take those respectable metrics to the NIT. But they beat Wisconsin on Feb. 17, followed it up with a strong win at Michigan State and added a road win over Northwestern on Saturday, which had been a place that was nearly impossible for road teams to win this season.

It's now getting interesting for Iowa.

We aren't quite all the way there on the Hawkeyes as a tournament team, but a home win over Illinois in their final game of the regular season would probably do the trick. That would be their fourth Q1 win, and arguably the best one yet. They also have a trio of solid Q2A victories over Nebraska, Seton Hall and Minnesota and, again, good metrics for a bubble team.

If they lose to the Illini, however, the Hawkeyes need to hope that leaves them with the No. 8 seed in the Big Ten tournament so they get a shot at Purdue in the quarterfinals early on Friday—provided Iowa can get past the No. 9 seed on Thursday, of course.

5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 17. San Diego State, 24. Utah State, 25. Nevada, 32. Boise State, 36. Colorado State

Also Considered: New Mexico, UNLV

Biggest Change: No major change to profiles, but New Mexico slips out of the field

There were six potential landmines this past week, but the Mountain West's six at-large hopefuls took care of business against the four-team basement of Wyoming, Fresno State, Air Force and San Jose State.

As far as that tier of games is concerned, three more remain during the regular season: SJSU hosting Utah State on Wednesday, Fresno State playing at New Mexico on Wednesday and Air Force hosting Colorado State on Saturday. If the favorites go 3-0, we'll be looking good for at least five, possibly six bids here.

Colorado State and New Mexico still remain up in the air, though.

Given its neutral-site win over Creighton and its total of six wins against the NET top 40, Colorado State should be good, so long as it doesn't lose its finale against Air Force. But if this committee happens to be putting extra emphasis on true road wins, the Rams could wind up closer to the bubble than expected, as their best such victory came against NET No. 185 Northern Colorado.

New Mexico is the much more iffy one, even though the Lobos did sweep Nevada and scored a convincing home win over San Diego State. Unless you're impressed by home wins over UC Irvine and Louisiana Tech, they didn't do anything worth mentioning in nonconference play. They're now headed for the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the MWC tournament, thanks in large part to a home loss to Air Force and a sweep at the hands of UNLV.

Beating Fresno State is a must, and it sure would be great if they could close out the regular season with a road win over Utah State. But if they beat the Bulldogs and lose to the Aggies, this is likely headed for a photo finish.

UNM is currently our last team out of the field, and that is assuming two "bid thieves" in the form of Richmond and South Florida as the projected A10 and AAC champions. If Dayton and Florida Atlantic win those tournaments instead, that would open some room for the Lobos.

3 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 6. Arizona, 19. Washington State, 42. Utah

Also Considered: Colorado, Oregon

Biggest Change: Utah and Colorado continue to hang around

Hosting both Cal and Stanford this week, the Utes and Buffaloes weren't going to be able to do anything to improve their standing along the bubble. But convincing wins would at least keep them in the conversation, which they got.

Utah, in particular, put in some serious work, winning by a combined margin of 51 points to help boost the ol' predictive metrics a bit.

The fact that the Utes are 9-9 in Pac-12 play is tough to stomach, but if the committee truly does not take conference record into consideration, Utah sure looks to be in better shape for a bid than Colorado. Nonconference wins over BYU, Saint Mary's and Wake Forest have aged like a fine wine in the NET. They also won home games against Colorado and Washington State for a total of five wins against the NET top 40.

The Buffaloes have better metrics, but nowhere near that stockpile of quality wins. Outside of home wins over Washington State and Utah—neither of which was a Q1 result—the best win on their team sheet was a road game against Washington, which is just about the worst Q1 win you can get.

But they're still close, and for either one of the Mountain State travel partners to dance, closing out the regular season with a road sweep of the Oregon schools is mandatory. Oregon isn't a tournament team, but that's a low Q1 opportunity, while avoiding a bad loss to Oregon State is a must.

7 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 4. Tennessee, 11. Alabama, 13. Kentucky, 18. Auburn, 20. South Carolina, 27. Florida, 33. Mississippi State

Also Considered: Ole Miss, Texas A&M

Biggest Change: Tennessee sweeps the SEC's metrics darling, surges to a No. 1 seed

Are Alabama and Auburn actually two of the 10 best teams in the country?

Maybe. Maybe not. But the NET sure thinks so. As do KenPom and BPI.

Both schools are top eight in all three of those predictive metrics. They're also both top 11 in the KPI/SOR average.

So for Tennessee to beat Auburn by eight at home and beat Alabama by seven on the road was one hell of a week for a team that already had a mighty fine resume.

The Volunteers now have six wins against the top half of Quad 1 with only two losses outside of that half-quad. The only other teams in that club are Purdue, Houston and Connecticut.

They are also now top six in all five metrics, which applies to only Purdue, Houston, Connecticut and Tennessee.

Through no fault of Arizona and North Carolina, Tennessee has leapfrogged those projected conference champions for the final spot on the top line.

Are they a lock for that fourth No. 1 seed? Absolutely not. There are some major variables yet to come which could shake things up.

But if they win these last two games against South Carolina (road) and Kentucky (home) to gain two more strong Q1 wins while winning an outright SEC regular-season title? Unless North Carolina wins at Duke next weekend and beats the Blue Devils for a third time in the ACC championship, that might be enough for the Volunteers to get a No. 1 regardless of what happens in the SEC tournament.

29 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 22. Saint Mary's, 26. Gonzaga, 28. Dayton, 39. Florida Atlantic, 43. James Madison, 45. Indiana State, 46. Princeton, 47. Grand Canyon, 48. Richmond, 49. South Florida, 50. Appalachian State, 51. McNeese State, 52. Samford, 53. Vermont, 54. Charleston, 55. UC Irvine, 56. Akron, 57. Louisiana Tech, 58. High Point, 59. Oakland, 60. Eastern Washington, 61. Colgate, 62. Quinnipiac, 63. South Dakota State, 64. Norfolk State, 65. Eastern Kentucky, 66. Central Connecticut State, 67. Grambling State, 68. Little Rock

Also Considered: Memphis, Drake

Biggest Change: Two-bid WCC now all but guaranteed, and JMU slides into the field

For four months, we've complained about Gonzaga's lack of Quad 1 wins. But all of a sudden, the Zags have three such victories after finishing the regular season with a road sweep of San Francisco and Saint Mary's.

Those two wins—particularly the one over the Gaels—have quickly turned what was a bubble team into a solid single-digit seed. At this point, there's a case to be made that Gonzaga could climb all the way up to a No. 5 seed if it wins the WCC tournament.

That would be massive, considering Spokane is a lock to go to at least one of the 4/5/12/13 pods, if not two of them. While there are rules about making sure the top 16 overall teams are not placed a geographical disadvantage in the first round, there is nothing preventing Gonzaga from going to Spokane as a No. 5 seed and having a massive advantage in those first two games.

Outside of the WCC, it's long past time to show some more love to the Sun Belt's James Madison.

When it gets down to the bubble, everyone has warts. Some have bad losses. Some are lacking for great wins. But what stands out like a sore thumb is JMU sitting there with only three losses.

The Dukes only have the one quality win at Michigan State on the first day of the regular season, but is the committee really going to take a bunch of 12-loss teams at the expense of a three-loss team?