Men's NCAA Tournament 2024: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams
The 2023-24 men's college basketball regular season has come to a close and mid-major conference tournaments are already in full swing, but there is still work to be done sorting out the NCAA tournament bubble.
For some teams, the coming days will make or break their chances of securing an at-large bid to March Madness, assuming they fall short of securing the automatic bid that comes with winning a conference tournament.
Ahead is a full breakdown of the current bubble situation, with a rundown of how things look in each of the five major conferences as well as the Mountain West and the few notable mid-major teams vying for an at-large bid.
Included is their full resume and recent performance over the past three games, leading up to our take of up, down or holding for each team's current stock.
A lot can still change in the coming days, but this provides a snapshot of where things stand across men's college basketball just a few days from Selection Sunday.
ACC Bubble Teams
Safely in Projected Field: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson
Pittsburgh Panthers (21-10, 12-8 in ACC, NET: 44)
Quad Records: 2-6 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2, 7-2 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win @ Boston College, Win vs. Florida State, Win vs. NC State
The Panthers are 9-2 in their last 11 games, with their only losses during that span coming on the road against Clemson and Wake Forest. They still have just two Quad 1 wins, and an 80-76 victory at Duke on Jan. 20 is their only win over a surefire NCAA tournament team. They stayed alive with their recent play, but there is still work to do in the ACC tournament where they are the No. 4 seed and have a bye to the quarterfinals.
Stock: Up
Virginia Cavaliers (22-9, 13-7 in ACC, NET: 51)
Quad Records: 2-6 vs. Q1, 6-3 vs. Q2, 8-0 vs. Q3, 6-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win @ Boston College, Loss @ Duke, Win vs. Georgia Tech
The Cavaliers had three chances to add a Quad 1 victory to their resume down the stretch and went a combined 0-3 at home against North Carolina (54-44) and on the road against Virginia Tech (75-41) and Duke (73-48). Their six Quad 1 losses have come by an average of 22.5 points, which could factor into the committee's decision on whether to include them in the field.
Stock: Down
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (19-12, 11-9 in ACC, NET: 38)
Quad Records: 2-5 vs. Q1, 6-6 vs. Q2, 5-1 vs. Q3, 6-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss @ Virginia Tech, Loss vs. Georgia Tech, Win vs. Clemson
The Demon Deacons snapped a three-game losing streak with a Quad 1 victory over Clemson to close out the regular season, keeping their at-large hopes alive. However, landing the No. 5 seed in the ACC tournament means they will have to play an additional game on Wednesday, while the other two bubble teams both have a bye to Thursday.
Stock: Holding
Big 12 Bubble Teams
Safely in Projected Field: Houston, Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas, BYU, Texas Tech, Texas
Kansas State Wildcats (18-13, 8-10 in Big 12, NET: 70)
Quad Records: 4-7 vs. Q1, 4-6 vs. Q2, 5-0 vs. Q3, 5-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss @ Cincinnati, Loss @ Kansas, Win vs. Iowa State
After a 4-1 start to Big 12 play, the Wildcats stumbled through a 1-7 stretch, though their lone victory during that span was against Kansas. They snapped that skid with another quality win against BYU on Feb. 24 and then closed out the regular season with a 65-58 upset of Iowa State on Saturday. With the No. 10 seed in the Big 12 tournament, they will open against Texas on Wednesday, and a win would set up a quick rematch with Iowa State in the quarterfinals.
Stock: Up
Oklahoma Sooners (20-11, 8-10 in Big 12, NET: 43)
Quad Records: 4-11 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs, Q2, 3-0 vs. Q3, 8-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss vs. Houston, Win vs. Cincinnati, Loss @ Texas
The Sooners climbed as high as No. 7 in the AP poll earlier this year, and they were still ranked as recently as Feb. 12, but a 2-5 finish to the regular season has put them in a more precarious position. All five of their losses during that time came against teams listed in the "safely in projected field" group, but they have fallen down the Big 12 pecking order to the No. 9 seed in the conference tournament.
Stock: Down
TCU Horned Frogs (20-11, 9-9 in Big 12, NET: 40)
Quad Records: 4-10 vs Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2, 5-0 vs. Q3, 8-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss @ BYU, Win @ West Virginia, Loss vs. UCF
Similar to Oklahoma, the Horned Frogs have spent much of conference play comfortably inside the projected NCAA tournament field, but a 1-3 finish that included a Quad 2 loss against UCF on Saturday has muddied the waters. Those two teams will square off on Wednesday, and the loser of that game will be holding their breaths on Selection Sunday.
Stock: Down
Big East Bubble Teams
Safely in Projected Field: UConn, Marquette, Creighton
Providence Friars (19-12, 10-10 in Big East, NET: 64)
Quad Records: 5-8 vs. Q1, 2-4 vs. Q2, 2-0 vs. Q3, 10-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss vs. Villanova, Win @ Georgetown, Loss vs. UConn
The Friars are trending down following double-digit losses against Marquette (91-65), Villanova (71-60) and UConn (74-60) sandwiched around a road victory over a bad Georgetown team to wrap up the regular-season slate. It will likely take another win over Georgetown in the Big East tournament opener and a victory over Creighton on Thursday for them to have a shot at making the NCAA tournament field.
Stock: Down
Seton Hall Pirates (20-11, 13-7 in Big East, NET: 62)
Quad Records: 5-7 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2, 2-1 vs. Q3, 9-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss @ UConn, Win vs. Villanova, Win vs. DePaul
The Pirates are 7-3 in their last 10 games, and their losses during that time came against Villanova, Creighton and UConn on the road. They also beat St. John's (Feb. 18) and Villanova (March 6) during that span to improve their standing on the Big East bubble, and they will have a rematch against St. John's on Thursday in a must-win game for both teams.
Stock: Holding
St. John's Red Storm (19-12, 11-9 in Big East, NET: 39)
Quad Records: 3-9 vs. Q1, 6-2 vs. Q2, 3-1 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win @ Butler, Win @ DePaul, Win vs. Georgetown
After stumbling through a 1-5 stretch of games that seemingly moved them to the wrong side of the bubble, the Red Storm rattled off five straight wins to close out the regular season. That moved them up to the No. 5 seed in the Big East tournament, and they will open with a head-to-head matchup with Seton Hall.
Stock: Up
Villanova Wildcats (17-14, 10-10 in Big East, NET: 33)
Quad Records: 4-10 vs. Q1, 5-1 vs. Q2, 3-3 vs. Q3, 5-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win @ Providence, Loss @ Seton Hall, Loss vs. Creighton
The Wildcats rank No. 14 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency, and they have held the opposition under 70 points nine times in their last 10 games, going 6-4 during that stretch to keep their at-large hopes alive. That said, consecutive losses to Seton Hall and Creighton to wrap up the regular season may have pushed them to the wrong side of the bubble, so they have work to do in the Big East tournament.
Stock: Down
Big Ten Bubble Teams
Safely in Projected Field: Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan State, Nebraska
Iowa Hawkeyes (18-13, 10-10 in Big Ten, NET: 60)
Quad Records: 3-8 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2, 4-2 vs. Q3, 6-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Penn State, Win @ Northwestern, Loss vs. Illinois
The Hawkeyes played their way onto the bubble with a 4-1 stretch of games that included victories over Wisconsin, Michigan State and Northwestern, but they whiffed in two attempts to beat Illinois down the stretch, including a 73-61 loss on Sunday. Thursday's Big Ten tournament opener against Ohio State is a must-win game for both teams, and a Hawkeyes win would give them a third crack at the Fighting Illini.
Stock: Up
Ohio State Buckeyes (19-12, 9-11 in Big Ten, NET: 54)
Quad Records: 3-6 vs. Q1, 2-5 vs. Q2, 9-1 vs. Q3, 5-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Nebraska, Win vs. Michigan, Win @ Rutgers
The Buckeyes struggled through a 1-8 stretch at one point during conference play, but they rallied to go 6-2 over their final eight games, picking up Quad 1 wins over Purdue and Michigan State. They will need a win over Iowa on Thursday to stay alive for an at-large bid, and they played the Hawkeyes tough in a 79-77 loss on the road back on Feb. 2.
Stock: Up
Mountain West Bubble Teams
Safely in Projected Field: San Diego State, Utah State, Nevada, Boise State
Colorado State Rams (22-9, 10-8 in MWC, NET: 36)
Quad Records: 5-7 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2, 6-1 vs. Q3, 5-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss vs. Nevada, Win vs. Wyoming, Win @ Air Force
It looked like the Rams were cooked when they lost three straight against New Mexico, UNLV and Nevada, but they managed to pull off must-win victories over Wyoming and Air Force to close out the regular season. With a nonconference win over Creighton, five Quad 1 victories overall and a winning record in a stacked Mountain West Conference, their resume is strong, but they can't afford a loss to San Jose State on Wednesday.
Stock: Down
New Mexico Lobos (22-9, 10-8 in MWC, NET: 28)
Quad Records: 2-7 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2, 6-0 vs. Q3, 9-1 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss @ Boise State, Win vs. Fresno State, Loss @ Utah State
The Lobos have not made the NCAA tournament since 2014, and while their No. 28 NET ranking is difficult to ignore, they are far from a lock for the field. A Quad 4 loss against Air Force (NET: 269) on Feb. 24 and a 2-4 showing overall in their final six games has left them trending down at the wrong time, and they probably need to beat Air Force and Boise State in their first two MWC tournament games to keep their hopes alive.
Stock: Down
Pac-12 Bubble Teams
Safely in Projected Field: Arizona, Washington State
Colorado Buffaloes (22-9, 13-7 in Pac-12, NET: 27)
Quad Records: 2-5 vs. Q1, 7-4 vs. Q2, 6-0 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Stanford, Win @ Oregon, Win @ Oregon State
The Buffaloes have won six in a row, but three of those games came on the Quad 3 line, and none of them were against Arizona or Washington State. A home victory over Washington State back on New Year's Eve is their only win against an NCAA tournament lock. They get the winner of Utah vs. Arizona State on Thursday in a must-win game.
Stock: Up
Utah Utes (18-13, 9-11 in Pac-12, NET: 52)
Quad Records: 4-8 vs. Q1, 4-3 vs. Q2, 5-2 vs. Q3, 5-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. California, Loss @ Oregon State, Loss @ Oregon
The Utes went 0-2 on their Oregon road trip to close out the regular season, including a Quad 3 loss to Oregon State (NET: 161) on Thursday, and they went a combined 2-9 on the road this year. Quad 1 nonconference victories over BYU, Saint Mary's and Wake Forest continue to prop up their resume, but they will need to beat Arizona State on Wednesday and Colorado on Thursday to stay in the bubble mix.
Stock: Down
SEC Bubble Teams
Safely in Projected Field: Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina, Florida
Mississippi State Bulldogs (19-12, 8-10 in SEC, NET: 42)
Quad Records: 4-8 vs. Q1, 2-3 vs. Q2, 7-0 vs. Q3, 6-1 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss @ Auburn, Loss @ Texas A&M, Loss vs. South Carolina
The Bulldogs were on the right side of the bubble before losing four straight to wrap up the regular season, and while those losses came against Kentucky, Auburn, Texas A&M and South Carolina, it was still a major blow to their resume. They have fallen all the way down to the No. 9 seed in the SEC tournament, which means a win over LSU on Thursday would set up a matchup with No. 1 Tennessee on Friday.
Stock: Down
Texas A&M Aggies (18-13, 9-9 in SEC, NET: 46)
Quad Records: 5-6 vs. Q1, 6-3 vs. Q2, 2-4 vs. Q3, 5-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win @ Georgia, Win vs. Mississippi State, Win @ Ole Miss
The Aggies salvaged their bubble hopes with three straight wins down the stretch, but none of them came against projected NCAA tournament teams, and that winning streak came on the heels of a five-game losing skid. They open the SEC tournament against an Ole Miss team they just beat by 26 points on Saturday, and another win would set up a quarterfinal meeting with Kentucky.
Stock: Up
Mid-Major Bubble Teams
Automatic Bids: Drake, James Madison, Longwood, Morehead State, Samford, Stetson
Safely in Projected Field: Dayton, Gonzaga, Saint Mary's, Florida Atlantic
Indiana State Sycamores (28-6, 17-3 in MVC, NET: 29)
Quad Records: 1-4 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2, 10-0 vs. Q3, 12-1 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Missouri State, Win vs. Northern Iowa, Loss vs. Drake
With an 84-80 loss to Drake in the MVC tournament title game on Sunday, the Sycamores will rely on an at-large bid to punch their ticket to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2011. Their only Quad 1 win came on the road against Bradley on Dec. 2, and they lost to Alabama and Michigan State by a combined 34 points in their two biggest nonconference tests of the year. Will their 28 wins and strong NET ranking be enough?
Stock: Holding
Memphis Tigers (22-9, 11-7 in AAC, NET: 69)
Quad Records: 2-3 vs. Q1, 4-4 vs. Q2, 11-1 vs. Q3, 5-1 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win @ East Carolina, Win vs. UAB, Loss @ Florida Atlantic
It's been a roller coaster season for the Tigers who peaked at No. 10 in the AP poll on Jan. 15 before losing four in a row, including a Quad 4 loss against Rice. They won four in a row before losing to Florida Atlantic in the regular-season finale, but they split the season series with the Owls and also had Quad 1 wins over Clemson and Texas A&M. Still, they might need to reach the AAC title game to have an at-large chance.
Stock: Holding
Princeton Tigers (24-3, 12-2 in Ivy League, NET: 48)
Quad Records: 0-0 vs. Q1, 2-3 vs. Q2, 11-0 vs. Q3, 9-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Columbia, Win vs. Cornell, Win @ Penn
The only hiccup for the Tigers this season came when they suffered back-to-back road losses to Cornell and Yale, and they ran their winning streak to nine in a row with a 105-83 blowout over Penn on Saturday. The fact that they have not played a Quad 1 game all season is going to work against them, but they still have an outside chance of earning the first at-large bid in Ivy League history. They will need to at least reach the conference title game.
Stock: Holding
South Florida Bulls (23-6, 16-2 in AAC, NET: 78)
Quad Records: 1-0 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2, 8-1 vs. Q3, 9-2 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win @ Charlotte, Win vs. Tulane, Loss @ Tulsa
The Bulls had an impressive 15-game winning streak snapped in a Quad 3 road loss against Tulsa on Saturday, and while they have gone 21-2 over their last 23 games, they started the season 2-4 with Quad 4 losses against Central Michigan and Maine. That leaves them with less-than-stellar overall metrics and some work to do in the AAC tournament if they want to secure an at-large bid.
Stock: Down
Others to Watch: Grand Canyon, James Madison, McNeese State, Richmond