All 30 MLB Teams' Smartest 2023-24 Offseason Decision

With Opening Day now just a little over two weeks away, the time is right to look back on MLB's 2023-24 offseason and give credit where it's due.

So, let's do that by zeroing in on the smartest decision each team made.

The obvious caveat for now is that smart decisions are still waiting to be made on Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and J.D. Martinez, but there's plenty to work with. We'll be touching on extensions, signings, trades made and not made, and even some risky strategies that panned out.

Rather than hit on each team individually, all 30 clubs have been sorted into one of 11 categories that touch on all of the above. Teams in each category are arranged in alphabetical order by city.

Now then, let's hurry up and talk about patience.

Chicago Cubs: Waiting Out Cody Bellinger

The Deal: 3 years, $80 million with opt-outs after 2024 and 2025

Bellinger was never going to be the highest-paid free agent of the winter, but he and agent Scott Boras weren't exactly aiming low with their initial demands. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, they started out eyeing a deal "in excess of $250 million."

That they settled for less than a third of that sucks for them, but I'll give you one guess as to who it's good for.

That's the Cubs, of course, who deserve at least a golf clap for their masterclass in reading the room on Bellinger.

Once the New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays went elsewhere to fill outfield needs, there just wasn't a clear market for the erstwhile Rookie of the Year and MVP outside of Chicago.

San Francisco Giants: Waiting Out Matt Chapman

The Deal: 3 years, $54 million with opt-outs after 2024 and 2025

Speaking of Boras clients who settled for a lot less than expected, how about Chapman's deal with the Giants?

This is also about a third of what he had been projected for at the start of the winter. Yet there wasn't much buzz on Chapman, which makes this an equally notable example of reading the room on the Giants' part.

Further, they arguably needed Chapman even more than the Cubs needed Bellinger.

Suffice it to say that the four-time Gold Glover is the caliber of defender San Francisco badly needed after finishing fifth from bottom in defensive efficiency last season.

Detroit Tigers: The Colt Keith Extension

The Deal: 6 years, $28.6 million with club options for 2030-32

The Tigers had a good young core coming together even before they extended Keith, and chances are that the deal will be a bargain in the long run.

It's technically a six-year contract, but the club options and escalators could turn it into a nine-year, $82 million pact. That this will ultimately be the case is certainly what the Tigers are hoping for, and those hopes are not misplaced.

Though the 22-year-old has yet to take an official major league at-bat, he'll begin 2024 as B/R's Joel Reuter's No. 13 prospect after a season in which he posted a .932 OPS and 27 home runs in the high minors. In other words, the makings of a star are there.

Milwaukee Brewers: The Jackson Chourio Extension

The Deal: 8 years, $82 million with club options for 2032-33

Elsewhere on the topic of star makings, Chourio ranks behind only Jackson Holliday on Reuter's list and is about as exciting as 20-year-old prospects come.

Chourio, who only turned 20 on Monday, is seen as an above average hitter with plus power and speed. Those latter two skills showed through nicely as he racked up 22 homers and 44 stolen bases in the high minors last year.

The superstar potential here is real, alright. And if it comes to be, the Brewers are going to get a lot more than their money's worth out of their eight-year pact with him.

Kansas City Royals: The Bobby Witt Jr. Extension

The Deal: 11 years, $288.7 million with player options and 3-year team option

The actual structure of Witt's deal with the Royals is more complicated than what it says above, but perhaps the bottom line is this: It could max out at 14 years and $377.7 million.

That's a lot of money for any team, much less the Royals. But the thing to remember is that Witt is a 23-year-old who already has 50 homers and 79 steals even though he's still not quite the finished product.

If he polishes his rough edges, the sky's the limit.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Zack Wheeler Extension

The Deal: 3 years, $126 million

It's fair to have misgivings about this deal. It will, after all, pay $42 million per year to a 33-year-old hurler with Tommy John surgery in his background.

And yet, this is also a guy who leads all pitchers in fWAR in his four seasons as a Phillie. And even if his arm breaks down, Wheeler could still be of great value if his mind rubs off on up-and-coming hurlers such as Andrew Painter and Mick Abel.

Pittsburgh Pirates: The Mitch Keller Extension

The Deal: 5 years, $77 million

As fair as it is to criticize Pirates owner Bob Nutting for his refusal to spend in free agency, it's a good look that he's given the green light to big-money extensions for Ke'Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds and now Keller within the last two years.

Keller's MLB career didn't get off to the best start, but the corner is well and truly turned. Go back 47 starts to July 11, 2022, and the 27-year-old ranks 12th in innings with nearly the same ERA as 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara.

Colorado Rockies: The Dakota Hudson Signing

The Deal: 1 year, $1.5 million

I'm far from in love with this deal, but I'll take Hudson to succeed as a Rockie over fellow newcomer hurler Cal Quantrill.

It helps to keep the ball on the ground at Coors Field, and Hudson has a 55.1 ground-ball percentage for his career.

Los Angeles Angels: The Aaron Hicks Signing

The Deal: 1 year, $740,000

It's hard to praise the Angels' deal with Robert Stephenson while he's dealing with a shoulder injury, so praise for the Hicks deal it is.

The major league minimum is more than fair enough for a guy who had an .806 OPS as a part-timer with the Baltimore Orioles last season.

Toronto Blue Jays: The Joey Votto Signing

The Deal: MiLB deal worth up to $4 million

If nothing else, the Blue Jays bringing a Toronto native and potential future Hall of Famer home is a great human interest story. Otherwise, nobody should be ruling out 40-year-old Votto being to the Jays in 2024 what Albert Pujols was to the St. Louis Cardinals in 2022.

Washington Nationals: The Eddie Rosario Signing

The Deal: MiLB deal worth up to $4 million

The Nationals have also done low-risk deals with Joey Gallo, Nick Senzel and Jesse Winker, but what Rosario has on all three is that he actually had a solid year after belting 21 homers in 2023. The 32-year-old could turn into a decently valuable trade chip.

Miami Marlins: The Tim Anderson Signing

The Deal: 1 year, $5 million

The Marlins basically didn't have a shortstop before they did this deal, so it's an upgrade just in that sense. And if Anderson can stay healthy and be the guy who hit .318 and was generally one of MLB's brightest stars between 2019 and 2022, it will be a huge steal.

New York Mets: The Luis Severino Signing

The Deal: 1 year, $13 million

Of the nine one-year deals the Mets did with free agents, this one has the best chance of turning into a robbery. Even in a brutal 2023 season, Severino still had good stuff. He's also looked great this spring while pitching five shutout innings with five strikeouts and no walks.

Tampa Bay Rays: The Phil Maton Signing

The Deal: 1 year, $6.5 million

The hope here seems to be that Maton will adequately fill in for Stephenson, who was a revelation as a Ray in 2023. Count me in. Though left-handed batters handle him just fine, the 30-year-old was more dominant last season than even his 3.00 ERA would indicate.

Texas Rangers: The Kirby Yates Signing

The Deal: 1 year, $4.5 million

Apropos of the above, the 3.28 ERA that Yates posted for Atlanta last season doesn't really capture how good he was. Though walks were an issue, he permitted only a .167 batting average. He should deepen a Rangers bullpen that was shallow during the regular season last year.

Cincinnati Reds: The Jeimer Candelario Signing

The Deal: 3 years, $45 million with 2027 club option

The Reds didn't need another infielder when they signed Candelario in December, but it still looked like a solid deal at the time. Generally above average hitters (which he has been in three of the last four seasons) are always welcome, after all.

Now, though, the Candelario signing is looking downright crucial. With Noelvi Marte having been banned 80 games for violating the league's performance-enhancing drugs policy, the Reds are suddenly down an important infielder.

Seattle Mariners: The Mitch Garver Signing

The Deal: 2 years, $24 million with 2026 mutual option

Garver has experienced ups and downs over the last five years, but he's coming to Seattle off a pretty high up. He posted an .874 OPS for the Rangers last season and then drove in 14 runs during their run to the World Series championship.

The 33-year-old is also meant to fill what had been a substantial weakness for the Mariners, whose designated hitters ranked 28th in MLB with a .677 OPS last year.

St. Louis Cardinals: The Sonny Gray Signing

The Deal: 3 years, $75 million with 2027 club option

It is a little worrying that the 34-year-old Gray has already run into injury trouble in the form of a strained right hamstring. He hasn't been ruled out for Opening Day, though, and at least his arm and shoulder are fine.

Otherwise, there's nothing not to like about this deal. Gray is a three-time All-Star who led qualified hurlers in Fielding Independent Pitching in 2023, and he can thus be a boon to a Cardinals rotation that got rocked for a 5.08 ERA last season.

Houston Astros: The Josh Hader Signing

The Deal: 5 years, $95 million

The Astros needed bullpen help even before they lost Kendall Graveman for 2024 by way of shoulder surgery. As such, you have to hand it to general manager Dana Brown for acting accordingly.

Hader does come with some red flags, including a strikeout rate and average fastball velocity that both dipped in 2023. But he's still a five-time All-Star closer who's posted ERAs in the 1.00s in two of the last three seasons.

Though Brown hasn't closed the door on additional moves to help the pen, he can rest easy knowing that any leads the Astros have should be safe in the last three innings. That will be the province of Hader, Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly, who now form the best relief trio in MLB.

Los Angeles Dodgers: The Shohei Ohtani Signing

The Deal: 10 years, $700 million

OK, so, it's not really a $700 million contract that Ohtani is on with the Dodgers. All the deferred money makes its present-day value more like $460 million.

Of course, that and the fact that the 29-year-old will only be paid $2 million annually between 2024 and 2033 is the beauty of it for the Dodgers. It means that much more payroll flexibility, an advantage they were quick to flex when they inked Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year, $325 million deal.

As for actually having Ohtani, well, that's not so bad either. Even if his right elbow never allows him to pitch again, he should have a few years left as a 40-homer threat. And also, a lifetime of turning kids all over the world into Dodgers fans.

Chicago White Sox: Not Trading Dylan Cease

This would be presumptuous if we had no idea what the White Sox might have gotten for Cease, except we do. According to Nightengale, the Orioles offered the same package for him that they ultimately shipped to the Brewers for Corbin Burnes.

As we'll discuss later, that was an underwhelming package. And while the risk for the White Sox in rejecting involves Cease potentially losing value, it's one worth taking.

His stuff remained elite even as his results took a dive from 2022 to 2023, and he's looked good in the two starts he's made this spring. If said results recover, he stands to be the top trade target ahead of the July 30 deadline.

Cleveland Guardians: Not Trading Shane Bieber

Since the White Sox were unable to find a package to their liking for Cease, it's not surprising that Bieber has also stayed put in Cleveland. He had a rough year of his own in 2023, and he is only controlled through this year whereas Cease is controlled through 2025.

Plus, the Guardians' rotation depth is looking shakier now that young right-hander Gavin Williams is dealing with elbow discomfort. Sans Bieber, it would look even shakier.

San Diego Padres: Not Trading Ha-Seong Kim

At least according to FanGraphs, the Padres have better odds of making the playoffs than the White Sox and the Guardians. Them holding on to Kim was a good idea just to this extent.

Yet there's also the prospect of Kim's value becoming even greater after back-to-back 5-plus rWAR seasons. His move from second base to shortstop is a factor in this regard, and the 28-year-old is teasing with a 1.040 OPS this spring that he may be in for a big offensive year.

Boston Red Sox: The Alex Verdugo Trade

The Deal: New York Yankees get LF Alex Verdugo; Boston Red Sox get RHP Richard Fitts, RHP Greg Weissert, RHP Nicholas Judice

First of all, a "yikes" is in order here. The Red Sox really only made splashes on Lucas Giolito, Vaughn Grissom and Tyler O'Neill this offseason, and all three are dealing with injuries.

It's therefore kind of by default that the Verdugo trade is the pick here, though that's not meant to imply it was in any way bad.

For Boston, the deal A) jettisoned a guy who had to go, B) cleared the way for promising young outfielder Wilyer Abreu and C) subtracted three pitchers from a key AL East rival. That, if anything, is a good deal.

Minnesota Twins: The Jorge Polanco Trade

The Deal: Seattle Mariners get 2B Jorge Polanco; Minnesota Twins get RHP Justin Topa, RHP Anthony DeSclafani, OF Gabriel Gonzalez, RHP Darren Bowen, cash

Likewise, this is not meant to imply that the Polanco trade was a bad one for the Mariners. They needed a second baseman and he's a good one.

But this trade had more benefits for the Twins, starting with how Topa and Gonzalez are two legit assets. The former is a ground ball machine as a middle reliever, while the latter is Reuter's No. 62 overall prospect.

The Twins also shed $5.3 million in this transaction, which they immediately invested into Carlos Santana to fill their void at first base.

Arizona Diamondbacks: The Eugenio Suárez Trade

The Deal: Arizona Diamondbacks get 3B Eugenio Suárez; Seattle Mariners get C Seby Zavala, RHP Carlos Vargas

Unlike the Polanco trade, this one still doesn't look good for Seattle. They did save some money, but you'd think that a guy with Suárez's creds could have fetched more talent.

For the Diamondbacks, on the other hand, it's this simple: They now have a guy with 246 career home runs in a spot that produced only 10 long balls last season.

Atlanta: The Chris Sale Trade

The Deal: Atlanta gets LHP Chris Sale; Boston Red Sox get 2B Vaughn Grissom

Making a smooth transition to shortstop was pretty much Grissom's only hope of achieving stardom in Atlanta. Once that didn't pan out, a trade seemed almost inevitable.

The caveat with the trade Atlanta did make is that Sale is no longer a perennial Cy Young Award contender. Yet he is healthy going into a season for the first time in a long time, and he's looked it as he's whiffed 11 of the 35 batters he's faced this spring. Many clubs wish they could have a guy like that as a No. 4 starter.

Oakland Athletics: The Abraham Toro Trade

The Deal: Oakland Athletics get INF Abraham Toro; Milwaukee Brewers get RHP Chad Patrick

Yeah, there were slim pickings for the A's. Maybe one could make the case for the Ross Stripling trade or the Alex Wood signing, but I won't.

I'm not trying to dunk on Toro, mind you. He's been a productive player in the minors and is still only 27 years old. And from the .370 average he's put up this spring, one is inclined to think he's energized by this new chance to play every day.

Baltimore Orioles: The Corbin Burnes Trade

The Deal: Baltimore Orioles get RHP Corbin Burnes; Milwaukee Brewers get INF Joey Ortiz, LHP DL Hall, 2024 Competitive Balance Round A pick

The simulator at Baseball Trade Values actually rates this as a fair swap, and that makes some sense. Both Ortiz and Hall are real prospects, and that pick is the No. 34 selection in this year's draft.

But even if he only has this season left until free agency, it feels light for a Cy Young Award-winning ace, doesn't it?

Indeed it does, which only made it look more like a win for an Orioles squad coming off a 101-win season. And with fellow starters Kyle Bradish and John Means set to begin the year on the injured list, Burnes is only looming larger in Baltimore's rotation nowadays.

New York Yankees: The Juan Soto Trade

The Deal: New York Yankees get OF Juan Soto, OF Trent Grisham; San Diego Padres get RHP Michael King, RHP Jhony Brito, RHP Drew Thorpe, RHP Randy Vásquez, catcher Kyle Higashioka

By contrast, it has been and still is hard to hate this trade for the Padres. It was largely motivated by a need to cut payroll, sure, but King has ace upside and those other three pitchers offer real talent as well.

But this Soto guy? Yeah, he's pretty good.

Even relative to his career .946 OPS, he's looking ready to have a huge year amid a spring in which he's slammed four home runs and compiled a 1.573 OPS. And if he does, he'll be the impact left-handed hitter that the Yankees have been without for far too long.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.