Men's NCAA Bracket Predictions 2024: Sleeper Teams That Could Make Deep Runs
Plenty of words will be written about mid-major standouts and double-digit seeds that have a chance to play the role of Cinderella in the 2024 men's NCAA tournament, but what about the sleeper teams hiding in the middle of the pack that have a chance to make a legitimate title run?
Last year marked the first time in tournament history that no teams from the first three seed lines reached the Final Four, with No. 4 UConn, No. 5 San Diego State, No. 5 Miami and No. 9 Florida Atlantic emerging from their respective regions.
So which teams outside the nation's elite have a chance to go on a similar run this year?
Ahead we've highlighted five squads seeded below the top four seed lines with a legitimate shot at making a run to the national championship.
They might not be Cinderella stories during the opening weekend, but any of these squads reaching the Final Four would likely mean at least one huge upset victory along the way.
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BYU Cougars
Seed: No. 6 in East Region
Top 4 Teams in Region: 1. UConn, 2. Iowa State, 3. Illinois, 4. Auburn
The BYU Cougars looked right at home during their first season in the Big 12, finishing 10-8 in the nation's top conference while spending most of the season in the AP poll, peaking at No. 12 in early January.
They racked up six Quad 1 victories, going into Lawrence, Kansas, and beating the Jayhawks while also knocking off Iowa State, Baylor and San Diego State on their home court to build a compelling NCAA tournament resume and prove they can beat anyone.
The Cougars rank second in the nation in three-point makes (11.2) and attempts (32.2) per game. They also check in third nationally in assists per game (18.6), and they have a long list of weapons on the perimeter with seven players who have made at least 20 threes on the year.
There is always some bust risk with a team that lives and dies with the three ball, and the Cougars went 0-7 in games where they shot under 30 percent from distance, but if they get hot at the right time they could go on a serious run.
Florida Atlantic Owls
Seed: No. 8 in East Region
Top 4 Teams in Region: 1. UConn, 2. Iowa State, 3. Illinois, 4. Auburn
Can the Florida Atlantic Owls do it again?
Johnell Davis (18.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG), Vladislav Goldin (15.4 PPG, 6.9 RPG) and Alijah Martin (13.6 PPG, 5.9 RPG) lead the way, and the team's top six scorers were all part of last year's Cinderella squad that reached the Final Four.
They began the year at No. 10 in the AP poll and spent much of the year ranked, but road losses to UAB, South Florida and Memphis in February moved them down the NCAA tournament seeding picture.
The Owls rank 16th in the nation with 82.8 points per game and check in 17th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency, but their defense has been inconsistent, and they allowed a sub-.500 Temple team to shoot 12-of-24 from behind the arc in their semifinal loss in the AAC tournament.
Still, there is something to be said for experience in the bright lights of March Madness, and this team is loaded with returning talent from last year's surprise run to national prominence.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Seed: No. 5 in Midwest
Top 4 Teams in Region: 1. Purdue, 2. Tennessee, 3. Creighton, 4. Kansas
There was a brief stretch in January following a road loss to Santa Clara (NET: 104) where it looked like the Gonzaga Bulldogs were in danger of missing the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1998.
They finally picked up their first Quad 1 win of the season with an 89-85 victory over Kentucky on Feb. 10, and that was part of an eight-game winning streak to close out the regular season that also included a 70-57 victory on the road against rival Saint Mary's.
The Gaels returned the favor in the West Coast Conference title game, but the Bulldogs still appear to be rounding into form at the perfect time.
Now they enter March Madness with their lowest seed since they were a No. 11 in 2016 tournament, and returning to the role of underdog rather than being one of the nation's top dogs could serve them well.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Seed: No. 8 in West Region
Top 4 Teams in Region: 1. North Carolina, 2. Arizona, 3. Baylor, 4. Alabama
The Mississippi State Bulldogs were in danger of slipping to the wrong side of the NCAA tournament bubble when they lost four straight to close out the regular season, but they made a statement on Friday against Tennessee.
They hung a lopsided 73-56 final score on a Volunteers team that was the top seed in the SEC tournament and is a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament.
They shot 55.3 percent from the floor on the offensive end while also limiting National Player of the Year candidate Dalton Knecht to 14 points on 4-of-17 shooting, proving they can put together a complete game against one of the nation's elite teams.
They ultimately fell short against Auburn in the SEC tournament semifinals, but hung tough in a 73-66 game with point guard Josh Hubbard continuing his recent stretch of strong play with a team-high 20 points.
The freshman standout has averaged 25.4 points and buried 35 threes over his last eight games, and he has the potential to be a March Madness breakout star if the Bulldogs can find the form they showed on Friday.
New Mexico Lobos
Seed: No. 11 in West Region
Top 4 Teams in Region: 1. North Carolina, 2. Arizona, 3. Baylor, 4. Alabama
The Mountain West was one of the deepest conferences in the country this year with five teams comfortably in the NCAA tournament field when the conference tournament tipped off, but none of those teams walked away with the automatic bid.
That went to a New Mexico Lobos squad that spent much of the season on the bubble, but stepped up when it mattered most with four wins in four days, including double-digit victories over Boise State (76-66) and Colorado State (74-61) before upending San Diego State in the title game on Saturday.
The Lobos have come a long way in three seasons under head coach Richard Pitino, from a 13-19 finish in his first year at the helm to their first NCAA tournament appearance in a decade here in 2024.
They have a deep roster with eight players who average at least 17 minutes per game, and they love to run, ranking eighth in KenPom's adjusted tempo metric while getting up a staggering 65.2 shot attempts per game.
If they can push the pace and play the up-and-down game they prefer, the potential is there for a deep March Madness run. Case in point, they went 17-1 in games where they tallied at least 80 points.