NCAA Bracket 2024: Predicting Top Men's Bubble Teams on Selection Sunday

Conference tournament week was a crucial one for some of this year's bubble teams. Several teams went into the week unsure of their tournament future only to notch a big win or two to establish themselves in the Big Dance.

Mississippi State was considered to be a "Last 4 In" team by ESPN's Joe Lunardi on Friday, but the Bulldogs' win over top-seeded Tennessee in the SEC tournament quarterfinals gave them a definitive nudge into the field of 68 in Lunardi's most recent Bracketology.

Bid stealers made things much more complicated for bubble teams heading into selection Sunday. NC State and Oregon, both of which were not tournament-bound before this week, pulled off massive upsets to win their respective conference tournaments and take away bids from a few bubble teams.

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Michigan State has certainly played like a tournament team at times this season, but the Spartans' 19-14 record leaves them nervous on Sunday morning as they await the decision of the selection committee.

Michigan State handled Minnesota in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament and was five points shy of a massive upset over top-seeded Purdue in the quarterfinals. A win over the Boilermakers likely would have left the Spartans with no doubt over their tournament standing, but instead, they will head into Sunday with hopes of receiving an at-large bid.

Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller considers Michigan State to be the third-to-last team in while Lunardi has the Spartans as one of the last four teams receiving a bye.

While Michigan State doesn't have a stellar resume, the metrics point to a tournament bid for the Spartans. Michigan State is the No. 25 team in the NCAA's NET rankings despite having 14 losses—the most of any team inside the top 25. Of the Spartans' 14 losses, nine have come against Quad 1 teams and five have come from Quad 2 opponents. Michigan State is No. 20 in KenPom, boasting the No. 9 defense and the 12th-best strength of schedule.

Tom Izzo and Michigan State are playing the waiting game heading into Selection Sunday, but the Spartans have come a long way from their season-opening upset loss to James Madison and now have a solid case for an NCAA tournament bid.

Prediction: First Four

Providence did itself a favor with a huge win over Creighton in the Big East tournament, and the Friars likely could have sealed their tournament fate by beating Marquette in the semifinals, but they'll instead have to hope for grace from the selection committee.

After Friday night's loss, Lunardi has Providence as a "first four out" team and Miller considers them to be the first team out of the tournament. A close look at the Friars' resume shows that the selection committee will have plenty of trouble deciding what to do with them.

The Friars are ranked No. 57 in the NCAA's NET Rankings and No. 53 in KenPom. Providence has six Quad 1 wins, making it one of just 31 teams with five or more Quad 1 wins. All of the Friars' 13 losses have come to either Quad 1 or Quad 2 teams, nine of them to the former.

Comparing Providence to bubble team Michigan State and Florida Atlantic—which is a No. 8 seed in Lunardi's bracket—CBS Sports' Seth Davis put the Friars' tournament case in perspective.

The Friars have all the makings of a tournament team, but there are plenty of bubble teams just as deserving. Ultimately, the committee has a difficult decision with Providence, and with a strong bubble field and bid thieves, that decision might not favor the Friars.

Prediction: Out of NCAA tournament

Texas A&M improved its tournament chances tremendously with a win over Kentucky in the SEC tournament this week, but a loss to Florida in the semifinals means the Aggies will be sweating on Sunday.

Lunardi has Texas A&M receiving one of the last four byes in his Bracketology and Miller projects the Aggies to go dancing.

The Aggies' resume makes them a tricky team for the committee to place. On one hand, Texas A&M has the most Quad 1 wins of any team on the bubble with seven. The Aggies beat Tennessee once and Kentucky twice and were just shy of reaching the SEC tournament championship game. Texas A&M is ranked No. 42 in the NCAA's Net Rankings and No. 44 in KenPom.

While the Aggies have an impressive resume, they have also gone 2-5 against Quad 4 teams, which could negate their success against Quad 1 teams. Losses to Vanderbilt, Arkansas and LSU stick out on what is otherwise a solid record for Texas A&M.

Bid thieves Colorado and NC State also don't help teams on the bubble like the Aggies.

Texas A&M is playing the waiting game now, and its fate lies in the hands of the committee, which will have to decide if the Aggies' Quad 1 wins are enough to send them dancing.

Prediction: First Four