B.S. Meter on the Top 2024 NFL Draft Narratives and Rumors After Free Agency

The first week of free agency is in the rearview mirror. Which means that NFL draft silly season is upon us.

Draft analysts, scouts and front offices around the league have been watching film and dissecting these prospects since the college football season. But every year there are new narratives and buzz that emerge around this time of year.

Some things are nothing more than debate fodder. Others are merely smoke screens sent out by teams around the league. While others are just straight-up wrong.

It can be tough to discern what's legitimate, what's B.S. and what has a little bit of both to it.

Here's a look at some of the latest buzz and narratives that have developed along with a B.S. rating for each one. The B.S. Meter goes from 1-10 with 1 being closest to the truth and 10 being utter B.S.

The Arizona Cardinals will hold a lot of power if/when they get on the clock with the fourth overall selection. At this point, it feels inevitable that Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels will be gone after the first three picks.

That means the Cardinals could snag Marvin Harrison Jr. or sell the pick to the highest bidder with every non-quarterback on the board. J.J. McCarthy, who seems to be garnering momentum, could be on the board too.

The latest rumor that ESPN's Matt Miller passed along is that the Cardinals will be trading the fourth overall pick to the Minnesota Vikings who are interested in drafting McCarthy.

Given the move the Vikings made earlier this month with the Houston Texans to acquire an additional first-round pick, it would appear there's some fire to this smoke.

Even if the Vikings aren't the suitor, it would still make sense for the Cardinals to trade back. Marvin Harrison Jr. is a potentially transcendent talent, but as Miller noted, the Cards were quiet in free agency and have a lot of needs that need to be addressed.

This receiver class is also deep. Nine wide receiver prospects made the Top 50 on our big board.

If the Cards can get a good package of draft picks for someone trading up to get McCarthy or Harrison Jr., they should pull the trigger.

B.S. Meter: 2

For much of the college football season, Drake Maye was at least considered the No. 2 quarterback in this draft class, if not 1B to Caleb Williams' 1A.

Granted, Jayden Daniels moved up boards throughout the season, winning a Heisman and showing that he has the athletic tools to be a potential franchise quarterback. The LSU quarterback has certainly earned his way to the top-five conversation.

But the discourse on Maye has seemingly shifted while no one was playing football. ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. has moved Daniels ahead of Maye in his latest mock draft. Chris Simms has Maye as low as his sixth-best quarterback in the class.

Kiper has the Patriots taking Maye with the third pick, which is at least reasonable but Tony Pauline of Sportskeeda reported there's a belief that the Patriots aren't sold on Maye and would trade out of the third pick if Daniels is not available.

Based on our rankings, that would be a critical error for the New England Patriots. Not only are we higher on Maye than Daniels, the North Carolina quarterback gets the nod over Williams as our QB1 by the thinnest of margins.

B/R scout Derrik Klassen acknowledges that Maye has a few struggles as a processor, but also praises his arm talent and ability to make all the throws.

"He can throw a 100 mph fastball into a tight window over the middle or outside the numbers. Maye can also throttle down and put throws where only his receiver can go get it, as well as creating smooth yards-after-the-catch transitions for his receivers on underneath routes. He possesses every club in the bag."

Maye is still the most logical selection for the Commanders at No. 2.

B.S. Meter: 9

Wild prospect-to-pro comparisons and conversations about hand size are an annual tradition when it comes to draft fare.

Mel Kiper Jr. gave us a little bit of both in recently comparing Oregon quarterback Bo Nix to future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees.

"Hand size even, exactly the same," Kiper said on ESPN (h/t Timothy Rapp of B/R) . "Nix 6'2", Drew Brees 6'0.5". Both around 215 [pounds]. Accurate passers. Don't have the big arm—Brees didn't have the big arm, that's why he was the first pick in the second round, right? Nix doesn't have the big arm."

The Broncos are rather desperate for a quarterback and don't have a lot of draft capital to trade up for one. With the top four quarterbacks potentially off the board, it could be tempting to mock Nix to the Broncos.

Field Yates of ESPN joined the movement by mocking Nix to the Broncos at 12, citing their lack of picks as a reason to get aggressive.

Nix comes in at No. 81 overall on our big board. After five years of starting at Auburn and Oregon, B/R's Derrik Klassen noted that Nix is "still an incomplete player for someone who has played so much football."

Specifically, Klassen dinged Nix for, "inconsistent dropback footwork. Too often disrupts his timing when working full-bodied dropback passing concepts."

That would be especially tough as a fit in Payton's timing-based offense. Maybe the Broncos trade back into the late first round or get into the second, but this pick at 12 feels far-fetched.

B.S. Meter: 8

Teams generally aren't keen on spending premium draft capital on interior offensive linemen. The top picks in the first round are generally reserved for tackles.

That held true in the 2023 draft. Peter Skoronski was the only first-round pick who played on the interior and even he was viewed as a tackle prospect by some.

Matt Miller of ESPN recently noted that this year's draft could look a lot more like 2022. There were four interior offensive linemen taken in the first 32 picks two years ago. After guards got paid in free agency, he's thinking the draft could continue the trend of teams valuing the interior.

Our rankings certainly bear out that possibility. There are six interior offensive linemen in our top 32. Our most recent mock draft only has three of them, Oregon's Jackson Powers-Johnon (No. 20), Washington's Troy Fautanu (No. 21) and Duke's Graham Barton (No. 31), going in the first round.

It's not a huge stretch to believe that at least one more will sneak into the first round and tie the 2022 total.

B.S. Meter: 1

For most of the pre-draft season, Marvin Harrison has been widely accepted as the top wide receiver in this draft class. The Ohio State receiver probably would have been a top 10 pick if he was able to declare last year.

However, just over a month away from the draft there's been some chatter that Harrison isn't the top receiver on everyone's board.

Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Media recently took to X to say that he "wouldn't be shocked" if Malik Nabers is the first receiver off the board. The Athletic's Dane Brugler chimed in on the subject too, noting that "several teams" have had the LSU receiver as their top receiver since the season.

It certainly could be true that there are teams that have Nabers at the top of their board. It's important to remember that all 32 teams have a board and they are all customized to their parameters, needs and scheme fits.

However, it's important not to lose sight of just how good of a prospect Marvin Harrison Jr. is. B/R scout Derrik Klassen summed him up like this in his scouting report:

"Harrison is a slam-dunk prospect. He is a twitched-up athlete with polished route-running ability and elite ball skills. It's so easy to see how his game translates right away. Harrison would be an instant No. 1 WR for most offenses."

Klassen's only knock on Harrison Jr. is that he's a little bit limited as a YAC player due to his frame. Meanwhile, he has concerns about Nabers ability to "reliably win the ball through contact."

Both have the potential to be great wide receivers in the league, but Harrison is a little more pro-ready and a slight cut above.

B.S. Meter: 7

There are plenty of quarterback-needy teams heading into this year's draft and the New York Giants might consider themselves among that crowd.

Despite handing Daniel Jones a four-year, $160 million contract last year, there's buzz building that the Giants could be looking at this year's crop of passers. Specifically, the Giants could be looking to add Michigan's J.J. McCarthy.

SNY.TV's Connor Hughes recently gave an update on the Giants approach with the sixth pick, noting that all options are on the table and McCarthy is, "the player the Giants want" even after they signed Drew Lock in free agency.

The McCarthy-Giants fit is a questionable one to say the least. First, the Jones contract is a problem. They can get out of the contract next season with a dead cap charge of $22.2 million but doing so now would cost $69.3 million.

If McCarthy were a more sure thing. It would make some sense to draft him at six and deal with the awkward situation of keeping Jones around. However, McCarthy has a lot of questions for a quarterback a team would take with the sixth pick.

He checks in at No. 54 overall on our big board. B/R scout Derrik Klassen has concerns about McCarthy's arm and ability to make multiple types of throws.

"McCarthy is a one-speed thrower who struggles to layer throws in, particularly down the field and outside the numbers. That's going to severely limit the design of any offense with him at the helm."

In essence, McCarthy doesn't bring the same nuance to his throws that Maye has shown at North Carolina.

Ultimately, McCarthy is still a project. He just turned 21 in January. Coming from a run-heavy offense in Michigan there's a lot of projection to reach his ceiling right now. Reaching on a quarterback at No. 6 is how the Giants got to this spot in the first place.

B.S. Meter: 8

The wide receiver talent in the 2024 draft class has a shot to make history. The 2004 draft set the record for most receivers taken in the first round with seven, including Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald with the third overall pick.

According to ESPN's Jordan Reid, we could see this year's class match that number. He noted that demand at the position could be up after Mike Evans, Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman Jr. all stayed with their teams in free agency.

He also noted that he has first-round grades on five wide receivers with 11 more getting second-round grades. That's relatively in line with B/R's assessment. There are five receivers in the top 32 of the big board with another four making the top 50.

It's not hard to envision the class hitting seven. Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze are in our top eight. Brian Thomas Jr. is another shoo-in at No. 19. That means just three more need be taken in the first round.

Xavier Worthy probably punched a first-round ticket when he broke the combine record for fastest 40 time. Keon Coleman didn't light up the combine but has first-round film.

Our latest mock has those six going in the first round with Adonai Mitchell and Roman Wilson going with the 33rd and 34th picks.

B.S. Meter: 2

Visit B/R's NFL Scouting Department hub for scouting reports on all of the top prospects.