USMNT vs. Mexico: Top Storylines and Predictions for 2024 Nations League
The United States men's national team renews its rivalry with Mexico on Sunday in the third-ever Concacaf Nations League final.
Gregg Berhalter's side reached the championship match at AT&T Stadium through an extra-time win over Jamaica.
The Americans started slow in that contest and barely made it to extra time, but were saved by a 96th-minute own goal.
Mexico downed Panama in much easier fashion by way of a 3-0 win. El Tri had a two-goal lead at halftime and the match wrapped up before the final 20 minutes.
Mexico should enter the final with more confidence that it can win the Nations League final, but the USMNT owns a six-game unbeaten streak against its biggest rival.
USMNT Needs Much Better Start Than Semifinal Win
The USMNT conceded in the first minute against Jamaica and took a lot of time to recover from its slow start.
The American equalizer did not occur until the 96th minute and then Haji Wright generated two extra-time goals to move the team into the final.
The slow start from Berhalter's men should force a lineup alteration which could include the arrivals of Wright and Gio Reyna into the starting lineup.
Wright is the more in-form option than Ricardo Pepi or Folarin Balogun at forward. He has the most goals of the trio at the club level this season and he netted four goals in four games with Coventry City prior to the international break.
Reyna brings more creativity to the USMNT attack and he should be included from the start over Malik Tillman, who was a surprise starter on Thursday.
No matter which players start the Americans must produce a better 90-minute product to come home with their third straight Nations League crown.
Mexico Looking Gain Control Back in Rivalry
Mexico comes into Sunday with a six-game winless streak against the USMNT.
That run began in the first Nations League final in 2021 with an extra-time loss to Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie and Co.
Since then, El Tri lost the 2021 Concacaf Gold Cup final in extra time, one World Cup qualifier and the 2023 Nations League semifinals to the Americans.
Mexico produced a pair of scoreless draws during that stretch, one in a World Cup qualifier and another in a friendly in which not all of the first-team players on each side participated.
El Tri did win the 2023 Gold Cup with a win over Panama in the middle of that stretch and it has just four losses in its last 20 international games.
Mexico, as a program, is not in a total downslide, but the results against the USMNT have not been there in the last few years.
El Tri has the better collection of forwards, led by Hirving Lozano and Santiago Gimenez. Whichever forwards start must put the Americans under pressure in a similar manner as Jamaica did on Thursday.
Mexico needs a first-half goal to diminish the American confidence even more, and if that happens, it could finish off its first Nations League crown.
Prediction
Mexico 2, United States 1
Mexico is coming off the better performance in the Nations League semifinals.
El Tri is better rested than the Americans because it did not need extra time to finish off its opponent.
Mexico also has the better in-form strikers. Gimenez has 21 goals in the Eredivisie for Feyenoord, Lozano has the most experience of any forward on either roster and Julian Quinones has three straight double-digit goal seasons in Liga MX.
At their best, Mexico's forwards have better quality than the Wright, Pepi and Balogun and that could be the difference-maker in a tight contest in Texas.