Latest 2024 NFL Mock Draft Trends to Watch After Early Free Agency

High-end quarterbacks typically cause a butterfly effect during the NFL's predraft process.

As quarterback-starved teams start to zero in on their preferred targets, every other team is affected, whether it's another squad looking to address the game's most important position or others who are hoping specific prospects from other positional groups fall to them.

Projections continually evolve to better reflect the latest happenings. Pro day workouts, team visits and even prospects coming back from injuries can all play a part.

To get a gauge of how the breeze has shifted over the past month, Bleacher Report compared the March 2 consensus draft board from FantasyPros and the updated version of the NFL Mock Draft Database.

Over the last month, six significant changes have occurred throughout the bulk of this cycle's draft projections.

Throughout the predraft process, three quarterbacks have been widely expected to go off the board within the first three picks. The order of said quarterbacks has been in question, although it seems to be clarifying with three weeks left before the draft.

The Chicago Bears now seem like a virtual lock to take USC's Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick. There's still intrigue as to whom the Washington Commanders will take at No. 2, though. LSU's Jayden Daniels held a slight edge over UNC's Drake Maye in early March, but he should now be considered the overwhelming favorite.

"The signs continue to point to Jayden Daniels being the second overall pick," ESPN's Adam Schefter said on his podcast (h/t Full Press' George Carmi). "He seems like he's popular in the scouting community. He seems like he'd bring a lot of the attributes that the Commanders would like."

If Daniels goes to D.C., the New England Patriots will be up next at No. 3. They're likely thinking quarterback as well, according to MassLive's Mark Daniels, which would make them the favorite for Maye. If they don't take a quarterback in the draft, the Patriots will enter the 2024 season with Jacoby Brissett, Bailey Zappe and Nathan Rourke as their only options under center.

Brissett can be a rock-solid stopgap quarterback. But he isn't the long-term answer, particularly when New England is in position to select a legitimate top-of-the-first round quarterback prospect.

New Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh tends to build his teams through the trenches. He did so with all three of the Stanford Cardinal, San Francisco 49ers and Michigan Wolverines.

Previous expectations had him doing the same with the Chargers by selecting Notre Dame's Joe Alt with the fifth overall pick. It's hard to go against the grain, particularly when the coach tells reporters at the NFL owners meetings:

"If I asked you the question of what position group depends on no other position group to be good, but every other position group depends on them to be good, what position group is that? The offensive line. The offensive line doesn't need any other position group to be good, but every other position group relies on the offensive line to be good. The D-Line will be the ones to argue back, 'we don't need to the offensive line to be good.' Do you like when the offense has a 12-play drive and field position? Building that kind of offensive line is exciting."

However, the Chargers traded stalwart wide receiver Keenan Allen to the Chicago Bears for a fourth-round draft pick in mid-March and released Mike Williams ahead of free agency. Their wide receiver room now consists of Quentin Johnston, Josh Palmer, Derius Davis and Simi Fehoko.

While Alt could complete the Chargers offensive line by becoming Rashawn Slater's bookend, LSU's Malik Nabers is now the overwhelming favorite for this slot if the Chargers don't trade down.

Quarterback Justin Herbert is the Chargers' franchise centerpiece. They need to ensure he has a quality option to throw to when he drops back to pass. The offensive line as currently constructed can hold up.

Alt now regularly falls to the Tennessee Titans with the seventh overall pick in mock drafts, which would allow them improve upon last season's league-worst offensive line.

Three weeks ago, the Minnesota Vikings traded second- and sixth-round picks this year along with a 2025 second-round pick to the Houston Texans for this year's 23rd overall pick and a seventh-rounder. That suggested Minnesota is big-game hunting for a quarterback.

The Vikings could stand pat and target the likes of Washington's Michael Penix Jr. or Oregon's Bo Nix with one of their two first-round picks. However, a trade-up for Michigan's J.J. McCarthy is the far more likely course of action.

That's being reflected in numerous mock drafts, to the point where the national championship-winning quarterback is now the favored selection by the Vikings.

"I hear the Vikings are very interested in McCarthy," The Athletic's Bruce Feldman reported.

The 21-year-old prospect has basically been saddled as QB4 throughout the pre-draft process. Although he's clearly talented, the Wolverines never truly featured their passing attack. However, coaches seem to love his attitude and football intelligence.

"You could tell he was the alpha male on that team from a leadership standpoint," an anonymous coach told Feldman. "He was coached up well on how to make throws and make the decisions very fast. He throws very well on the run. He did have a really good O-line and a good defense, but we didn't think their wide receivers were great, and he made it all go."

Minnesota is the ideal landing spot for McCarthy because he would perfectly fit into the offensive scheme and can be coached up by three former quarterbacks in head coach Kevin O'Connell, offensive coordinator Wes Phillips and quarterbacks coach Josh McCown.

The New York Jets understand their window to win at the highest level is right now. General manager Joe Douglas has gone all-in to build around 40-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who is coming off a ruptured Achilles tendon. .

The Jets addressed their two biggest needs on offense with short-term solutions this offseason. They signed Mike Williams to a one-year deal to play opposite standout wide receiver Garrett Wilson, and they acquired right tackle Morgan Moses in a trade from the Baltimore Ravens, then signed left tackle Tyron Smith to a one-year deal in free agency.

However, Moses and Smith are both 33 or older, and the latter hasn't played more than 13 games since the 2015 season. Offensive tackle should still be on the table as a result. But the Jets are likely looking for more of a immediate impact from the 10th overall pick.

Georgia's Brock Bowers could be a massive upgrade for them at tight end. As such, he's now the consensus favorite for Gang Green. Tyler Conklin set a career-high last season with 621 receiving yards, yet he didn't find the end zone once.

Bowers is one of the best tight end prospects ever. He shouldn't even be completely looked at purely as a tight end based on how he can help a passing attack. His ability to make tough grabs over the middle and create after the catch is exceptional.

The Jets can still land a quality development offensive tackle prospect in the third round to learn from Smith and Moses. But the incoming tight end class is basically one-and-done with Bowers and then everyone else. In turn, New York could field its first Pro Bowl-caliber talent at tight end since Mickey Schuler in 1988.

The Denver Broncos are poorly positioned to find a legitimate replacement for previous starting quarterback Russell Wilson.

The Broncos' decision to release Wilson left them with a combined $85 million dead-cap hit over the next two seasons. Because of that, they should prioritize a quarterback on a rookie contract as the most logical path forward.

However, Denver owns the 12th overall pick and sits directly behind the Minnesota Vikings, who already may be positioning themselves to trade up for Michigan's J.J. McCarthy.

If the top four quarterbacks go off the board in the top 10, the Broncos must weigh the top remaining options. Washington's Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon's Bo Nix are next in line.

A potential trade-down to land either might favor Denver, though Penix may have solidified himself as an earlier-than-expected first-round option after an impressive pro day. Nix is often viewed as more of a second-round possibility.

Still, the Broncos can't get cute when trying to address the game's most important position. Plus, Nix's fit in Sean Payton's system seems ideal, which is likely why he's now the favorite to go to Denver.

"He's known a lot for what he and Drew Brees did together," the incoming signal-caller told ESPN's Robert Griffin III. "It was quick game, get the ball out, timing stuff that I love to do. That's what we did so great here at Oregon."

A 40-yard dash won't single-handedly make or break a prospect. But Xavier Worthy's record-setting 4.21-second effort at the NFL Scouting Combine turned heads, even if everybody in Indianapolis already knew he was one of the class' fastest players.

Others will look at the fact that he's a sub-170-pound wide receiver and write him off as another undersized, straight-line speedster who can't translate to the NFL.

Yes, he's fast. Yes, NFL teams fall in love with speed. No, he isn't just a track athlete playing football. Worthy is a legit talent who has the ability to snap off routes, get open and create after the catch.

Interestingly, Worthy wasn't a favorite first-round target for any NFL squad in March right after he blazed his 40. Since then, he crept his way into the mix as the consensus pick for the Kansas City Chiefs with the 32nd overall selection. Considering Rashee Rice's ongoing legal matters, another investment in a wide receiver beyond the free-agent addition of Marquise Brown may be a wise decision.

However, Worthy might not even be available at that spot.

The lightning-quick target already had predraft visits with the Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals and Baltimore Ravens. Each of those teams select between picks 15 and 30th overall.

While Worthy is regularly slotted to the Chiefs, other teams around the league are clearly enamored with what his speed can bring to an offense. The 32nd overall pick may be the floor for where he's ultimately drafted.