Contract Situations Most Likely to Impact 2024 NFL Draft Decisions

With the 2024 NFL draft set to kick off in a matter of days, it's still hard to know what to expect.

Each team has its own thoughts on how to construct a roster or manage the draft, but most team decision-makers will approach the draft with at least one eye on the future.

When it comes to planning for the future, contracts will always play a factor. Teams won't always use an early pick to prepare for an impending free agent, potential holdout or possible trade candidate. However, those situations can and often do impact a team's draft decisions.

Last year, for example, the Tennessee Titans drafted quarterback Will Levis and running back Tyjae Spears as Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry entered contract years.

Here, we'll examine the biggest contract situations that could impact 2024 draft decisions. We'll take a close look at each situation and the franchise-specific factors that could impact upcoming draft plans.

The Dallas Cowboys have been notoriously quiet in the early 2024 offseason, and the contract situations of quarterback Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb have played a role. Both are entering the final year of their respective deals, and both will be costly to re-sign.

"You have to hold money back if you want to have a realistic chance of signing those guys," executive vice president Stephen Jones told 105.3 The Fan (h/t Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk).

Pass-rusher Micah Parsons is also extension-eligible but can be under contract through 2025 via the fifth-year option.

Prescott has stated that he doesn't "necessarily" want to be the league's highest-paid quarterback while noting that negotiations haven't really begun. This means that Dallas is in very real danger of losing Prescott and/or Lamb in 2025—it can only franchise tag one.

This reality could impact the draft in a couple of ways. The Cowboys probably won't target a quarterback early in the draft, but they may look for insurance to add to a QB room that also features 2021 third overall pick Trey Lance. That could mean taking a flier on a prospect like Tulane's Michael Pratt or South Carolina's Spencer Rattler in the middle rounds.

It could also lead the Cowboys to aggressively pursue another offensive playmaker early in the draft. Trading up from No. 24 for a pass-catcher like Georgia tight end Brock Bowers, Washington receiver Rome Odunze or LSU wideout Brian Thomas Jr. would serve two purposes.

A,) It would provide some insurance in the event that a long-term deal can't be reached with Lamb. B.) It could help Prescott produce the individual numbers needed for the Cowboys to publicly justify signing him to a deal that, ultimately, does approach the top of the market.

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins requested a trade shortly after being given the franchise tag. However, he more recently stated that he does "anticipate" playing for the Bengals in 2024.

This means we might not see Cincinnati dealing Higgins in 2024, though a draft-day trade can't be taken entirely off the table. The Bengals, do, however, have a recent history of drafting with impending free agents in mind.

In 2021, for example, the Bengals used a first-round pick on safety Dax Hill. The following offseason, safeties Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell both departed in free agency. Cincinnati could very well consider dipping into a talented rookie receiver class early with the possibility of Higgins' 2025 departure looming.

The Bengals did exactly that in the B/R Scouting Department's latest mock draft, taking LSU's Brian Thomas Jr. with the 18th selection.

And letting Higgins walk could be the right long-term play for Cincinnati. The Bengals are already paying quarterback Joe Burrow top-of-the-market money, and No. 1 receiver Ja'Marr Chase is extension-eligible now.

It's hard to envision Cincinnati paying Burrow, Chase and Higgins on multi-year deals. It's even harder, though, to see the Bengals splitting up Burrow and his former LSU teammate, Chase.

The Bengals do have more pressing needs, of course. Their offensive line remains inconsistent at best, while their defense ranked just 31st overall last season. However, the contract situations of both Higgins and Chase wll likely have Cincinnati considering a wide receiver sooner than later.

The San Francisco 49ers continue to appear more interested in extending wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk—who is entering the final year of his contract—than trading him.

"When you're in a situation like we are where you've got a real good player who wants to be here and we want the player to be here extremely bad too, what I found with us it doesn't always happen right away," head coach Kyle Shanahan said, per ESPN's Nick Wagoner.

As of late March, though, San Francisco and Aiyuk were "not close" to an agreement, according to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo. If the two sides don't close the gap before the draft, the 49ers might consider drafting a potential replacement.

The reality is that until AIyuk is under contract, he remains a holdout candidate. The 49ers watched it happen with Deebo Samuel before finally getting an extension done in training camp. Drafting a receiver like Thomas, Florida State's Keon Coleman or Washington's Jalen McMillan at 31 overall would give San Francisco a Plan B at receiver.

it would also give the 49ers some leverage in contract talks while bolstering the receiver room with a rookie contract. And yes, it could ultimately lead to San Francisco trading Aiyuk—or perhaps Samuel—and replacing him with said rookie contract. In the big picture, it could be the most logical outcome.

The 49ers are already paying big money to Samuel and Christian McCaffrey. Quarterback Brock Purdy is entering Year 3 and can only be had on a rookie contract for two more seasons. San Francisco can use the franchise tag after that, but at some point, it will have to pay its quarterback.

If Purdy keeps leading the 49ers deep into the postseason, extending him at a bargain simply won't be feasible. At that point, paying two receivers on top-of-the-market deals won't be realistic either.

The Denver Broncos have a few big decisions to make over draft weekend, especially at quarterback. After releasing Russell Wilson and eating a $53 million 2024 cap hit, the Broncos need a quarterback and don't have a lot of financial flexibility to find one.

This could lead to Denver trading up from No. 12 overall to target a QB prospect like LSU's Jayden Daniels or Michigan's J.J. McCarthy. It could also cause head coach Sean Payton to consider lower-tier prospects like Rattler, Washington's Michael Penix Jr., and Oregon's Bo Nix.

Complicating matters is the fact that No. 1 receiver Courtland Sutton is holding out for a new contract,

According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, the Broncos "do not plan" to trade Sutton. However, his situation could impact their draft decisions regarding quarterbacks and receivers. Denver already traded away Jerry Jeudy this offseason, and if Sutton is a legitimate threat to force his way out, it could create a very unfavorable situation for a rookie quarterback.

Wilson's cap hit could make it hard to extend Sutton or add veterans to the receiver room—Denver has $17.9 million in cap space remaining. Improving the offensive supporting cast will be a lot easier in 2025, when Denver is projected to have $81.7 million available.

This could all lead to Denver waiting until next offseason to target a new franchise signal-caller it could also lead to the Broncos getting aggressive and trading up for a top receiver prospect like Odunze or LSU's Malik Nabers to get him on that rookie deal.

Securing an elite receiver prospect and pairing him with a Day 2 quarterback might be a far more attractive course of action to Payton than drafting a signal-caller early and then sticking him with one of the most underwhelming receiving corps in the league.

The latter strategy is how quarterbacks Mac Jones and Justin Fields ended up on the trade block instead of with lucrative second contracts.

Wilson and Fields both made their way to the Pittsburgh Steelers this offseason. Wilson signed on a one-year deal, while the Steelers inherited the remainder of Fields' rookie contract.

Unless Pittsburgh likes Fields enough to exercise his fifth-year option before he even suits up for the franchise, the former Chicago Bears starter is effectively coming in on a one-year deal.

This means that the Steelers have one year to decide whether Wilson and/or Fields can become a long-term answer at the game's most important position. Because of this, Pittsburgh may take a heavy offensive approach to the draft in an effort to support their new signal-callers.

Two positions stand out for the Steelers entering draft week. Pittsburgh released starting center Mason Cole early in the offseason and traded wide receiver Diontae Johnson. The 2024 class is deep with both interior-line prospects and receivers, but the Steelers could get aggressive in addressing both positions.

If, for example, Pittsburgh covets Thomas, the fourth-ranked receiver on the Bleacher Report Scouting Department's draft board, it may look to jump a team like Cincinnati to land him. It could take a similar approach at center, if there's a prospect they prefer.

The Steelers snapped up Duke's Graham Barton in the latest B/R Scouting Department mock.

Pittsburgh's need for an improved offensive cast could also lead to some draft-day wheeling and dealing. According to Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Steelers "have wanted" to pair George Pickens with a big-time veteran receiver and have pursued Aiyuk on the trade market.

Barring a Russell Wilson-esque Band-Aid rip, the Arizona Cardinals can't feasibly part with quarterback Kyler Murray until 2026. He has $111.4 million in dead money remaining on his contract now and will have $63.1 million remaining next offseason.

"Head coach Jonathan Gannon i eager to win with Murray, not replace him.

"As a person, as a teammate, as a competitor, I absolutely love," Gannon said, per CBS Sports' Jeff Kerr. "Like saddle me up, let's go."

Right now, though, the Cardinals might not have a supporting cast with which Murray can win. Marquise Brown departed in the offseason, and Michael Wilson is their most productive returning wideout—he had 565 yards in 2023. Outside of Trey McBride and James Conner, the Cardinals just don't have many reliable playmakers.

And as Murray enters the expensive portion of his contract, adding more from veteran player pools won't be easy. Murray's cap hit will jump from $16 million in 2023 to $49.1 million this year. It will remain above $40 million for the next four years.

This could heavily impact Arizona's decision on whether to use the fourth overall pick on a receiver like Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. or to trade the selection—assuming the Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders and New England Patriots all draft quarterbacks to kick off the draft.

Teams expect the Cardinals to try trading back, according to Fowler, but Harrison's appeal could be too great to ignore.

Harrison is the top prospect on the B/R board at any position, and he has perennial All-Pro potential. The Cardinals aren't likely to find a prospect of his caliber in future drafts, and they could have a hard time chasing one on the free-agent or trade markets because of Murray's growing salary.

Arizona is sure to get some enticing offers from quarterback-needy teams. The Cardinals could choose to rebuff them all in order to help their highly-paid quarterback play up to his contract.

Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson is scheduled to play on the fifth-year option in 2024. An extension would most likely make him the league's highest-paid receiver, topping Tyreek Hill's $30-million-per-year deal.

Like Lamb and Sutton, Jefferson is holding out of voluntary offseason activities as he seeks a new deal.

There's a chance, however slight, that the Vikings offer to trade Jefferson during the draft and find a cheaper alternative. This is the same franchise—though a different front office—that moved off of Stefon Diggs after he had consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns for the first time in his career and then immediately drafted Jefferson.

Jordan Addison's impressive 2023 rookie campaign does at least provide a bit of a succession plan.

More realistically, however, Jefferson's looming extension will impact Minnesota's pursuit of a quarterback. The Vikings have already acquired the 23rd pick from the Houston Texans, and with picks No. 23 and 11, they're poised to aggressively pursue one of the top prospects.

Coming away with a high-end rookie quarterback could be critical for the Vikings if they do intent to extend Jefferson. Landing, say, Maye or McCarthy would give Minnesota a rookie quarterback contract around which to build for the next five seasons.

Daniels, for what it's worth, has "intrigue" in Minnesota, according to Fowler.

By the time Minnesota has to pay said quarterback, Jefferson will be approaching his age 30 season and could, theoretically, be on the decline. Factoring in Addison's rookie contract, the Vikings could have a four-year window with their quarterback and top-two receivers if they draft a signal-caller now.

This financial reality could make Minnesota even more eager to make an aggressive QB play this weekend rather than wait until the 2025 draft or pursue an impending free agent like Wilson or Prescott next offseason.