UFC 302 Main Card Staff Predictions

UFC 302 is just around the corner.

The card goes down this Saturday in Newark, New Jersey, and it feels like one of the biggest of the year so far.

Headlining honours will go to a lightweight title fight, with fan-favorite contender Dustin Poirier getting what is most likely his last crack at a UFC belt against the sport's pound-for-pound king, Islam Makhachev.

In the co-headliner, former middleweight champion Sean Strickland will look to bounce back from his hotly debated title loss to Dricus Du Plessis in a fight with hard-charging Brazilian Paulo Costa, who will be looking to rebound from a loss to Robert Whittaker.

The middle bout of the main card will see welterweight contender Kevin Holland head back up to middleweight for a fight with Michal Oleksiejczuk. That will be preceded by a pair of welterweight bouts, with Alex Morono rematching Niko Price, and Randy Brown taking on Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.

Keep scrolling for another round of pre-fight predictions from the B/R combat sports squad.

Haris Kruskic: "Dustin Poirier jumps the gilly! Islam Makhachev taps! It's all over!" Is what I hope to hear on Saturday for one of the most earth-shattering moments in UFC history.

However, I'm a pragmatist. What I want and what's reality are very different things. The reality is Makhachev has been the most dominant lightweight since his now coach, Khabib Nurmagomedov, decided to call it a career. Meanwhile, Poirier may have one foot out the door as he openly mulls retirement. It just doesn't feel like a good mix.

Makhachev by submission, Rd. 2

Tom Taylor: All of the information available suggests Islam Makhachev will beat Dustin Poirier this Saturday. The champ is as good or better than Khabib Nurmagomedov, who manhandled Poirier in 2019, and he seems to have the skills to finish this one on the mat and on the feet.

But unlike Haris, I just can't pick against "The Diamond." Ever since I watched Max Holloway KO Justin Gaethje at UFC 300, I have felt like there is magic in the air. Holloway wasn't supposed to win that fight, but he did it in style, endearing himself to the few remaining fight fans who weren't already among his supporters. I can't shake the feeling that something similar will happen for Poirier this weekend—something totally improbable, and incredibly dramatic.

You can see where I'm going with this. Yes, that's right. I think this will be the fight where Poirier finally succeeds on a guillotine choke, and he'll finally win an undisputed title in the process.

Poirier by submission, Rd. 2

Lyle Fitzsimmons: If there's not at least a small part of you that hopes for Poirier to find a way to spring the upset, you may not have a soul. But you're probably right. Because finding a path to victory against Benoit Saint-Denis is one thing. Beating a prime Makhachev is quite another. I'll be pulling hard in the other direction, but I won't be at all surprised when it gets to the ground and the "Diamond's" luster is dimmed.

Makhachev by submission, Rd. 3

Haris Kruskic There's very little reason to get behind Paulo Costa in this one. He has one win in the last four years and that came against semi-retired Luke Rockhold. The dominant contender we knew back in 2019 just isn't there.

Sean Strickland isn't flashy, but still more than effective with his relentless jabs and Philly Shell defense. A win here will likely set up a rematch with either Dricus Du Plessis or Israel Adesanya.

Strickland by unanimous decision

Tom Taylor: Paulo Costa didn't get the win in his recent fight with Robert Whittaker, but I think that was about as good as he's ever looked. If he has hit a new level, he can definitely beat Strickland, who is really not as good as his 2023 upset win over Israel Adesanya implied.

Still, I don't feel like Costa can be counted on. When he actually makes it to the Octagon, he is prone to underperforming, and if he's anything less than perfect, he's in for a rough night on Saturday. I see him pounding on Strickland for a round or two, only to be broken down by the former champion's suffocating, high-volume striking.

I don't think Strickland has the power to knock Costa out, but I do think the Brazilian will be way down on the scorecards by the time this five-round co-main event is up.

Strickland by unanimous decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons: As much regard as I have for Poirier, I have that little for the comprehensively tone-deaf Strickland. But he's just as likely to leave me disappointed against Costa, who's gotten more mileage out of a thin resume than most. It doesn't figure to be a barn-burner but it should be a win for the former champ and a prelude to bigger events to come later this year.

Strickland by unanimous decision

Haris Kruskic: Kevin Holland returns to middleweight after nearly three years at 170 pounds. He'll take on Michal Oleksiejczuk who is coming off a 61-second loss to Michel Pereira in March.

I'm taking Holland because his striking is good enough to rattle his Polish opponent early. Oleksiejczuk struggles when faced with resistance. Don't expect 'Big Mouth' to blink.

Holland by unanimous decision

Tom Taylor: This is a great fight. Holland is one of the more entertaining fighters on the UFC roster, and has proven he can hang with the best at welterweight and middleweight. Oleksiejczuk, a former light heavyweight, hasn't fought quite the same level of opposition of late, but has a lot of experience against very game opponents, and believe it or not, actually has more knockout wins than Holland despite having fewer fights.

Somebody is hitting the deck in this one. The only reason I'm picking Holland to win is because I think he's more durable than Oleksiejczuk, but I'm not confident.

Holland by KO, Rd. 1

Lyle Fitzsimmons: It's another installment of "2020 sure was a long time ago" when it comes to Holland, who broke through with five wins on the COVID-addled calendar but is just 4-6 with a no contest since while working the welterweight/middleweight corridor. He's still a few tiers higher here, though, and ought to do no worse than a clear scorecard win.

Holland by unanimous decision

Haris Kruskic: This might be the toughest fight on the card to call. Randy Brown has won six of his last seven fights, only losing to Jack Della Maddalena in that stretch. Elizeu Zaleski, although not nearly as active as his opponent in recent years, has some quality wins

on his resume vs. Sean Strickland and Benoit Saint-Denis.

I'll go with the younger, more agile Brown to squeak by.

Brown by split decision

Tom Taylor: Randy Brown has always been a solid welterweight, but until he knocked out Muslim Salikhov in his last fight, he has never shown much in the way of KO power. If Brown has finally discovered his knockout power, I think he will be able to take Zaleski down. The Brazilian is 37, and has been through some tough fights over the course of his career. He's right at the point where things start to get ugly.

Brown by TKO, Rd. 3

Lyle Fitzsimmons: No question this is a toughie. Both guys have been on winning runs lately. Brown is younger, taller and longer. Zaleski has the better quality of opposition bases covered. The latter means more to me here. Fourteen KOs in 24 wins, including a stoppage of Strickland, speak loudly to me, as does a decision over Saint Denis.

Zaleski by split decision

Haris Kruskic: Alex Morono may not possess jaw-dropping physical attributes, but he's an underrated fighter with a lot of technique to his game. 6-2 in his last eight fights, Morono has great fight IQ in addition to his well-rounded striking and ground work.

Although Niko Price did beat Morono in 2017 before it was ruled a No Contest due to Price's failed drug test, he's not the same fighter from seven years ago. Price looked slow and stiff in his last fight vs. Robbie Lawler and just hasn't been active enough to try and correct that.

Expect Morono to get some revenge on Saturday.

Morono by unanimous decision

Tom Taylor: I'm with Haris on this one. Price may have had some success against Morono in their first meeting, but he's been much less consistent in the time since, and has absorbed some pretty hellacious beatings in the last few years too. In 2024, I think Morono comes out on top, but this should be a fun fight either way, and I'm actually not mad it replaced Jailton Almeida vs. Alexandr Romanov on the main card. Nothing stinks up a pay-per-view like two exhausted heavyweights mashing each other into the fence for three rounds.

Morono by unanimous decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons: The high school from which Price graduated is about five miles from where I'm sitting, so this one's being written from the epicenter of support for the popular veteran. But an objective look at the record shows a 3-6 run with a no contest across his last 10 bouts, with five of the losses by KO. That's a red flag to these eyes. Morono's no champ but he's been running better lately.

Morono by unanimous decision