2024 Paris Olympics: Bold Player and Finals Predictions for Team USA Men's Basketball

After narrowly pulling out a 95-91 victory against Serbia on Thursday, the Team USA men's basketball squad will face France in the 2024 Olympics gold-medal round Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET.

How is it all going to shake out?

That sound you hear is our crystal ball whirring to life.

Rest assured, it has been thoroughly dusted, disinfected, recalibrated and spattered with inarguable accuracy-scented air freshener. Now, with a fifth straight Olympics gold medal on the line for Team USA, and with the force known as Victor Wembanyama standing in wait, it's ready to spit out some totally on-the-money predictions.

In case you haven't heard from perpetually disgruntled people on the internet, both Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum racked up their second DNP of the tournament on Thursday.

That won't happen again.

I think.

Head coach Steve Kerr has made it a point to not dole out consecutive DNPs since the start of the Group Stage. That trend should continue. Then again, it's not a given.

Kerr noticeably tightened up his rotation in a come-from-behind win against Serbia. Another close call could fuel similar decision-making, in which case Haliburton more than anyone else will be at risk of riding the pine all game. On the flip side, a blowout victory paves the way for Kerr to empty the bench and ensure all 12 of Team USA's stars get minutes.

Not that France will go quietly. I actually don't think they will. (More on this soon.) But even if things are close, this matchup lends itself to some across-the-board experimentation.

Anthony Edwards is coming off a performance to forget versus Serbia. Could he be on a shorter rope? Will Team USA redistribute some of the frontcourt minutes against a big-man rotation headlined by Victor Wembanyama and, potentially, Rudy Gobert? Might Kerr be more inclined to trim the early minutes for LeBron James and Stephen Curry after they both cleared 30 on Thursday?

For whatever reason, under whatever circumstances, everyone on Team USA will see action.

Foul trouble limited Anthony Davis to barely 10 minutes against Serbia. Even if he faces the same number of whistles, expect his playing time to skyrocket.

Joel Embiid's performance against Serbia no doubt complicates matters. He has never looked more at home on this roster. Thursday was nothing if not proof of concept for why he's here.

But France poses a different kind of test. That test's name is Victor Wembanyama.

Though Embiid held his own on some possessions in which he faced Wemby during the lone NBA regular season meeting between them, he's not the ideal archetype to go up against him.

Sure, if you're in the market for someone to overpower him on offense, Embiid is perfect. But you also need to defend him—or at least try to defend him. And if you were to formulate a variety of different Wemby-stopper options in the lab, at least a couple of them would end up looking like AD.

Granted, Team USA doesn't necessarily have to choose between these two options. They have leaned on plenty of dual-big minutes during these Olympics. And France, on paper, is a team that could demand they turn to them even more.

Except France isn't currently counting on a Twin Towers setup to get by. Rudy Gobert has tallied a combined nine minutes in the knockout round. Is this because he may have undergone surgery on his left ring finger? Or is it because France head coach Vincent Collet believes the team is better off with less of him (and Evan Fournier)?

Regardless of the rationale, it doesn't seem like Team USA will need to be especially reliant on dual-big combos, specifically the AD-Bam Adebayo tandem. (This stands to change if Guerschon Yabusele goes kaboom.) And if that's the case, Davis should be the runway favorite to be the most featured of the three centers.

Stephen Curry erupted for 36 points on 12-of-19 shooting (9-of-14 from deep) against Serbia, a final line that included scoring 14 of Team USA's first 15 points and notching 17 overall in the first quarter.

Let's go ahead and assume he leads the way yet again.

This particular prediction isn't a no-brainer. Curry's scoring has fluctuated so far. Look at his lines in the first four games:

• Group Stage Game No. 1 (versus Serbia): 11 points, 4-of-8 shooting (3-of-7 on threes)
• Group Stage Game No. 2 (versus South Sudan): 3 points, 1-of-9 shooting (0-of-6 on threes)
• Group Stage Game No. 3 (versus Puerto Rico): 8 points, 3-of-8 shooting (2-of-6 on threes)
• Knockout Round Game No. 1 (versus Brazil): 7 points, 2-of-6 shooting (0-of-1 on threes)

Curry's detonation against Serbia is an outlier. The gold medal game could just as easily see LeBron James or Kevin Durant or Devin Booker or Anthony Edwards—or someone else go off.

And yet, Team USA's offense has often looked at its best when Curry is flying around the court, whether he's off the ball, on the ball or getting off the ball only to get back on the ball. Given how inconsistent the squad's chaos attack in transition continues to be, this group has no business getting away from the "Leverage Steph to infinity and beyond" approach.

Equally important, Curry will likely be draped by some combination of Isaia Cordinier and Frank Ntilikina. KD, meanwhile, feels like a lock to draw the wrath of Victor Wembanyama more than anyone else. I'll let you decide which matchup is more doable.

This still leaves the door open for LeBron, Ant, Book or someone else. But LeBron continues to pick and choose his spots. And Booker deserves kudos for continuing to embrace (and thrive in) accessory duty, a concession that can lead to a shot-volume deficit.

Edwards is probably the best alternative bet to lead the scoring attack (non-KD division). He turned in two brilliant performances against Puerto Rico (26 points) and Brazil (17 points). But he's more liable to get lost in the shuffle if he's not on the ball. And more than that, he doesn't have the same runway as Steph from Steve Kerr to work through potential shooting struggles.

With all due respect to France's roster and its body of work, Team USA is going to win its fifth consecutive Olympics gold medal.

This will be a "Well, duh" prediction in the eyes of many. But if you watched Team USA's exhibitions and their near-miss versus Serbia, you understand a victory isn't a completely airtight formality.

Slow starts have ailed this group in virtually every game. Its shot-making variance can verge on turbulent. The collective defensive motor doesn't just wax and wane; it vanishes for long stretches at a time. Criticism of Steve Kerr is inevitable. Is it justified? Who knows. But he will invariably make a rotation decision or two that elicits profanity-laden invective.

What version of Joel Embiid are we getting? And Anthony Edwards? And even Stephen Curry? Are the squad's turnover woes finally in the rearview? And, oh yeah, will they effectively limit Wemby?

Team USA is not without its questions and concerns. But it is also mind-meltingly talented.

That's not always enough. Flipping switches is dangerous business. It almost cost Team USA against Serbia. A gap between the U.S. and the rest of the world persists, but it's not the galaxy-wide chasm from once upon a time.

However!

There's something to be said about trailing by as many as 17 points against Serbia, for more than 35 minutes of a 40-minute game, and still coming out on top. This group is special—not perfect, not beyond critique, but dominant in its ability to prevail amid its flaws.

Collectively, as a country, we should all be uncomfortable with how dependent Team USA's star-stacked roster has become upon a 39-year-old LeBron James.

But we're not.

Instead, he is a source of comfort, the embodiment of certainty for a group that promises very little even as it refuses to lose.

No, LeBron is not always on. Especially when it comes to defense. But his selective attack mode is timely, and everything he does is indispensable.

Sometimes, his body of work flies under the radar. Everyone watching understood the gravity of his high moments versus Serbia. But his recording a triple-double (16 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists) became a footnote. Yours truly didn't even realize he had one until after the final buzzer.

No matter, though. That's just LeBron being LeBron. And all these years later, LeBron being LeBron amounts to a lifeline. Never mind that he's on a roster teeming with peers, both new and old. He still leads Team USA in points, rebounds, assists and minutes per game.

When it's all said and done, LeBron will (rightfully) be named MVP.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.

Unless otherwise cited, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac. Draft-pick obligations via RealGM.