6 Players Who Are Going Too Early in Fantasy Football Drafts Right Now
Fantasy football drafts are just as much about avoiding picks that will torpedo your lineup as it is uncovering the high-upside league winners.
It's difficult to build a championship roster on draft day when you'll spend multiple weeks on the waiver wire making up for a blown pick.
With that being said, it's important to examine current ADP figures and identify those who might be going too early in drafts right now. Drafting well is all about finding values and constructing rosters in the most efficient way possible while avoiding players who aren't going to live up to their draft stock.
As we look across the current ADP landscape, there are a few players who stick out as being potential reaches. Whether it's because their market share is being overestimated, they are in a poor scheme or simply set up to underwhelm, these players are being drafted too highly and should be avoided at their current cost.
Unless otherwise noted, ADP data courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator for a 12-team PPR league. Fantasy scoring and target data courtesy of FantasyPros.
RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
ADP: 1.10
Why He's Going That Early
There are a few factors that are likely making Jonathan Taylor a first-round running back. Some managers aren't going to come out of the first round without a running back. Draft trends have changed, but there will be an old school contingent that just won't take a receiver over a running back.
The other factor is Taylor has more command over a backfield than anyone else in the league on paper. Trey Sermon, Tyler Goodson and Zavier Scott are next up on the depth chart. None are threats to take away serious touches from Taylor.
Why It's Too Early
Taylor is just not someone you want to anchor your team to at this point. Injuries have forced him to miss large chunks of time in each of the last two seasons. When he's been on the field he hasn't been as explosive. he averaged 5.5 and 5.8 yards per touch in each of his first two seasons. The last two years those numbers have gone down to 4.6 and 4.8.
This ADP doesn't seem to take into account the impact that Anthony Richardson could have on Taylor's high-value touchdes inside the 10. Jalen Hurts ran for 10 touchdowns while Miles Sanders had zero in Shane Steichen's first year as offensive coordinator for the Eagles.
The split won't likely be that drastic, but Taylor living up to his first-round status is going to require touchdowns. If he splits those with Richardson he will not produce like a first-round pick.
WR Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: 2.11
Why He's Going That Early
This feels like an overreaction to Brandon Aiyuk's holdout situation. The Niners still haven't hashed out a new contract with their other star wide receiver and managers seem to be swinging the draft pendulum toward Deebo Samuel as a result.
Why It's Too Early
For one, it still feels like Brandon Aiyuk suiting up for the 49ers is still the most likely outcome. 49ers general manager John Lynch just acknowledged there's "an urgency" to keep him and that's usually what it takes to get a deal done.
Assuming Aiyuk comes back, Samuel is set to see the continued trend of fewer targets. Samuel has seen a decrease in targets over the last two seasons which coincides with Aiyuk's emergence within Kyle Shanahan's offense.
Even if Aiyuk were to be traded, it isn't like his targets would just transfer over to Samuel. Aiyuk is the team's best man coverage beater while Samuel's win rate against man is 114th in the league, per PlayerProfiler. They are very different players and Samuel wouldn't benefit as much one might think from Aiyuk being out of the picture.
RB Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ADP: 3.05
Why He's Going That Early
It's kind of easy to see why Rachaad White is going in the middle of the third round, especially in PPR formats. He finished with the fourth-most points of all running backs last season so finding him in the third round is going to feel like a steal to some.
Why It's Too Early
Because context matters. White's fantasy success in 2023 was driven by volume. He was second in the league in carries, ninth in targets and fourth in weighted opportunities, per Player Profiler. The problem is that he was dreadfully inefficient with all those touches and opportunities. He averaged 3.6 yards per carry and was 47th in breakaway run rate.
Some of that could be chalked up to the Buccaneers offensive line, but they still have questions up front. Cody Mauch and Ben Bredeson are on track to start at the two guard spots and they were ranked 74th and 75th respectively by PFF last season.
The Bucs drafted Bucky Irving in the fourth round and head coach Todd Bowles is already talking about his running ability between the tackles and the burst that he brings to the table. He's going to take away the volume that made White a sneaky-good option every week last season.
TE Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
ADP: 4.05
Why He's Going That Early
Mark Andrews is currently the third tight end off the board in drafts and the only one with a fourth-round ADP. There's a name recognition element to the ADP. Andrews has been one of the first tight ends off the board for a few seasons now. The Ravens lack of moves to build receiver depth certainly makes it an easier sell to take Andrews early.
Why It's Too Early
Things have changed in the Ravens offense. Todd Monken took over as offensive coordinator last season and opened things up after years of Greg Roman calling his brand of offense with multiple tight ends.
Andrews was a lesser part of the offense even before suffering an ankle injury that ended his season. After averaging nine targets in 2021 and 7.5 in 2022. He was down to just 6.1 targets per game last season.
Using a fourth-round pick on a tight end should be reserved for those who are going to be the primary receiver on their team. With Monken opening the offense and fellow tight end Isaiah Likely he could be a reliable target last season it's hard to see Andrews drawing the targets to warrant the early selection.
RB James Conner
ADP: 4.11
Why He's Going That Early
James Conner going at the end of the fourth round in fantasy drafts is a great example of the dreaded "running back dead zone" that managers want to avoid. The end of the fourth traditionally starts that run on running backs that typically don't live up to their ADP.
The temptation to take him starts with the fact that he was a viable starter in 2023. He finished 18th overall in PPR scoring and was dominant down the final stretch with Kyler Murray. He finished as a top five back in four of his last five games of the season.
Why It's Too Early
It's tempting to look at that finish and believe that Conner might actually be a steal at his current price. But it's important to remember that five games is still a tiny sample size and you have to consider the big picture when deciding whether or not to target him at this price.
Ultimately, Conner is going be 29 years old this season. Injuries have typically kept him out of at least a few games. He's only played more than 13 games in a year twice in his career. The Cardinals also drafted Trey Benson in the third round.
His presence should hamper Conner's fantasy stock, especially as the season wears on. Benson was one of the top backs in this year's draft class. It's not a stretch to believe he'll be the starter by the time the fantasy playoffs arrive.
QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
ADP: 5.03
Why He's Going That Early
C.J. Stroud is being drafted as QB5 right now. A lot of that probably has to do with the Texans adding Stefon Diggs to their receiving corps after the rookie season that Stroud put together in 2024. There are a lot of reasons to be positive about the Texans and their offense moving into the new season. That sentiment seems to have bled into the fantasy football world with drafters scooping up Stroud early in the fifth round.
Why It's Too Early
This appears to be a classic case of conflating real-world success with fantasy football scoring. Stroud put together a great rookie season. He still only had five games where he finished as a top-10 fantasy football quarterback and one of those was in Week 18 when most people were done playing.
The fifth-round is still an early time to target a quarterback for those who like to load up at receiver and running back early. It's hard to go with a quarterback with limited rushing upside If you're going to use one of those early picks at the position. Stroud had 167 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground last season. It's not really his game to build on those numbers.
It's going to be hard for Stroud to justify that ADP purely through passing stats. Fantasy managers are going to be disappointed at that price even if Stroud is able to lead the Texans to actual football glory.