NFL Picks 2024: Early Week 2 Odds to Exploit after Final Week 1 Results

Week 1 may have just ended with a Monday night matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and New York Jets, but Week 2 is already on the horizon.

Heading into the second week of the season, overreactions to Week 1 can run rampant. The Cincinnati Bengals, for example, will likely rebound, even if their loss to the rebuilding New England Patriots was concerning.

Cincinnati simply had too many mistakes in a game that involved a new offensive coordinator, an absent star receiver (Tee Higgins), and another top wideout (Ja'Marr Chase) coming off of no preseason prep. Conversely, the Patriots aren't going to stun every team they come across in 2024.

The good news is that Week 1 overreactions can lead to exploitable betting opportunities, some of which we will examine here.

*Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook

It's not hard to overreact to the Dallas Cowboys' 33-17 dismantling of the Cleveland Browns in Week 1. Dallas' defense absolutely bullied the Browns, forcing mistake after mistake and consistently pressuring quarterback Deshaun Watson.

This doesn't mean, however, that the Dallas defense will be as dominant against the New Orleans Saints in Week 2.

Cleveland was playing without either of its starting offensive tackles, and Watson didn't see any action during the preseason. The Cowboys may also have had a coaching advantage, as Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski formerly served under Mike Zimmer when Zimmer was the Minnesota Vikings head coach.

Derek Carr and the Saints offense, meanwhile, seem to have found new life under new coordinator Klint Kubiak. While it did come against the lowly Carolina Panthers, New Orleans scored 47 points on Sunday and scored on its first nine drives.

The Saints also have a solid defense, one that ranked eighth in points allowed last season.

While Dallas' defense shined in Week 1, its offense was more good than great (265 yards, 4-of-14 on third down), so this has the potential to be a fairly even matchup. The Cowboys are likely to win, of course—they were undefeated at home in 2023—but this is a large line that already began to shrink on Monday.

The Los Angeles Chargers didn't exactly dominate the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1, even if the 22-10 final score might indicate otherwise. L.A. used efficient defense and a strong running game to methodically pull away from its division rival.

A heavy dose of running back J.K. Dobbins and a few timely throws from quarterback Justin Herbert allowed the Chargers to eventually pull away.

That's a strategy that should work against the Panthers in Week 2, even if the road trip is potentially problematic.

Fans shouldn't expect to see the Chargers offense race up and down the field as New Orleans did in Week 1. However, it should consistently find running room against a Panthers defense that won't have standout defensive tackle Derrick Brown on the field.

"A league source confirmed to ESPN that Brown will undergo surgery to repair an apparent meniscus injury," ESPN's David Newton wrote on Monday.

L.A.'s defense should more than hold its own against Carolina's offense, which continues to look lost with quarterback Bryce Young under center. Young had a dreadful 2024 debut, completing just 13 of 30 pass attempts for 161 yards with two interceptions.

As long as the 2023 first overall pick continues to perform like a bottom-five quarterback, the Panthers will continue to be heavy underdogs. At this point in the week, the opposition isn't being favored heavily enough.

2024 first overall pick Caleb Williams won his NFL debut, helping the Chicago Bears record a 24-17 win over the Tennessee Titans. However, Chicago's offense wasn't as magical as the final score might seem to indicate.

Williams threw for just 93 yards, while the offense only produced a trio of Cairo Santos field goals. Chicago's two touchdowns came via a blocked punt and an interception return.

The Bears will have to be much better offensively to hand with C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans in Week 2. Stroud, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon and the rest of the Texans offense decimated the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, allowing Houston to win a 29-27 track meet.

Yes, Houston's defensive performance is a tad concerning here, but its offense is clearly clicking. The same can't be said for Williams and the Bears just yet, which could be a problem for Chicago in prime time.

The Texans will have their home opener under the bright lights of Sunday Night Football, and that should give them a big edge against a rookie quarterback still adapting to the speed and nuances of the pro game.

Williams should get progressively better as the 2024 season moves along, but Houston has already arrived as a contender. This line is very likely to increase throughout the week.

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