NFL Picks 2024: Early Week 4 Odds to Exploit after Final Week 3 Results

The third week of the 2024 NFL season wrapped with a Monday night doubleheader. As was the case in the first two weeks, Week 3 featured its fair share of surprises.

Few likely predicted that the San Francisco 49ers would lay an egg for the second straight week or that benching Bryce Young would turn the Carolina Panthers into an offensive machine.

We're still learning which teams are good and which are already eyeing 2025, and dissecting the landscape won't be a whole lot easier in Week 4.

That said, a few of the early lines do provide enticing opportunities for bettors. Based on what we've seen thus far in 2024, team health, emerging trends and matchups, let's dive into some lines that can be exploited in Week 4.

*Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook

This is a large line, considering the Denver Broncos just went on the road and rolled the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. However, there are two big reasons to back the New York Jets at home in this one.

For one, the Jets defense is more talented and healthier than Tampa's. The Bucs were without Vita Vea, Calijah Kancey and Antoin Winfield Jr. on Sunday, and they couldn't rattle rookie quarterback Bo Nix without those three.

New York's pass rush (14 sacks in three games) has found its groove and can force the rookie into mistakes. That will give the Jets a big advantage at home.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Jets offense have also found a rhythm, which is problematic for the Broncos. While Denver's defense may be able to slow No. 1 receiver Garrett Wilson, the Jets have other receiving options and aren't nearly as reliant on the pass as the Buccaneers are.

New York should only need the occasional big play from Rodgers against a defense that has surrendered 4.4 yards per carry this season. If all else fails, the Jets can lean on Breece Hall and Braelon Allen to grind out a convincing Week 4 victory.

This is a massive line, considering the San Francisco 49ers have flopped in two straight games. San Francisco never really got going against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 2, and its defense collapsed late against the Los Angeles Rams.

San Francisco also took the field without three of its best players—Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle—in Week 3.

However, the 49ers are now desperate, will be at home, and will be up against a New England Patriots team with serious offensive issues. New England's line is one of the shakiest in the league right now, and quarterback Jacoby Brissett has done nothing to elevate an underwhelming receiving corps.

Despite a putrid performance against the Jets last Thursday (98 passing yards, 5 sacks taken), Brissett is set to start again.

"Jacoby is our quarterback until I say he's not the quarterback," Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo told reporters.

Though it has shown serious flaws through the first three weeks, San Francisco's defense should rebound at home against the Patriots. The 49ers offense, meanwhile, should get enough out of Brock Purdy, Jordan Mason, Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings to win by multiple scores.

Expect this line to drift higher in the coming days.

The Rams, somehow, are even more banged-up than the 49ers. Receiver Puka Nacua, wideout Cooper Kupp, center Steve Avila and guard Jonah Jackson all missed Week 3 with injuries.

Yet, Los Angeles still notched an epic comeback victory thanks to some timely defense, some serious special-teams help and a stunning performance by quarterback Matthew Stafford.

The Rams scored 13 fourth-quarter points, benefited from a missed 49ers field goal and got a huge punt return to generate an improbable rally. However, L.A. can expect similar good fortune this week against the Chicago Bears.

Chicago boasts a top-10 defense, and it's beginning to see signs of life from rookie quarterback Caleb Williams and the offense. Williams tossed another pair of interceptions during the Week 3 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, but he also threw for 363 yards and two touchdowns.

The Rams defense isn't any better than Indianapolis', and it should allow Williams to build on his Week 3 performance. Chicago will still need the rookie to do a better job of protecting the football to pull out a win, but it feels like Chicago is due for another victory.

And after their emotional divisional win, it feels like the Rams are due for another letdown.

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