Week 5 NFL Picks 2024: Early Odds to Exploit after Final Week 4 Results

Week 4 wrapped with another Monday night doubleheader, and it feels like the NFL landscape is finally providing some clarity.

After the first three weeks were loaded with upsets, injuries and stunning results, Week 4 went largely as expected—with a couple of exceptions, of course.

Teams like the Houston Texans, San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers rebounded from Week 3 losses, while Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals finally claimed their first win of 2024.

While we still don't know exactly who this year's title contenders will be, we're starting to get an idea of which squads are better or worse than their records might suggest.

As we look ahead to Week 5, let's examine a few early lines that can be exploited.

*Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook

Divisional games can be dicey, especially on a short week. However, taking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the points against the Atlanta Falcons feels like a savvy play.

The Falcons showed a lot of resiliency while outlasting the New Orleans Saints on Sunday. However, Atlanta is still searching for an offensive identity a month into the 2024 season. The Falcons should be leaning into Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and the ground game more than they currently are.

Atlanta has attempted 90 rushing attempts and 119 passing attempts through four weeks.

Unless there's a seismic shift in offensive strategy, the Falcons are unlikely to fully exploit Tampa's biggest defensive weakness.

The Bucs, meanwhile, know exactly who they are on offense. Everything runs through Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and the passing game—though rookie back Bucky Irving has added some punch to the ground game.

Atlanta's pass defense has been just slightly above average, and Tampa should take advantage with another big night through the air.

Washington Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is off to a stellar start in the NFL. He's played spectacularly in each of his last three games, all wins, but Washington's success goes beyond the quarterback.

New head coach Dan Quinn has his team playing smart, efficient football, while a strong ground game and reliable offensive line play have aided Daniels tremendously. Washington's defense hasn't been great, but it showed signs of life during Sunday's 42-14 win over the Arizona Cardinals.

This week, the Commanders will host a Cleveland Browns team that appears lost. The Browns have no offensive identity, and their defense isn't the same shut-down unit we saw a year ago. Cleveland has been particularly susceptible to the run, which does not bode well for this matchup.

The Browns have numerous injuries along the offensive line—they were without their top tackles and guard Wyatt Teller on Sunday, then lost center Ethan Pocic—which is another massive problem against Washington.

The Commanders are poised to physically dominate the Browns at the point of attack, and Cleveland's stalling offense has little hope of keeping pace. Expect this line to move further in Washington's direction before the weekend.

Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams hasn't been as impressive as Daniels, but he did have a solid outing against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 4. A stronger commitment to the running game helped Chicago find offensive balance and helped take pressure off of the first-year signal-caller.

Williams' numbers (157 passing yards, 1 TD) weren't overly impressive, but he did finish with a 106.6 passer rating.

"He's got to keep improving every single week, but I do think that for him, the operation, honoring the football, taking care of the football is the No. 1 job of the quarterback—he did an excellent job of that today," Bears head coach Matt Eberflus said, per The Athletic's Kevin Fishbain.

The Bears have a chance to build some momentum against the Carolina Panthers this week. Carolina has been a more competitive team since turning to quarterback Andy Dalton, but it doesn't match up particularly well with Chicago's defense (18.75 points per game allowed).

The Panthers defense, meanwhile, has been susceptible to the run (4.6 yards per carry allowed), which should allow the Bears to continue with their run-heavy approach.

Neither of Chicago's wins this season have been dominant but the Bears are beginning to figure out a winning formula. The Panthers are still in that process.

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