Week 6 NFL Picks: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Box Score Bets

The 2024 NFL season continues to be an unpredictable adventure. The surprises have involved players and teams alike.

Middling teams like the Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots have already pulled off huge upsets this season. Meanwhile, players like Kareem Hunt and JuJu Smith-Schuster have emerged as unexpected playmakers.

Wagering has been a difficult task this year, and things are unlikely to get any easier in Week 6. However, fans can still find some attractive betting options based on the early week lines.

Here, we'll dive into a few Week 6 box score bets worth considering.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Mistakes—including a pair of Brock Purdy interceptions—cost the San Francisco 49ers in Week 5. With San Francisco now facing the rival Seattle Seahawks on a short week, expect the 49ers to try getting back to basics.

That should involve a heavy workload for running back Jordan Mason, who is -120 (bet $120 to win $100) to top 17.5 rushing attempts against Seattle. Mason did have a fumble in Week 5, but leaning on him may allow San Francisco to physically control Thursday's game.

"You know he can run through arm tackles," 49ers tackle Trent Williams said, per Grant Cohn of SI.com. "He runs hard, man. He runs hard."

Mason only saw 14 carries on Sunday, as San Francisco worked in rookie back Isaac Guerendo. That lighter workload, however, should allow Mason to see more carries against Seattle's 20th-ranked run defense on a short turnaround.

Over his first four games of the season, Mason averaged just under 23 carries and logged no fewer than 19 in a contest.

The Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars are -125 to score fewer than five combined touchdowns on Sunday morning. It's a play to like for a couple of reasons.

For one, the Bears have a terrific defense, one that has surrendered an average of only 17 points per game this season. While Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars appear to finally be finding an offensive rhythm, they're unlikely to rack up points against Chicago.

Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is also finding his groove. However, Chicago should look to lean on its defense and running game to grind out this one. While Jacksonville's 30th-ranked scoring defense isn't good, the Bears probably won't drop 36 points like they did on the Carolina Panthers in Week 5.

This game will be played in London, where sloppy play often makes an appearance. Expect this one to unfold similarly to last week's London game between the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings—a game that yielded 40 total points and four touchdowns.

For many of the reasons we just mentioned, we also like the under (-115) for Lawrence's total passing yards on Sunday morning. Jacksonville's offensive chemistry has been lacking for most of the season, though things clicked against the rival Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.

"I think it's always good to use these games to build confidence," Lawrence said, per ESPN's Michael DiRocco.

Lawrence threw for 371 yards against Indianapolis, though it should be noted that the Colts have the league's 30th-ranked pass defense. The Bears, by comparison, rank fifth in net yards per pass attempt allowed and sixth in passing yards allowed.

Chicago has surrendered 230 or more passing yards only once this season.

It's also worth noting that Week 5 marked the first time this season that Lawrence has topped 220 passing yards in a game. He hit that mark in Week 2 and has thrown for less than 200 yards in his other three outings this season.

Sunday's game between the Washington Commanders and Baltimore Ravens could be one of the most thrilling contests of the season to date. It will pit the reigning MVP, Lamar Jackson, against rookie sensation Jayden Daniels.

Of course, Jackson and Daniels won't be the only offensive playmakers involved. The game will also feature the likes of Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Terry McLaurin and Austin Ekeler. This one features a high over/under for total points, but it also has the potential to be a veritable track meet.

We like the over (-108) here because of the offensive potential and because neither team boasts a shut-down defense. Washington's defense has rounded into form over the last two weeks but still ranks 31st in yards per carry allowed, 17th in net yards per pass attempt allowed and 20th in points allowed.

Baltimore has been terrific against the run but ranks 27th in net yards per pass attempt allowed, 31st in passing yards allowed and 26th in points allowed.

Sunday's game between the Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals produced 79 total points, and this one may not fall far from that mark.

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