Week 8 NFL Picks 2024: Early Odds to Exploit after Final Week 7 Results
Week 7 brought plenty of intrigue to the NFL landscape. as likely contenders clashed in several games.
The Green Bay Packers outlasted the Houston Texans, while the Detroit Lions did the same against the rival Minnesota Vikings. The Kansas City Chiefs rolled the San Francisco 49ers in a highly-anticipated Super Bowl LVIII rematch.
The results tell us that a few dominant teams do exist in 2024, and that many more are very, very bad.
Based on what we've seen through the first seven weeks, let's take a look at some early lines for Week 8 that can potentially be exploited.
*Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook
Los Angeles Chargers -7.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints aren't necessarily a bad team. However, injuries have derailed New Orleans' season following a 2-0 start. The Saints were without starting quarterback Derek Carr and top receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed in last Thursday's 33-10 loss.
Shaheed is done for the year after undergoing knee surgery. Carr is unlikely to return in time for Week 8.
"I think that's questionable," head coach Dennis Allen said, per ESPN's Katherine Terrell. "I think it's certainly very likely for the following week."
Injuries have only been part of the problem, though. Penalties and poor tackling have undermined a once-promising defense, and New Orleans has been particularly bad against the run.
The Saints are allowing an average of 5.4 yards per carry in 2024.
Against JK Dobbins and the Los Angeles Chargers' physical ground attack, that's a massive problem. The Chargers have found a winning formula by leaning on their defense and the running game. The Saints don't match up well with that formula at all.
Expect Los Angeles to control the tempo early and get just enough out of Justin Herbert and the passing game to pull away late.
Green Bay Packers -5 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars picked up their second win of the season and did so convincingly in a 32-16 romp over the New England Patriots.
Of course, there are a couple of things to keep in mind about Jacksonville's latest victory. For one, the Patriots aren't good. Secondly, the Jags got a huge advantage by playing in London for the second straight week.
While Jacksonville will have home-field advantage in this one, that's likely to mean little against the surging Green Bay Packers. Quarterback Jordan Love is fully healthy, he's building chemistry with his young receiving corps, and Green Bay's defense is starting to round into form.
While Trevor Lawrence, Tank Bigsby and Brian Thomas Jr. may do enough to keep the game close for a bit, Jacksonville's defense isn't equipped to slow the Packers for a full four quarters.
This game should more closely mirror the 35-16 loss Jacksonville had against the Chicago Bears in Week 6 than its victory over the lowly Patriots.
Denver Broncos -7.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
The Denver Broncos aren't legitimate contenders just yet, but they're trending in the right direction. While rookie quarterback Bo Nix remains inconsistent, Denver's defense is elite, and the offense is starting to find an identity.
"We're figuring it out," head coach Sean Payton said, per NFL Media's Grant Gordon.
This week, the Broncos will host a Carolina Panthers team that has been flat-out bad, especially on defense. Carolina ranks 31st in yards allowed and 32nd in points allowed through seven weeks.
The Panthers offense has occasionally looked competent with Andy Dalton behind center, but it's unlikely to find much momentum against Denver's defense on the road. Carolina's defense is bad enough that Payton can use the game to build on the offensive success he saw in Week 7.
Add in the fact that Denver has had extra time to prepare for this one—it played the struggling Saints on Thursday night—and we're left with a fairly sizeable mismatch on paper.
Expect the Broncos to earn their third double-digit victory since the beginning of October.
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