Ranking Devin Williams' Top 10 Trade Landing Spots After Brewers Option Declined
So, how much longer before Devin Williams is an ex-Milwaukee Brewer?
The Brewers have already declined the two-time All-Star closer's $10.5 million club option for 2025. That move was originally reported on Sunday by ESPN's Jeff Passan, who labeled Williams as a trade candidate in the process:
Passan subsequently went one step further on Monday, reporting that executives say the 30-year-old is already "on the market."
None of this is surprising, though it has nothing to do with Williams being the guy who coughed up Game 3 of the Wild Card Series against the New York Mets. The Brewers tend to trade prized assets before free agency, and that moment awaits him after 2025.
After first assessing his trade value, let's speculate on potential landing spots and trade packages for Williams.
What Is Devin Williams' Trade Value?
In case anyone is still hung up on Pete Alonso getting to him for that three-run homer, it's worth clarifying that Williams is good.
He won the National League Rookie of the Year in 2020, and his performance hasn't wavered since then. Despite a scare with stress fractures in his back earlier this year, his last five seasons have seen him post a 1.70 ERA and fan 41 percent of the batters he's faced.
His "Airbender" changeup is firmly in the discussion of the best pitches in baseball. Since 2020, opposing batters have hit just .135 against it with a 46.5 whiff rate.
In lieu of the $10.5 million he would have made if the Brewers had picked up his option, MLB Trade Rumors projects Williams to make $7.7 million in arbitration. That is a discount for a reliever of his caliber, which is presumably the point where Milwaukee is concerned. The lower his salary, the more surplus value he has on the trade market.
To wit, Baseball Trade Values puts his surplus value at $11.2 million. That isn't going to net the Brewers an elite prospect, but it could get them a top-10 prospect in a team's system.
The Brewers could also trade Williams for established MLB talent. They are a win-now team, after all, and notably, when they traded Josh Hader two years ago, they got two veterans (Taylor Rogers and Dinelson Lamet) in addition to two prospects (Robert Gasser and Esteury Ruiz).
With all this in mind, let's size up 10 potential suitors for Williams based on how well he would fit them and what they offer. Trade proposals are included for the top five.
All prospect rankings are courtesy of B/R's Joel Reuter. Closer projections are according to RosterResource at FanGraphs.
10-6: Padres, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Giants, Red Sox
10. San Diego Padres
2024 Record: 93-69, 2nd in NL West
Projected Closer: Robert Suarez
It's the Padres. They can never be counted out on any star while A.J. Preller is at the helm of their front office, and it was only a couple of months ago that he went on a reliever trade spree.
It is, nonetheless, hard to see the bullpen as a need for San Diego this winter. And if it is, it may only be to the extent that Tanner Scott, a noted Shohei Ohtani killer, must be re-signed.
9. Los Angeles Dodgers
2024 Record: 98-64, 1st in NL West
Projected Closer: Evan Phillips/Michael Kopech
The Dodgers have had a revolving door at closer ever since Kenley Jansen left town after 2021. If they'd rather have something solid there, they could do worse than Williams.
Still, we're talking about more of a nice-to-have than a must-have. L.A. has bigger fish to fry, specifically re-signing Teoscar Hernández and addressing shortstop and its rotation.
8. Toronto Blue Jays
2024 Record: 74-88, 5th in AL East
Projected Closer: Jordan Romano
The Blue Jays had the worst bullpen in baseball this season, so they can't think that simply getting Romano back from elbow surgery will solve everything.
But is now a good time for them to make a deal for a rental closer? That's the kind of move you make when you have all the other parts of a contender, and they're short in that regard.
7. San Francisco Giants
2024 Record: 80-82, 4th in NL West
Projected Closer: Ryan Walker
The Giants bullpen did OK this season despite Camilo Doval (a trade candidate in his own right, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle) crashing and burning. It makes one wonder how strong it could be in 2025 if Williams is brought aboard.
Like the Blue Jays, though, the question is whether the timing is right here. The Giants also have more pressing needs, specifically on the offensive side.
6. Boston Red Sox
2024 Record: 81-81, 3rd in AL East
Projected Closer: Liam Hendriks
Only three teams suffered more blown saves than the Red Sox in 2024, and now they have holes in the spots free agents Kenley Jansen and Chris Martinez formerly occupied.
It is key that Hendriks and Garrett Whitlock are coming back, though. Otherwise, they're another team with more pressing needs. Their offseason must revolve around starters and right-handed bats.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
2024 Record: 89-73, 3rd in NL West
Projected Closer: Justin Martinez
Would the Diamondbacks have made the playoffs if they'd had even a slightly better bullpen?
It's hardly an absurd notion, and not just because the Snakes won exactly as many games as the two teams that got into the NL field ahead of them. Their pen really did hurt them this season, accounting for 30 losses and generally lowering the team's win probability.
Martinez was a relative success story in racking up a 2.48 ERA with 91 strikeouts in 72.2 innings. But he also faded down the stretch, allowing 12 runs (nine earned) in his last 19 appearances.
Though Arizona also has holes in its lineup where Christian Walker and Joc Pederson used to be, addressing the bullpen is arguably the team's top priority for the winter. To this end, scoring Williams would be a huge boon to their contention chances for 2025.
Trade Proposal: Arizona Diamondbacks get RHP Devin Williams; Milwaukee Brewers get RHP Yilber Diaz (Diamondbacks No. 4)
Be it in their rotation or their bullpen, Diaz is a guy the Brewers could plug in right away. He can run his fastball into the upper 90s, and his slider is a darn good one that hitters batted just .130 against this year.
The catch is that Diaz is the No. 4 prospect in a weak system. The Brewers can and should try to turn their franchise closer into a better return.
4. New York Yankees
2024 Record: 94-68, 1st in AL East
Projected Closer: Luke Weaver
It wasn't the bullpen that (literally) dropped the ball for the Yankees in the World Series. The pen was solid throughout the postseason, including with a 2.86 ERA in the Fall Classic.
This was notably with Clay Holmes and Tommy Kahnle, however. Both are now free agents, and the Yankees would otherwise be wise not to take it for granted that Weaver can sustain his late-season run of brilliance as their closer.
He really was that good after September 6, allowing only three earned runs in 26.1 total innings. But he seemed out of gas by the end of the World Series, and to call his entire 2024 season an outlier relative to the rest of his career would be understating it.
Granted, the Yankees need to be more focused on re-signing Juan Soto and otherwise filling out their infield. But relief help should be among their top priorities, and their contention window aligns with Williams' free-agency timeline.
Trade Proposal: New York Yankees get RHP Devin Williams; Milwaukee Brewers get RHP Will Warren, LHP Brock Selvidge (Yankees No. 6)
The Yankees' problem is they're short on valuable trade chips. They don't have much in the way of expendable MLB talent, and their farm system is the second-worst in MLB.
This package probably wouldn't impress Brewers fans, though the team would get at least one MLB-ready pitcher out of it. That's Warren, who notably limited hitters to a 2-for-27 showing against his fastball in the majors this year.
3. Texas Rangers
2024 Record: 78-84, 3rd in AL West
Projected Closer: Josh Sborz
There's irony in how the Rangers had a better bullpen this year than when they won the World Series in 2023, but that isn't what matters right now.
What does matter is that Kirby Yates and David Robertson are both missing from the depth chart because of free agency. That hurts, especially where the former is concerned.
The veteran righty was the most unhittable pitcher in MLB this season. He pitched 61.2 innings and gave up only 23 hits, resulting in a league-leading rate of 3.4 hits per nine innings.
Whether or not the Rangers bring back Yates, it would be good to also have Williams aboard to maximize their run prevention. It could be the key to competing against the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners, both of whom were among the run prevention leaders of 2024.
Trade Proposal: Texas Rangers get RHP Devin Williams; Milwaukee Brewers get RHP Jack Leiter (Rangers No. 8)
Leiter's stock has plummeted since the Rangers picked him second in the 2021 draft. But lest anyone be too quick to write him off, he's still only 24 and the stuff he showed in the majors this season graded very well.
Still, it's not overly encouraging that he put up an 8.83 ERA in 35.2 innings anyway. This exchange would thus be as much a high-risk venture as a high-reward one for Milwaukee.
2. New York Mets
2024 Record: 89-73, T-2nd in NL East
Projected Closer: Edwin DĂaz
Whenever a Brewer is on the trading block, I am contractually obligated to bring up the Mets as a possible destination.
The connection is unavoidable because of David Stearns. Before accepting his current gig as president of baseball operations with the Mets, he had a highly successful run in charge of Milwaukee's front office.
In the here and now, the 39-year-old is looking at a bullpen depth chart that has been decimated by free agency. He should also want to add insurance for DĂaz, who only occasionally looked like his old self in his return from knee surgery.
The Mets also have huge needs in their rotation and at first base, and they're sure to give the Yankees a run for their money in the Juan Soto sweepstakes. But if the idea is to build a Death Star-type team for 2025, they must be in on Williams.
Trade Proposal: New York Mets get RHP Devin Williams; Milwaukee Brewers get 3B Brett Baty, INF Luisangel Acuña (Mets No. 5)
The Mets will need Baty if they don't re-sign Pete Alonso, but he sure looks like a change-of-scenery trade chip in the meantime. For his part, it's telling that Acuña didn't start a single game in the playoffs. Whether a starting role awaits him in 2025 is unclear.
Still, the Brewers would be taking chances on both if they were to do this deal. Baty has a .607 OPS in 169 major league games, while Acuña generally gives off utility-guy vibes.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2024 Record: 95-67, 1st in NL East
Projected Closer: Orion Kerkering/Matt Strahm/José Alvarado
The Phillies' bullpen wasn't necessarily a weakness in 2024, but it wasn't exactly ironclad either.
The pen had a good-not-great 3.94 ERA and blew 19 of its 56 save opportunities. And this was with Jeff Hoffman, who's now a free agent after making the NL All-Star squad en route to a 2.17 ERA.
Therefore, the Phillies figure to be in the market for a closer this winter, and Williams sure matches the description of the type of player preferred by president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski: a star.
This is also a moment in time when the Phillies have an abundance of trade chips. The really good ones reside in their 17th-ranked farm system, but a more interesting possibility in this context involves one of their expendable lineup stalwarts.
Trade Proposal: Philadelphia Phillies get RHP Devin Williams; Milwaukee Brewers get 2B Bryson Stott
Though Alec Bohm is the more obvious trade chip, Stott also has an uncertain spot in the Phillies' long-term plans. That wouldn't be the case if he were moved to Milwaukee, where another infielder is needed to account for Willy Adames' likely departure as a free agent.
Sure, there are angles from which Stott merely looks like a remixed Brice Turang. But as a guy who fields the ball well and steals bases, he'd fit well with a Brewers club that excels at both things.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.