Bowl Projections 2024: CFP Bracket Predictions After Latest Playoff Rankings

There's plenty of football left to be played in the 2024 college season, but the playoff picture is starting to come into focus.

On Tuesday, the College Football Playoff (CFP) selection committee released its initial rankings. There weren't many surprises at the very top, as undefeated Oregon came in at No. 1, followed by Ohio State, Georgia and Miami.

The ordering could pose a few questions, as the undefeated Hurricanes fell below the Buckeyes and Bulldogs. Of course, Miami could end up with a first-round bye, and things will be settled in the coming weeks.

"We're splitting hairs as far as looking at two great teams," CFP committee chair and Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel said, per Eddie Pells of the Associated Press.

The Hurricanes will likely jump either Ohio State or Oregon, who very well could face off in the Big Ten Championship Game—yes, Oregon being in the B1G still feels odd.

With games against Mississippi and Tennessee on the schedule before the SEC title game, Georgia could fall as well.

Here, you'll find a look at the full CFP committee rankings, the new playoff format and predictions for the final playoff field.

1. Oregon (9-0)

2. Ohio State (7-1)

3. Georgia (7-1)

4. Miami (9-0)

5. Texas (7-1)

6. Penn State (7-1)

7. Tennessee (7-1)

8. Indiana (9-0)

9. BYU (8-0)

10. Notre Dame (7-1)

11. Alabama (6-2)

12. Boise State (7-1)

13. SMU (8-1)

14. Texas A&M (7-2)

15. LSU (6-2)

16. Mississippi (7-2)

17. Iowa State (7-1)

18. Pittsburgh (7-1)

19. Kansas State (7-2)

20. Colorado (6-2)

21. Washington State (7-1)

22. Louisville (6-3)

23. Clemson (6-2)

24. Missouri (6-2)

25. Army (8-0)

Since the CFP was first introduced in 2014, fans have become accustomed to seeing a three-game bracket usually featuring undefeated teams that passed the proverbial "eye test."

While factors like strength of schedule and quality of wins will inevitably play a part in the final playoff bracket, there should be far fewer questions surrounding the semifinal and final participants.

Controversial decisions, like leaving 13-0 Florida State out of the 2023 playoffs, should be a thing of the past.

The new 12-team playoff format will debut this year, and it leaves the door open for two-loss teams like Alabama and Texas A&M to have hope in early November. The selection committee is still responsible for determining the final field, but teams on the back end will have the opportunity to play their way into the championship game.

The final selection show is scheduled to take place on Sunday, December 8.

Under the new format—which has been approved for the 2024 and 2025 seasons—the 12-team field will feature the five highest-ranked conference champions, along with the next seven highest-ranked teams.

The four highest-ranked conference champions will be ranked Nos. 1-4 and will receive first-round byes. The other eight teams will face off in the opening round in typical bracket fashion—No. 5 will host No. 12, No. 6 will host No. 11 and so on.

The quarterfinal round will take place on December 31 and January 1 and will consist of the Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl. The semifinal round (Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl Classic) will take place on January 9 and 10.

The College Football National Championship is scheduled for January 20 and will take place at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Byes

1. Georgia (SEC Champion)

2. Ohio State (B1G Champion)

3. Miami (ACC Champion)

4. BYU (Big 12 Champion)

First Round

12. Boise State at 5. Oregon

11. Alabama at 6. Texas

10. Notre Dame at 7. Penn State

9. Indiana at 8. Tennessee

---

The committee decided to give Ohio State an edge over Georgia, and at this point in the year, there's no harm in that decision. Ohio State's only loss was a tightly contested 32-31 game against Oregon.

There's an extremely good chance that the Buckeyes will have an opportunity to avenge that loss in the Big Ten Title Game. Ohio State's toughest test until then will be against No. 8 Indiana on November 23—unless you want to count the annual rivalry game against Michigan, which we won't.

The prediction here is that Will Howard, Quinshon Judkins, Emeka Egbuka and the Buckeyes push their way to a conference title.

With only one loss (at Alabama) and a tougher remaining schedule, the Bulldogs stand a good chance of leaping the Buckeyes if they win the SEC Championship. Of course, a lot will depend on how Georgia performs against teams like Tennessee and Mississippi, plus what Ohio State does in a presumed rematch with Oregon.

Assuming Heisman hopeful Cam Ward and the Hurricanes stay undefeated and claim the ACC title—Miami's upcoming schedule includes Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and Syracuse—they'll remain in the top four.

This should leave the final bye to the Big 12 champion. The prediction here is that BYU will claim the Big 12 and the final bye, even if the committee isn't particularly high on the ninth-ranked Cougars at this point.

There's no guarantee that BYU will win its conference, of course, but recent losses by Iowa State and Kansas State have created a clear path.

Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter and 20th-ranked Colorado have a chance to make things very interesting in the Big 12. A win this weekend against 6-3 Texas Tech would be huge for Deion Sanders' squad.

However, it feels like the Big 12 will come down to BYU and Iowa State.

We'll also project Boise State to claim the Mountain West and the final automatic playoff bid, while strong programs like Texas, Tennessee, Indiana and Penn State fill-out the at large field.

Alabama and Notre Dame should make it in if they can win out—brand recognition won't be ignored—though neither team is a lock. A loss to LSU on Saturday would essentially wrap Alabama's playoff chances. Notre Dame must outlast Army—which has an outside playoff shot—and USC at the end of the month.

In other words, while the playoff picture is clearer, it's a very long way from being settled.