Week 12 NFL Picks: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Box Score Bets

As the NFL enters its 12th week of the 2024 season, the playoff race is really starting to heat up. Most races are far from decided, but we saw just a little bit more clarity over the past week.

The Philadelphia Eagles and Pittsburgh Steelers established themselves as the teams to beat in their respective conferences with big wins over divisional opponents. The Buffalo Bills ended the Kansas City Chiefs' undefeated streak, while the Cincinnati Bengals experienced yet another heartbreaking last-minute loss—this time at the hands of the Los Angeles Chargers, who didn't "Charger" away the game.

A few marquee matchups will deadline Week 12, though not every game will be drenched in drama. For those looking to add a little excitement, we've identified a few box-score bets to consider based on the early Week 12 odds.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Thursday's game between the 8-2 Pittsburgh Steelers and 2-8 Cleveland Browns might not be particularly competitive. Pittsburgh has looked like a legitimate title contender, while Cleveland has looked completely lost.

Player props might help make things at least a little more entertaining. One early prop we love involves Steelers running back Jaylen Warren. His over/under is modest and carries favorable -115 (bet $115 to win $100) odds.

While Najee Harris leads Pittsburgh's backfield, Warren is the quicker, shiftier ball-carrier. The Browns defense has had serious issues with bad angles and poor tackling, which are advantageous to a back who can kick things outside.

Cleveland has allowed an average of 4.8 yards per carry this season and just coughed up 214 rushing yards to the New Orleans Saints. Warren, meanwhile, fought through a back injury to rush for 41 yards against a terrific Baltimore Ravens run defense.

We'd expect Pittsburgh to take a run-first approach on the road and for Warren to hit the over with relative ease.

While the Steelers will likely look to run early and run often on a short week, Russell Wilson's passing over/under (-115) is too low to ignore.

Pittsburgh's new starting quarterback has shown that he can open things up when given the opportunity. He threw for just 205 yards against Baltimore last week, but he's thrown for no fewer than 195 yards in a game this season.

Cleveland's defense, meanwhile, has a good collection of cornerbacks. However, it has also experienced frequent communication breakdowns, which have led to lengthy plays in the passing game.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling scored on a 71-yard reception in Week 11. Los Angeles Chargers receiver Quentin Johnston scored on a 66-yard reception in Cleveland's previous game.

Pittsburgh probably won't lead with the pass, but one big completion to George Pickens or Calvin Austin III should be enough to push Wilson close to the 200-yard mark.

Cleveland has allowed fewer than 195 passing yards only twice this season.

It's hard to feel great about and Browns players in this matchup. Pittsburgh's defense is terrific, and Cleveland's ongoing offensive line issues continue—Dawand Jones is done for the season with an ankle injury.

If there's any player prop to trust on Cleveland's side, it's the over for tight end David Njoku's receptions line (-115).

Njoku has become an integral piece of the passing attack, and that has been even more true since Deshaun Watson exited the lineup. Jameis Winston might not be a high-level starter, but he knows to look in Njoku's direction often.

Over the past five games, Njoku has seen no fewer than seven targets and caught no fewer than five passes in a game. He caught nine of nine targets for 81 yards in last week's loss to the Saints.

Njoku will undoubtedly draw a lot of defensive attention from the Steelers, which may limit his yardage production. It will be a fairly significant surprise, though, if he finishes with fewer than five receptions.

Ravens tight ends Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews combined for six receptions last week against the Steelers.

While most player props won't be available until later in the week, point total over/unders have been available since Sunday. One early over (-110) to consider involves the Detroit Lions and Indianapolis Colts.

The Lions are playing like the best team in football right now, especially on offense. Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery and Co. topped 51 points by themselves against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.

While some coaches may take their foot off the proverbial pedal when winning comfortably, Dan Campbell is not like most coaches.

"You found a rhythm, you keep the rhythm," Campbell said, per ProFootballTalk's Michael David Smith.

Expect the Lions to keep racking up points throughout their game in Indianapolis.

The Colts, meanwhile, aren't well-equipped to slow Detroit. Indy ranks 28th in total defense and 19th in points allowed. While the Colts offense isn't great, it did seem to catch a spark from recently reinserted starting QB Anthony Richardson.

Richardson helped Indianapolis tally 28 points against a good (not great) New York Jets defense in Week 11. The Colts may not fare as well against the Lions and their elite defensive front, but they should add more points to the total than Jacksonville did (six of them) in Week 11.

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