Week 13 NFL Odds: Early Locks and Best Bets on the Schedule

Believe it or not, we've already reached the Thanksgiving slate in the NFL. While we have a clearer idea of who the very best teams in the league are, Week 12 served as a reminder that nothing can be viewed as a guarantee.

The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs, who have lost just a single game this season, were double-digit favorites over the Carolina Panthers. Kansas City scraped with a last-second field goal against the team that "earned" the top pick in the 2024 draft—though that selection ultimately went to the Chicago Bears.

The Bears, meanwhile, pushed the Minnesota Vikings into overtime after a successful onside kick, though they lost anyway.

"Sure things" are still few and far between in the NFL, but we've identified some top bets for Week 13 based on the early lines.

*Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook

The Dallas Cowboys, of course, will be playing on Thanksgiving, as is tradition. While a Cooper Rush versus Tommy DeVito might not entice fans, the Cowboys faithful have a good chance to see their squad pick up a second consecutive win.

Dallas has little to play for amid a lost season, but the Cowboys showed in Week 12 that they'll still fight for pride against a divisional opponent. They looked like the better team throughout their game against the Washington Commanders. Even with Dak Prescott on injured reserve, Dallas is a better team than the New York Giants right now.

The Giants, who benched and then released Daniel Jones, are "playing" for draft positioning. The players seem to know it and have conducted themselves accordingly on the field.

Giants receiver Malik Nabers called his team "soft" after Sunday's 30-7 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

"Take a look, it ain't the quarterback," Nabers told reporters.

Neither team has a good quarterback at this point. The Cowboys, however, still have a will to win. That'll mean the difference in this divisional matchup.

Like the Giants, the Las Vegas Raiders are in the running for the top pick in the 2025 draft. Unlike the Giants, Las Vegas might not get the pick intentionally.

Las Vegas has fielded a disjointed offense all season, and now it will be without quarterback Gardner Minshew. He suffered a broken collarbone during Sunday's 29-19 loss to the Denver Broncos.

If healthy, Aidan O'Connell (thumb) will likely return to the starting lineup. Las Vegas' other QB option is in-season acquisition Desmond Ridder. Neither option is great against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, but this line is simply too large for a divisional game.

Kansas City has repeatedly struggled to put teams away. Aside from the loss to the Buffalo Bills, the Chiefs have found ways to win at the end of games, which has robbed them of a sense of urgency.

The Chiefs should pull through again this week, but it's hard to envision them winning by more than two touchdowns, even against an overmatched Raiders squad. Kansas City won by a touchdown in the first meeting and has yet to defeat a team by more than 13 points in 2024.

The Cleveland Browns haven't been good this season but have found a knack for knocking off good teams. They beat the Baltimore Ravens just a few weeks ago and outlasted the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night.

The Ravens and Steelers are, however, divisional opponents. Cleveland has had a much harder time getting up for non-divisional foes in 2024—its only other win coming against a listless Jacksonville Jaguars team.

The Denver Broncos are anything but listless. They're barrelling toward a wild-card spot and have seen increasingly impressive play from rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Denver has a top-tier defense and will have home-field advantage in this matchup.

The Browns defense has looked good against AFC North foes and decidedly lackluster against everyone else. Nix may have another highlight-reel day to put on his Rookie of the Year resume this week.

Cleveland's offense, meanwhile, largely goes as quarterback Jameis Winston does. He's extremely turnover-prone, which is bad news against a good pass rush and an elite secondary.

The Browns will have had extra time to prepare for this matchup, but their odds of pulling off an upset in Denver are extremely slim. This line isn't large enough and will likely grow as the week unfolds.

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