CFB Week 14 Takeaways: Ohio State Falters as Conference Races Wrap Up

Throughout the college football world, we pored over an enormous list of decisive scenarios for Week 14.

Some conferences had a simple outlook. In the ACC, for example, Miami's result would determine if the 'Canes or Clemson went to the championship game. The winner of Texas' showdown with Texas A&M would determine Georgia's opponent in the SEC, as well.

And then, there was the Big 12. At the beginning of the regular season's final week, nine teams—yes, seriously, nine—had a path to playing for the league title.

Saturday's action finalized the championships.

As you'd imagine, the drama appeared with a supporting dose of upsets. Michigan went to the Horseshoe and stunned Ohio State, and Syracuse added another top-10 loss—while doing Clemson a big favor.

I will readily admit that—particularly in November—the storylines tend to focus on the CFP picture.

Still, it's important to not dismiss the value of a conference championship at any program. While the spotlight won't shine brightly on most Group of Five leagues, massive games are on the horizon.

AAC: Tulane at Army
C-USA: Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State
Mountain West: UNLV at Boise State
MAC: Miami (Ohio) vs. Ohio (in Detroit)
Sun Belt: Marshall at Louisiana

I'll focus on the Mountain West momentarily, given its anticipated impact on the official CFP bracket. Even in a moment of trying to recognize the Group of Five as a whole, that clash is the featured matchup.

Every championship, nevertheless, will provide a jolt to these programs in their pursuit of becoming an attractive G5 spot.

Boise State's path to the CFP has been crystal clear: Keep winning, and nobody else in the G5 can catch the Broncos.

Two results made the discussion simpler, too. Memphis beat Tulane, and UNLV toppled Nevada. Boise State will be the highest-ranked G5 team in Tuesday's update, and UNLV will presumably be second.

So, the stakes are simple: The winner of the Mountain West Championship Game is also a Playoff team.

The clash is a rematch of the 2023 title and an earlier 2024 game. Boise State won those meetings—both of which were played at UNLV—but will be aiming to protect the blue turf in this Friday's showdown.

Yes, it's a final opportunity for Boise running back Ashton Jeanty to pad his Heisman Trophy resume. But the only thing that truly matters for either team is leaving with a victory and a spot in the CFP.

I hope Clemson sends Syracuse a handwritten note, at least.

During the early window, Clemson cost itself a shot at back-dooring an invitation to the CFP. South Carolina scored a late touchdown and grabbed a game-sealing interception to snag a 17-14 rivalry win, dropping Clemson to 9-3 overall and entirely out of the at-large discussion.

However, the Tigers found a lifeline thanks to Syracuse, which fought back from a 21-0 hole to upset Miami 42-38. The result moved Clemson into the ACC Championship Game against SMU instead of Miami.

And if Dabo Swinney's team secures a win in Charlotte next Saturday, it'll earn an automatic bid to the Playoff.

The season hasn't gone as planned for Clemson, but Syracuse's win kept all of the Tigers' championship dreams alive.

Ohio State will be part of the College Football Playoff. If the Buckeyes win a national title, forget the idea of a coaching change.

But, uh, today? Today is not great for Ryan Day.

There is plenty of blame to share for a 13-10 loss to rival Michigan. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly called a lifeless game, quarterback Will Howard tossed two awful interceptions and a pair of missed field goals hurt OSU, too. It was a horrible, no good, very bad day.

As a result, Ohio State ended the regular season 10-2. This is the fourth straight year the Buckeyes lost to Michigan—and, by extension, a fourth without a Big Ten crown.

That's not good enough in Columbus.

Look, the grass isn't always greener. He's 63-10 in six seasons as the full-time head coach. But if the Bucks fall short in the College Football Playoff, there will be a serious discussion about Day's future and ponying up a buyout of around $37 million.

Ohio State's setback swung open the door for Penn State, and the Nittany Lions did not squander their opportunity.

During a trip to Maryland, they cruised to a 44-7 win. Head coach James Franklin uncorked a memorable rant afterward—which I fully support, by the way—as the program weaseled its way into a clash opposite top-ranked Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Later on, Texas controlled its 17-7 triumph over Texas A&M to secure a rematch with Georgia in the SEC title game.

Next weekend's tilts are huge opportunities for both teams.

Penn State has an ugly history of losing marquee games in Franklin's tenure. Not only had the program last reached the Big Ten championship in 2016, the Nittany Lions are 1-13 against top-5 foes under Franklin. Want to quiet a narrative? Beat Oregon.

Texas, meanwhile, is looking for redemption after losing to Georgia in October. The defense had a fine showing in that 30-15 loss, but Quinn Ewers and the UT offense were a wreck.

Will either team add to its trophy case?

What a crazy weekend.

Nine teams—Arizona State, BYU, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia—prepared for Week 14 with an ability to make the Big 12 Championship Game. Some scenarios were unlikely, of course, but a path at least existed.

Arizona State enjoyed a simple win-and-in, smoked rival Arizona and clinched its place in the title matchup.

The rest? Not so straightforward.

Iowa State toppled Kansas State but didn't know its fate until BYU—which ISU actually eliminated by winning its game—held off Houston. If BYU lost, Colorado would've snuck into the championship.

While that's a bit of cruel irony for BYU, it made for a dramatic finish in the early hours of Sunday morning.

As the proverbial dust settles on the regular season, the outlook for the College Football Playoff is mostly clear.

The stone-cold locks are Oregon, Texas, Penn State and Notre Dame. Oregon is undefeated, while the remaining trio all holds an 11-1 record. They are absolutely headed to the CFP.

Behind them, the "I can't figure out why they wouldn't be" locks are Ohio State, Georgia, Tennessee and Indiana. While the initial three are 10-2, their resumes each include at least one marquee win in a conference the CFP selection committee clearly values. Indiana does not have an impressive victory, but it holds an 11-1 record.

Throw in the eventual ACC, Big 12 and Mountain West champions, and a single invitation is left.

My personal view is SMU, at 11-1, should be a lock regardless. I'm also uncomfortable with the selection committee, which is not always the most predictable entity. If SMU loses to Clemson, maybe the Mustangs drop to the wrong side of the bubble. I hope not, but you can't rule it out.

On that note, though, where does Miami fall in Tuesday's update? Will the 10-2 'Canes be ahead of 9-3 teams Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina, or behind some or all of them? Will the committee vault a sizzling South Carolina—after a win over Clemson—past Bama and Ole Miss, which both defeated the Gamecocks this season?

Finally, the CFP rankings will actually matter. Bring it on.