Biggest Strength, Weakness and X-Factor for NFL's Conference Championship Teams
The Final Four is here.
Wait a second. That's another sport—shootyhoops or something like that.
After last weekend's divisional round, only four teams remain alive in the hunt for Super Bowl LIX. This Sunday, the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles will meet in the NFC Championship Game. A few hours later, the AFC Championship Game will feature the latest chapter in perhaps the league's biggest quarterback rivalry when Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills travel to face Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Each of these teams won at least 12 games in 2024. The contests feature three of the NFL's best at quarterback—and a fourth in rookie Jayden Daniels who's doing his best to join them.
All four of these teams do many things well on both sides of the ball, whether it's Philly's stout defense or the Bills' explosive offense. But no team is perfect. Every club also has a weakness that could be their undoing in the conference championship games.
Here's a look at the biggest strength and weakness of the NFL's version of the final four—and an X-factor who could have a much bigger impact than expected on this week's contests.
Buffalo Bills
Strength: Scoring Offense
There was some concern entering the season about the lack of star power on the Buffalo offense. The Bills even addressed that concern with the in-season trade for veteran wide receiver Amari Cooper, although that trade has brought back very little in the way of returns.
Although the Bills lack big names at wide receiver, that hasn't stopped the offense from scoring points regularly. The Bills are the highest-scoring team left in the playoffs, having averaged 30.9 points per game in the regular season. Buffalo was also 10th in total offense, averaging 359.1 yards per contest.
The Bills led the league this season with 32 rushing touchdowns while adding 30 more scores through the air. It was the first time in NFL history that a team scored 30 times both on the ground and through the air.
Not bad for a team that didn't have a 900-yard receiver.
Weakness: Pass Defense
Among the four remaining playoff teams, the Bills were the most porous defensively in the regular season, allowing 341.5 yards per game. Buffalo also ranked outside of the top 10 in scoring defense, although it surrendered fewer points per game than the Washington Commanders.
The Bills were outgained in their divisional-round win over the Baltimore Ravens by more than 140 yards, and the pass defense was shaky at times during the regular season. For the year, Buffalo surrendered 226.1 passing yards per game—ninth-most in the league.
Kansas City's passing offense wasn't especially explosive this year, but taking on Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead with a bottom-10 pass defense isn't going to be easy.
X-Factor: Edge-Rusher Von Miller
Given their deficiencies against the pass in 2024, getting pressure on Mahomes on Sunday will be critical to the Bills' chances of victory. The Bills were just average in that regard during the regular season. Buffalo's 39 sacks ranked in the middle of the pack in the NFL.
Fourth-year veteran Gregory Rousseau paced the Bills this season with eight sacks, but if the Bills are finally going to get past the Chiefs in the postseason, veteran Von Miller may need to turn back the clock and be a force off the edge. The 35-year-old played only 279 snaps for the season, but he was tied for second on the team with six sacks.
Miller did get to Mahomes in the Bills' Week 11 win over the Chiefs in Buffalo.
Kansas City Chiefs
Strength: Championship Game Experience
This may seem like a trite answer, but the best thing the Chiefs have going for them heading into Sunday's matchup with the Bills is that they've been there and done that time and again.
This is the seventh consecutive season in which the Chiefs have advanced to the AFC Championship Game. Kansas City is 4-2 in those title tilts, including a 38-24 win over Josh Allen and the Bills back in 2020.
Even the most grizzled veteran will have some butterflies heading into a matchup of this magnitude. But the Chiefs have lived in the AFC Championship Game for years. It's a game they not only expect to be in, but expect to win.
This is easily the most battle-tested team in the NFL. The Chiefs aren't going to get rattled if their first two drives are three-and-outs or if they turn the ball over early. They're just going to stay the course and play their game.
That makes things that much more difficult for the Bills on Sunday.
Weakness: Lack of Offensive Explosiveness
A lack of explosive firepower didn't stop the Chiefs from winning Super Bowl LVIII last year, but they made a concerted effort to add some pop to the offense in the offseason and even once the season started.
It didn't work out especially well.
With running back Isiah Pacheco on the shelf for much of the season with a broken leg, the Chiefs averaged only 105.3 yards per game on the ground, which ranked 22nd in the league. They were slightly better through the air, but they finished the regular season ranked 14th with 222.4 passing yards per game.
Kansas City's longest play of the season was 54 yards. Only the lowly offenses of the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots didn't have a play that was longer this season.
No Chiefs wide receiver finished the regular season with with 60 catches or 650 receiving yards. The Chiefs also didn't have a 750-yard rusher, and their leading rusher (Kareem Hunt) averaged only 3.6 yards per carry.
The Chiefs won a lot of games this year, but they did it with an offense that was more methodical than explosive.
X-Factor: Wide Receiver Xavier Worthy
Although the Chiefs didn't have a ton of explosive plays in 2024, that doesn't mean they don't have the potential for them. Rookie receiver Xavier Worthy set a new scouting combine record in the 40-yard dash before the Chiefs selected him with the No. 28 overall pick in the 2024 draft.
Worthy's rookie stats were OK. He led all Chiefs wideouts in receptions (59), receiving yards (638) and touchdowns (6). But his average of 10.8 yards per catch doesn't exactly scream "take the top off a defense."
The Chiefs will need one of their better offensive efforts of the season to get past a Bills team that led the AFC in scoring at almost 31 points a game. They may need Worthy to make one of the big plays that the Chiefs expected out of the former Texas standout.
Washington Commanders
Strength: Quarterback Jayden Daniels
In 2023, the Washington Commanders were a four-win team that earned the second overall pick in the 2024 draft. One year later, Washington won 12 games and just knocked off the NFC's No. 1 seed on the road in emphatic fashion.
Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels isn't the only reason for the turnaround in the nation's capital. But make no mistake: If the Commanders are going to upset the Philadelphia Eagles and try to become the third No. 6 seed to win the Super Bowl, Daniels is going to have to stand on his head.
The youngster certainly appears capable of putting the Commanders on his back. The soon-to-be Offensive Rookie of the Year is sixth among quarterbacks in completion percentage, posted a passer rating over 100 and led all NFC quarterbacks with 891 rushing yards.
If Washington wins Sunday, it will likely be thanks to a stellar game from Daniels, and the youngster will have already built quite the legend in just one season.
Weakness: Run Defense
This may well be the deciding factor in Sunday's game—a hurdle that is too tall for the Commanders to overcome.
Last week against the Rams, the Philadelphia Eagles piled up a staggering 285 yards on the ground, averaging almost 8.5 yards per carry. Eagles running back Saquon Barkley surpassed 2,000 rushing yards in the regular season, and Philadelphia led the NFC in rushing at 179.3 yards per game.
That's a major problem for the Commanders, who have struggled mightily stopping the run this season. In the regular season, only the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers allowed more rushing yards per game than the 137.5 the Commanders gave up. Against the Lions in the divisional round, the Commanders gave up over 200 rushing yards and allowed a whopping 8.7 yards per tote.
Washington was bailed out against the Lions by five turnovers. But the Commanders have to keep Barkley in check to have a chance to pull off the upset.
X-Factor: Wide Receiver Olamide Zaccheaus
The Commanders have a tough job ahead of them offensively. The Eagles led the NFL in total defense and pass defense and paced the NFC in scoring defense. Add to that Washington's defensive issues against the run, and the Commanders are going to have to find a way to move the ball through the air.
It can be done, though. Daniels threw five touchdown passes the last time the Eagles and Commanders met. In that game, Washington wide receiver Olamide Zaccheaus caught five passes for 70 yards and a pair of scores.
It's hardly a secret that Terry McLaurin is the Commanders' top wideout, and as such, he'll see the lion's share of defensive attention from the league's top pass defense. Zaccheaus has to take advantage of single coverage and may need another big outing for Washington to continue its Cinderella run.
Philadelphia Eagles
Strength: The Ground Game
The Eagles were eighth in the NFL in total offense and seventh in scoring offense during the regular season. The engine that drives that offense is Saquon Barkley and the rushing attack.
Barkley's first season in Philadelphia has certainly been a memorable one. His 2,005 rushing yards in the regular season set a new franchise record. Had Barkley not sat out Week 18, Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record may have fallen.
Last week against the Rams, Barkley set a franchise record for rushing yards in a playoff game with 205. He gashed the Commanders for 150 rushing yards and two scores the last time the teams met as well.
The Eagles also have arguably the best offensive line in the NFL, and Jalen Hurts was third among all quarterbacks in rushing yards this season with 630.
If the Eagles have another game running the ball like they did in the divisional round (285 yards, three touchdowns), you can likely punch their ticket to the Super Bowl.
Weakness: Inconsistent Passing Game
Fans of the Commanders won't want to hear this, but among the four remaining teams, the Eagles are the most balanced. And quite possibly the most talented. Philly doesn't have a glaring weakness on either side of the ball.
However, the Eagles passing attack has been grounded as of late. Sure, you can attribute last week's unimpressive 128 passing yards to poor weather. But over his last six starts, Hurts has thrown for 150 yards only once.
Star wideout A.J. Brown has been nursing a knee injury for weeks. Hurts picked up one of his own against the Rams. The Commanders have no choice but to sell out in an effort to stop Barkley and the run game. There will be opportunities for Hurts to make plays down the field in the passing game.
If the Eagles take advantage of those opportunities, this game could be a rout. If they can't, that could open the door to an upset.
X-Factor: Cornerback Quinyon Mitchell
For most of his rookie season, Mitchell has been outstanding. He's allowed less than 55 percent of the passes thrown in his direction to be completed and has a passer rating against below 90. But Mitchell left last week's game early with a shoulder injury and did not return.
Mitchell has already stated his intention to play in the NFC Championship Game. But if he can't, Philly's NFL-best pass defense will be rather thin on the back end. With Mitchell sidelined in the divisional round, Matthew Stafford of the Rams threw for 324 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the midst of a snowstorm.
That Philly is just a 5.5-point favorite shows some concern from oddsmakers regarding the Eagles sealing the deal. If Mitchell joins linebacker Nakobe Dean on the shelf against Washington, those concerns will only be amplified.