Surprise Landing Spots for Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman and Top MLB Free Agents

With pitchers and catchers due to start reporting to spring training camps in a little over two weeks, perhaps it's long past time for some outside-the-box thinking on landing spots for the top free agents still searching for a new home.

Because maybe Pete Alonso isn't going to re-sign with the New York Mets after all.

Perhaps Alex Bregman is neither headed to Detroit nor Boston.

And someone needs to put these guys on a roster.

For each of the top nine free agents left on the board, we'll touch on the likeliest landing spots before nominating what could be a surprise candidate for each.

Fear not, though. We won't be picking the Los Angeles Dodgers as a surprise landing spot for any of these remaining free agents, both because it's not a surprise anymore when they sign someone and because we're sick and tired of their ceaseless construction of a superteam.

The surprises do make at least some sense, though, even if most of them are a bit unlikely. But that's what makes them surprises, of course.

Players are presented in alphabetical order by last name.

Likeliest Landing Spots: New York Mets or San Francisco Giants

Even though there has been a lot of talk lately of the New York Mets being willing to move on from re-signing Pete Alonso, it still seems the Polar Bear will most likely return to Queens. Between their seemingly limitless budget, the success he has had there, their need for a corner infielder and the apparent lack of anyone else willing to shell out the big bucks to acquire Alonso, it all still points to the Mets eventually making it happen.

If New York is actually out of the running, though, the next most likely landing spot is almost certainly San Francisco.

The Giants surely have room in their budget, but they are still nowhere close to their 2024 Opening Day payroll. They also have been the kings of those "one year plus one or two player option years" deals that appeal to free agents who haven't been as highly sought after as they thought they would be. (And those deals certainly worked out well for Carlos Rodón, Blake Snell and Matt Chapman.)

Surprise Landing Spot: Seattle Mariners

As far as team need is concerned, nothing about Seattle wanting Alonso would be surprising in the slightest. Save for signing 37-year-old Donovan Solano, the M's have done absolutely nothing this offseason to address the fact that they had one of the most anemic offenses in the majors last season, their elite starting rotation missing the playoffs because of it.

What would be surprising is if the Mariners found the money to make it happen, considering they are constantly acting like they can't afford to rub two nickels together and have to hope and pray they can budget their way to a .540 winning percentage in any given season.

As a result, if they did sign Alonso, it's likely that trading away the three years and $72.5M left on Luis Castillo's contract would happen almost immediately thereafter. However, if they could sign Alonso to pretty much exactly what's left on Castillo's deal and also get some decent prospects for Castillo, sure seems like that would be a solid maneuver.

Likeliest Landing Spots: Detroit Tigers or Boston Red Sox

Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reported on Tuesday that negotiations between Alex Bregman and the Tigers are "at a standstill," and that the 31-year-old third baseman with six seasons of at least 4.0 bWAR in the past eight years is not exactly on the brink of a new deal.

Of the teams that have been reportedly in the hunt, Detroit has arguably the greatest need for Bregman's glove and his right-handed bat. But if they're not willing to meet his contract demands, maybe he falls to the Mets, Red Sox or Blue Jays and their much larger budgets. (Toronto is least likely of that trio after recently landing Anthony Santander and pushing its payroll to or even beyond the luxury-tax threshold, but it could still happen.)

If he's willing to move to second base, Boston is probably the best non-Detroit bet.

Surprise Landing Spot: Athletics

While it's unlikely the A's will make Bregman their "Washington Nationals signing Jayson Werth for seven years" symbolic turning-over-a-new-leaf type of long-term move, they have been busy this offseason, trying to at least put up a fight for however long they end up being in West Sacramento.

They signed Luis Severino and traded for Jeffrey Springs relatively early on, and recently scooped up José Leclerc on a one-year deal. But if they were serious about getting their payroll up close to $100M in 2025, they still have about $45M to go.

They could throw most of that at Bregman on a short-term, high-AAV deal—perhaps a carbon copy of the two-year, $62M deal with an opt-out that Blake Snell got from the Giants last year.

Likeliest Landing Spots: Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs or Boston Red Sox

With Tanner Scott off the board to the Dodgers, all eyes turn to Carlos Estévez as the most noteworthy closer still available.

Of the teams who A) look like contenders and B) could justify spending around $14M annually for a closer, the blatantly obvious candidate is the Texas Rangers. They've signed a bunch of budget bullpen arms, but they don't have anything close to a sure thing at closer. It may well be their Achilles' heel if they don't address it before the season begins.

The Cubs and Red Sox could also be in play, but they at least have ninth-inning options in place.

Surprise Landing Spot: Washington Nationals

The real surprise here would be the audacity of non-tendering closer Kyle Finnegan just to commit way more money to Estévez.

As a result of that move, though, the Nationals have a wide-open race for the closer gig, as well as one of the lowest payrolls in the sport, even factoring in the deferred/retained money owed to Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin.

If they did make this happen, it'd be tough to say whether they view Estévez as their possible closer for the next 3-4 years or just a calculated investment in what could be a colossal trade chip at this year's deadline.

Either way, we thought the Nationals would do something at least a little more splashy than trading for Nathaniel Lowe and signing a one-year deal with Michael Soroka. This could be their spot.

Likeliest Landing Spots: Atlanta Braves or Detroit Tigers

It has been almost three months since Atlanta traded Jorge Soler's contract and declined Travis d'Arnaud's club option for 2025, and Atlanta has done a highly unusual amount of nothing since then.

With a payroll already scraping up against $200M, the Braves don't have much spending room, but we've been expecting them to make at least one semi-big splash. Re-signing Max Fried or signing Willy Adames always seemed like pipe dreams, but getting Jack Flaherty on a relatively short-term deal could be their big move.

A reunion with the Tigers might also be in the cards, though it seems like they've been far more focused on Alex Bregman from the outset.

Surprise Landing Spot: Kansas City Royals

Flaherty's market has been so quiet (at least publicly) that just about anywhere that he signs would prove a bit shocking.

But Kansas City, in particular, would be a real eyebrow-raiser.

Right now, the Royals' $115.7M projected payroll is effectively identical to where they began last season ($115.4M), and maybe that's as high as they're willing to go. But they did have an average OD payroll of $132.2M from 2016-18 and plausibly could stand to make a Flaherty-sized splash.

And, goodness, what a rotation they would have at that point. They already had both Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans returning, and they also re-signed both Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen. Add Flaherty to that mix, and suddenly, we're not so worried about the lack of bats (aside from Bobby Witt Jr.'s) that strike fear into the hearts of opponents.

Not for nothing, in four career appearances against the Royals, Flaherty has gone 25.0 IP with a 0.72 ERA, 0.52 WHIP and 24 K. They're quite familiar with how potent he can be.

Likeliest Landing Spots: Toronto Blue Jays or San Diego Padres

You don't need to have a left-handed pitcher in your rotation to succeed. In fact, from Sept. 2 onward this past season, the Dodgers had a grand total of one of their 41 games started by a lefty—that lone exception coming when they let Anthony Banda serve as the opener of the final game of the regular season, just to get him a little pre-postseason work in after a stint on the IL.

That said, a little handedness diversity in the rotation is nice to have, and both the Blue Jays and the Padres need at least one more starting pitcher and no current left-handed options with any big league experience.

There has been virtually no news this offseason about Andrew Heaney's free agency, but he would seem to be a good fit with either of those teams.

Surprise Landing Spot: Pittsburgh Pirates

Heaney will likely land on a team with a big enough budget to justify spending $10M-$15M annually on a No. 3 or No. 4 starter.

And, well, normally, that doesn't describe the Pirates in any way, shape or form.

But they've got some wiggle room as we near the end of what has been an even quieter offseason than usual for them.

After investing more than $30M in one-year deals in each of the past two winters, all Pittsburgh has done this offseason is to re-sign Andrew McCutchen for $5M and add Caleb Ferguson to the bullpen for $3M.

The Pirates currently have a projected payroll nearly $10M below where they opened last season, and certainly should be a candidate to sign a starting pitcher in Heaney's price range.

Likeliest Landing Spots: Seattle Mariners or San Francisco Giants

The expectation remains that Ha-Seong Kim won't be game-ready for Opening Day as he recovers from shoulder surgery but that he will be back on the field well in advance of the All-Star break.

Naturally, this has made his market a complicated one, as the team that ends up signing him pretty well has to plan on using a backup option at either second base or shortstop for the first month of the season.

'Backup options' is basically Seattle's entire infield, though, so signing Kim with the plan to plug him into the most problematic spot once he's available would make a ton of sense.

The Giants have also been a popular rumored landing spot for Kim. They could roll with Tyler Fitzgerald at second base until Kim is good to go, and more fully resolve their 2B/DH plans whenever that is.

Surprise Landing Spot: Atlanta Braves

Between Orlando Arcia's mediocre overall production over the past three-plus seasons and Ozzie Albies' injury history in recent years, adding a versatile middle infielder at what might be a significant discount because of his shoulder seems like something Atlanta should aggressively pursue.

Granted, they already expect to be without both Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. on Opening Day, and they can go ask the 2024 Texas Rangers how unenjoyable it is to spend the first half of the season waiting on guys who you already knew weren't healthy before the offseason began.

But if they do sign Kim and ever reach a point of full strength, putting him at shortstop and platooning Arcia and Jarred Kelenic in LF could be an NL East-winning formula.

Likeliest Landing Spots: San Francisco Giants or Toronto Blue Jays

In what feels like a game of "One of these things is not like the other," the three players who rejected qualifying offers and still haven't signed contracts are Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman...and Nick Pivetta.

He provided a decent amount of value to the Red Sox over the past four seasons, logging at least 140 innings pitched in each, with an ERA ranging from 4.04 to 4.56.

Was it enough for the almost 32-year-old to get a three-year or a four-year deal on the open market?

Thus far, apparently not. And the longer that he lingers in free agency, the more likely it is that he settles for one of those "one year plus a player option" deals that have been all the rage in recent years. We all know San Francisco loves those.

Surprise Landing Spot: Minnesota Twins

The Twins spent $7.7M last offseason.

They've yet to sign anyone this winter.

But why couldn't they be in the mix for Pivetta?

They have a solid top three in the rotation in Pablo López, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan, and getting Pivetta at No. 4 could be what puts them firmly back in the mix to win the AL Central.

They already have López signed through 2027, while both Ober and Ryan are arbitration-eligible through 2027. The same goes for Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax as the primary bullpen options. Might as well bring in Pivetta on a three-year deal and just go all-in (as all-in as Minnesota can realistically go, at any rate) on winning one soon—and worrying about 2028 another day.

Likeliest Landing Spots: San Diego Padres or Houston Astros

It probably shouldn't be a surprise that Jurickson Profar is still available. He signed in late February last winter, late March the previous winter and in late January 2021. No one loves waiting to see where he's most needed quite like this veteran outfielder.

And, well, he sure is still needed where he thrived this past season, as the Padres are presently slated for a steady dose of Tirso Ornelas and/or Brandon Lockridge in LF, the former with no MLB experience. At the same time, the latter made his MLB debut this past September and has 12 plate appearances to his name.

As the Padres deal with ownership issues and take their sweet time in re-upping with Profar, though, the Astros have emerged as a serious suitor for his services, hoping to address an outfield situation that is quite bleak after trading Kyle Tucker to the Cubs.

Surprise Landing Spot: Los Angeles Angels

Thus far in his career, Profar has played exclusively in the West divisions, going from the Rangers to the A's to the Padres to the Rockies and back to the Padres.

Perhaps that Pacific Coast journey continues with the Halos?

They were super active out of the gate this offseason, but haven't really done anything since Thanksgiving. Adding a switch-hitting outfielder to the mix could be huge, though, particularly for a team that is, in its present state, banking heavily on both Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon staying healthy for a change.

The Angels were quite possibly the first runner-up for Anthony Santander. Pivoting to Profar would make sense.

Likeliest Landing Spots: Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants or San Diego Padres

Publicly, there's not a favorite for Max Scherzer, who has had a very quiet free agency thus far.

It probably should be a tight three-horse race between these teams, though.

The Tigers are the obvious sentimental favorite, as it'd be fun to have him return to where he first became a star. They could certainly use at least one more starting pitcher, too.

Teaming up with Justin Verlander again in San Francisco could also be fun. The Giants have a solid five-man rotation in place, but with many injury risks/durability concerns in the bunch. Bringing on Scherzer as a sixth starter (not that he would be the No. 6 in their rotation) is probably a good idea.

And then the Padres just make sense because they need someone to replace the injured Joe Musgrove, which they have done nothing yet this offseason to address.

Surprise Landing Spot: Cincinnati Reds

Free-agent starting pitchers typically want nothing to do with Great American Ball Park, but Scherzer could be an exception to that rule.

In five career appearances (all quality starts) at GABP, Mad Max has a line of 33.0 IP, 15 H, 1 ER, 8 BB, 53 K.

The Reds did re-sign Nick Martinez via the $21M qualifying offer, traded for Brady Singer and have high hopes for rookie Rhett Lowder, so maybe they're good with what they've got. How often do you get a chance at a guy like Scherzer, though, even if he is in the twilight of his career?