AFC Championship Game 2025: Winner, Box Score Predictions for Bills vs. Chiefs

One of the NFL's top rivalries this decade has featured the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills. And once again, the two teams are set to meet in the AFC playoffs on Sunday evening.

The Chiefs, who are hosting the AFC Championship Game for the sixth time in seven years, will welcome the Bills to Arrowhead Stadium with a spot in Super Bowl LIX on the line. The winner will advance to face the NFC champion (either the Philadelphia Eagles or the Washington Commanders) on Feb. 9 in New Orleans.

This will be the fourth time in five years that Kansas City and Buffalo will face off in the playoffs. The Chiefs won each of the previous three meetings (including the AFC Championship Game in the 2020 season). However, the Bills have won four straight regular-season meetings with the Chiefs dating back to 2021.

Here's everything else to know ahead of this year's AFC Championship Game, followed by predictions for the matchup.

Date: Sunday, Jan. 26

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

TV/Live Stream: CBS/Paramount+

Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)

Over/Under: 47.5 total points

Moneyline: Kansas City (-125; bet $125 to win $100); Buffalo (+105; bet $100 to win $105)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Travis Kelce records more than 100 receiving yards
Last week, Kelce had seven catches for 117 yards and a touchdown in the Chiefs' Divisional Round victory over the Houston Texans. It was only the second 100-yard game of the season for the 35-year-old tight end, who previously had 100 yards in Week 9 vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Although Kelce hasn't put up huge yardage totals this season, don't be surprised if he exceeds the century mark again this week. He is clearly taking his game to another level while trying to lead Kansas City to its third straight Super Bowl title.

There should be plenty of opportunities for Kelce to catch the ball, as quarterback Patrick Mahomes will likely be throwing it his way often. That will allow for Kelce to rise to the occasion and power the Chiefs' passing attack, as he frequently has done throughout his strong career.

Josh Allen scores at least one rushing touchdown
One of the reasons Allen is so difficult to stop is because he can make plays happen with both his arm and his legs. The 28-year-old Bills quarterback has scored 11 rushing touchdowns over his past 10 games (and that includes Week 18, when he took only one snap in the regular-season finale vs. the New England Patriots).

Allen used his running ability to help power Buffalo past the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round, as he scored a pair of rushing touchdowns in the victory. It was his fourth game with multiple rushing scores this season.

When Buffalo gets close to the end zone on Sunday, expect Allen to find a way to score, as he typically does. Because of that, he should score at least one rushing touchdown in a game that could feature plenty of offense on both sides.

The Chiefs have lost only two games this season, and one of those defeats came in Week 18, when they rested their key players vs. the Denver Broncos. The other one occurred in Week 11, when they traveled to Buffalo and lost 30-21.

That was a close game for much of the second half, until Allen scored a 26-yard rushing touchdown with 2 minutes and 17 seconds remaining to put the Bills ahead by nine.

The AFC Championship Game should be just as competitive, if not more so. The most recent playoff meeting between these two teams came in last year's Divisional Round, when Kansas City held on for a 27-24 victory.

This time, the pattern could end. The Bills have a legitimate chance at finally beating the Chiefs in the playoffs, rather than only in regular-season action.

Kansas City has played plenty of close games this year, but this time, it will swing in their opponent's favor. Allen will score a late touchdown (as he did in the previous meeting) to lift Buffalo to a win and into its first Super Bowl since the 1993 season.

Prediction: Bills 28, Chiefs 24