UFC 312: B/R Main Card Staff Predictions
This weekend, the UFC will make its annual stop in Australia with UFC 312.
The card will be topped by two title fights that look like they could go either way.
In the main event, middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis has the second defense of his reign opposite the man he won the title from early last year, Sean Strickland.
It's not a fight everybody wanted to see, but their first clash was both entertaining and competitive, so there's a good chance it ends up being a treat for those who tune in.
Before we get to the middleweight championship, strawweight champ Zhang Weili will look to defend her belt opposite undefeated contender Tatiana Suarez who, despite a slew of injuries throughout her career, has long been touted as a future champ.
The main card is a little lackluster beyond the top two fights, but it could at least produce some memorable finishes, as Justin Tafa and Tallison Teixeira meeting at heavyweight, and Jimmy Crute battling Rodolfo Bellator at light heavyweight.
The pay-per-view will also feature a fan-friendly welterweight scrap between Jake Matthews and Francisco Prado that looks like an early front-runner for a bonus.
As always, the B/R combat sports squad has you covered for pre-fight predictions. Here's how we see the UFC 312 main card shaking out at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney.
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland 2
Haris Kruskic: On paper, this is one of the most lackluster PPV cards I've seen in a long time. The first three main card fights are bona fide prelims if this event isn't in Australia. Asking fans to spend $80 on it is highway robbery.
As for predicting the main event, it would be surprising to me if Dricus Du Plessis didn't retain his championship. He has a lot of momentum on his side, and I just don't think he's the type of fighter Sean Strickland can outpoint his way to a victory against.
The champ learns from their first fight and puts on an even stronger performance.
Prediction: Du Plessis by unanimous decision
Nick Akerman: This is going to be a super-tight rematch. Du Plessis' adaptability gives him the edge and we might see him make game-plan changes after he struggled to control Strickland on the ground in the first fight.
Du Plessis is a pressure machine and extremely hard to deal with when his output is so consistent. Strickland didn't really pull the trigger in his win over Paulo Costa, so he'll need to up the energy considerably to worry Du Plessis, who is an unbeaten problem-solver in the UFC.
Prediction: Du Plessis by unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Maybe it's me, but when I see Strickland I see "ordinary."
He's good in many facets of the game but not so good in any of them that you regard him as unbeatable. In fact, when he does win, it's often less a question of what he did than what the other guy didn't do. And even the career-definer against Adesanya is looking less impressive these days.
So, to these eyes, this is the champ's fight to lose. He's faster and more versatile and seems climbing while Strickland is leveling off.
Prediction: Du Plessis by TKO, Rd. 4
Tom Taylor: Let me get this out of the way: I wish Du Plessis was defending his belt against Khamzat Chimaev, an undefeated juggernaut who actually deserves the opportunity, rather than Strickland, a boring decision fighter who has had precisely one truly spectacular performance in his whole career and is riding an atrocious win over a middling contender in a fight that he promised would be a war. Whew. Thanks for letting me get that off my chest.
As for the Du Plessis vs. Strickland rematch, I think the champion will make the necessary adjustments to win this one decisively.
Strickland is a very good fighter—even if he's usually boring to watch—but his style doesn't change much, fight to fight. Du Plessis, meanwhile, is very versatile and should have enough tricks up his sleeve to surprise his challenger.
In my mind, he stings Strickland on the feet and finishes him on the mat.
Prediction: Du Plessis by TKO. Rd. 2
Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez
Haris Kruskic: I'm a bit stunned Tatiana Suarez is the slight betting favorite in this one. Although she's very talented and boasts a 10-0 record, her résumé since returning from an almost four-year layoff leaves much to be desired.
Suarez's most recent win against Jéssica Andrade doesn't carry the same weight it did years ago. Sure, she has also beaten other former champions in Alexa Grasso and Carla Esparza, but that was almost seven years ago.
Meanwhile, Zhang Weili has looked terrific as champ over the last three years and shows no signs of slowing down. Even if Suarez does manage to find takedowns, Zhang is more than comfortable on the ground.
I think "Magnum" picks her spot on the feet and finds a finish.
Prediction: Zhang by TKO, Rd. 4
Nick Akerman: I can't see Zhang losing this one, although I do think Suarez is a better fighter than a lot of people give her credit for. The problem is, her opponent possesses very few flaws and has only proved susceptible to Rose Namajunas in her terrific UFC tenure.
Zhang's a quick learner, capable in every area and is facing a Suarez who will be looking to win via a war of attrition.
Zhang is the better fighter and should get it done.
Prediction: Zhang via unanimous decision
Lyle Fitzsimmons: I've got to admit, I was about to type a few sentences on the way to picking the champ. But the more time I allowed before doing it, the more impressed I became with Suarez. Not only is she unbeaten, but she's also finished fights over some pretty substantial competition.
Zhang, meanwhile, feels like she might have a few too many miles on the treads to survive another war.
Prediction: Suarez by submission, Rd. 3
Tom Taylor: I completely relate to Lyle's indecision. I was all set to pick Suarez in this one, but after giving it some more thought, I've completely reconsidered.
While Suarez mauls pretty much everybody she fights and has beaten a bunch of former champions, it's been a while since she's beaten anybody at the top of their game.
Her inactivity is also a cause for concern in this matchup with Zhang, who has proved time and again she has the cardio to put in five hard rounds.
Suarez will probably have some success on the mat early—maybe even threaten with some submissions—but Zhang will hold her own and eventually take control of the fight with her takedown defense and striking.
Once she's got Suarez a little beat up and tired, she should be able to get the finish.
Prediction: Zhang by TKO, Rd. 4
Justin Tafa vs. Tallison Teixeira
Haris Kruskic: You can bet the house that if there's a UFC event in Australia, one of the Tafa brothers will be on it.
Little is known of Justin's opponent in Tallison Teixeira. He's won all seven of his fights by first-round finish, but his opponents have a combined 15-20 record. Standing at 6'7", he'll tie Alexander Volkov as the tallest fighter on the UFC roster once he enters the Octagon.
I'll somewhat blindly pick Teixeira for his metrics alone. This feels like a stage where he can propel himself into being one of the most intriguing prospects in the company despite his lack of experience against good competition.
Prediction: Teixeira by TKO, Rd. 1
Nick Akerman: One of those PPV bookings that makes an illegal stream seem acceptable.
Like Haris, I think Teixeira probably steps up and comes out on top here, although I don't think he'll finish Tafa, who has proved durable throughout his career.
This starts with a bang and slows dramatically as both men struggle to impose their will. I'm leaning towards the new guy.
Prediction: Teixeira by split decision.
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Call this one the main event of the card's vast "meh" portion.
Tafa's most recent success is a defeat of ex-NFL player Austen Lane, which inspires precisely no one. So even though Teixeira's resume is thin, his 6'7" novelty alone makes him a more likely winner.
Prediction: Teixeira by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: Teixeira's UFC career is going to go one of two ways: He's either going to keep knocking people senseless and turn into a serious title challenger, or he's quickly going to be exposed as the kind of heavyweight who becomes totally useless when he has to fight hard for more than six or seven minutes.
I hate to be a pessimist, but until proved otherwise, I'm guessing his career goes in the latter direction.
He'll probably put it on Tafa for the first few minutes, but the Australian "Bad Man" is tough enough to survive the early onslaught. If he does, he should win a comfortable, if forgettable, decision.
Prediction: Tafa by unanimous decision
Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato
Haris Kruskic: Jimmy Crute, who hasn't won a fight in over four years, against Rodolfo Bellato who is on a four-fight win streak.
The math is math-ing.
Prediction: Bellato by TKO, Rd. 2
Nick Akerman: I have no idea why this fight is a thing.
Bellato is a wrecking ball when on form and has the ability to brutally finish opponents. Crute simply has to take his opponent down and neutralise him to have any chance.
I can't see it happening. Bellato has a good finish rate and will add another to his resume to underline what an odd piece of matchmaking this is.
Prediction: Bellato by TKO, Rd. 2.
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Sometimes, it's as simple as momentum. Bellato is riding the wave of wins on Contender Series and in his UFC debut. Crute, meanwhile, hasn't won on any stage for more than four years.
Prediction: Bellato by TKO, Rd. 1
Tom Taylor: Crute seemed like a great prospect for a while there, but I can't argue with anything anyone else has said. Bellato has momentum, Crute has none.
Crute has also contemplated retirement in recent years, which never inspires a lot of confidence in my eyes.
I'm guessing this one gets brutal for The Brute—and quickly.
Prediction: Bellato by TKO, Rd. 1
Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado
Haris Kruskic: Jake Matthews has been with the UFC since 2014, carving out a solid 13-7 record for himself. He'll take on Francisco Prado, who has struggled when fighting comparable veterans.
Give me the Aussie to get his home crowd going for the rest of the main card.
Prediction: Matthews by unanimous decision
Nick Akerman: Matthews needs to be a bit careful here.
He's got key factors in his favour: reach, experience and the support of the crowd. But what he doesn't always have is a distinct willingness to get things done. His last two losses have been via unanimous decision, underlining a tendency to flit about when he could be working a bit harder.
Prado is no pushover and will step forward, which should play into Matthews' hands, forcing him to get busy and just about get it done.
Prediction: Matthews by unanimous decision.
Lyle Fitzsimmons: Hard to believe Matthews has been on the roster for better than a decade, even though he's never risen into spotlight status.
That would seem a prime invitation to suggest a newer guy climbs past his rung, but Prado is 1-2 and hasn't been in any way transcendent.
Proximity is the tiebreaker here and it goes to Matthews.
Prediction: Matthews by unanimous decision
Tom Taylor: It's hard to be confident in a guy who's as inconsistent as Matthews, but this does seem like a fight he should win.
As Nick suggested, he has a lot of key advantages. The most important advantage he'll have is experience. He's been fighting high-level opposition in the UFC for years—and picked up some big wins in that time—while Prado has barely gotten his feet wet.
Unless Matthews gets reckless and gets caught, he should win this one handily.
How often do we all agree on the winner and method of victory for a fight?
Prediction: Matthews by unanimous decision