2012 NCAA Tournament: 5 Reasons the Georgetown Hoyas Won't Be Upset Early

About two minutes after the full NCAA tournament bracket was announced on Sunday, CBS analyst Seth Davis honed in on one particular early upset special: No. 3 seed Georgetown against No. 14 Belmont.

Davis quickly had company. By Tuesday evening, it was a struggle to find a national columnist actually picking the Hoyas to stave off the upstart Belmont Bruins. (Thanks to Georgetown favorite CasualHoya for documenting the swath of upset picks.)

Given Georgetown's recent tournament history—second-round KO  as a No. 2 seed in 2008 (thanks a lot, Stephen Curry), first-round loss to No. 14 Ohio in 2010, and a first-round loss last year to No. 11 VCU—it's no surprise to see people flock to the Belmont-Georgetown matchup as a likely upset.

But just because a pick is trendy doesn't mean it's right.

In this case, it's not.

Here are five reasons this year's Georgetown team will break its recent streak and pull off a few NCAA tournament wins.

Let's get to the heart of the matter right away. When John Thompson III took Georgetown to the Sweet 16 in 2006 and Final Four in 2007, his Hoyas had some of the most efficient defensive stats of any team in the nation.

They had 7'2" Roy Hibbert anchoring the center, 6'9" Jeff Green as a power forward and had a slew of 6'5"-6'8" wingmen ready to provide height and depth at any time.

The past few years' teams can't say the same. They played undersized with Austin Freeman at the 3 and DaJuan Summers at the 4, typically. Those squads never proved to be lock-down defenders—a fact that always came back to haunt them in the tournament.

The 2011-12 Hoyas are much more in the mold of the 2005-07 teams, with a starting lineup of 6'2" Jason Clark, 6'8" Otto Porter, 6'8" Hollis Thompson, 6'9" Nate Lubick and 6'10" Henry Sims.

Georgetown currently ranks seventh in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com. A St. John's assistant told AOL Fanhouse this season that "their defense, whether it's man or zone, to me is nasty."

After being held to only 41 points by the Hoyas, Notre Dame coach Mike Brey said, "That may be the best defensive team we played against this season."

The Hoyas have had a few defensive lapses this year, most notably on the road against Pittsburgh and Seton Hall, but after each game, they snapped back with a smothering defensive performance. And they just lost in double overtime to Cincinnati in the Big East tournament quarterfinals, after not being able to close the Bearcats out.

Just saying: Belmont's three top players, in terms of minutes played, stand 5'11", 6'1" and 6'3". 

Going in hand with the Hoyas' new-found length is their surprising aptitude on the boards this season.

Ever since the 2007-08 season, in terms of total number of rebounds per game, the Hoyas have ranked 141st, 245th, 258th, and 230th nationally, according to StatSheet.com.

Some of that can be attributed to the Hoyas' preferred slower pace on offense—fewer possessions means fewer rebounding opportunities—but the Hoyas had a penchant for missing some big rebounds in key moments.

This year, the Hoyas rank 75th in the country in terms of total rebounds per game and 56th in the country in defensive rebounds per game.

Freshman Otto Porter (more on him later) has been the team's best rebounder, averaging 6.7 boards per game, but three of his teammates average over four per game, too. (Lubick just misses out, with an average of 3.9.)

Belmont ranks right up there with the Hoyas in terms of rebounding averages per game. But again...if Belmont's three top minute-getters are all 6'3" or under, how many rebounds will they be able to wrestle from the four 6'8"-or-taller players that Georgetown trots out in its starting lineup?

The ability to limit a team to one possession on each trip down the floor is critical to avoiding the mid-major upset. Assuming Georgetown can keep the battle of the boards respectable on Friday, that'll give the Hoyas a major advantage.

One of the biggest factors working against Georgetown in previous years was JT3's short bench. While a short bench worked wonders in the Final Four year, when the team's talent dropped off after the departures of Green and Hibbert, so did the success of the six- or seven- man rotation.

This year, with the aforementioned starters and Whittington plus backup big man Mikael Hopkins and guards Markel Starks and Jabril Trawick, the team legitimately goes eight or nine deep.

Given that the Hoyas' leading scorer, Clark, was held to 4-of-12 shooting across Georgetown's two Big East tournament games, that depth may prove invaluable in this tournament.

Best of all, the Hoyas don't sacrifice much when they start subbing out players. The Hoyas' freshmen have come through in huge moments this year, anchoring victories on the road against Louisville and home against Marquette.

If Clark or Thompson go cold against Belmont on Friday, expect JT3 to start subbing with little apprehension.

A defining characteristic of the past few years of Georgetown basketball, if you ask any disgruntled fan, has been the tendency to stagnate on offense.

Often times, the Hoyas would aimlessly pass from one end of the three-point arc to the other for a good 30 seconds, then jack up an ill-advised long-range shot to beat the buzzer.

This year's team, admittedly, still runs into similar stagnation problems from time to time. They're more active on the floor—they'll run around and set screens instead of standing in one place—but all Hoyas fans have reason to be concerned about this aspect of their game.

The one shining beacon of hope: unlike years past, this year's team understands the importance of pounding the ball down low.

The offense runs through Sims at the high post, but he, Clark, Thompson and Porter have all been terrific about generating touches and baskets in the paint.

Clark and Sims thrive off the pick-and-roll game, Thompson's been demonstrating a developing post game all year, and Porter's been the team's best mid-range option. Trawick, in limited minutes, has also shown the ability to get from the perimeter to the bucket in a flash.

If the Hoyas aren't draining threes in the tournament, they'll at least have a backup plan in mind.

How this kid was left off the Big East All-Rookie Team this year, I'll never understand.

Besides being the Hoyas' most reliable mid-range option (a role Austin Freeman should have embraced in years past, but never did) and the Hoyas' leading rebounder, Porter's demonstrated an incredibly high basketball IQ in his short time at Georgetown.

One of the big knocks about JT3's hybrid "Princetown" offense is that it takes a long time, often a year or more, for players to truly understand it. In a college basketball world dominated today by one-and-dones, critics have honed on JT3's offense as to why Georgetown can't win an NCAA championship.

Porter annihilates that theory. He's already averaging 1.6 assists per game this year, and has dished out five more dimes on the year than the Hoyas' point guard, Starks.

More importantly, he's got the remarkable ability to know exactly where to be on the floor, both on offense and defense. He leads the team with 62 offensive rebounds. He's second on the team in both blocks and steals.

JT3's already gone on record as saying Porter's the most "college-ready" freshman that he's ever coached. Given that he's put up 19, 20 and 14 points in Georgetown's last three games, it's safe to say that he's one of the most critical elements to a few Hoya victories this weekend.