Carl Froch vs. George Groves: Preview and Prediction for Title Fight

It will be a battle for bragging rights across Great Britain this Saturday when the U.K.'s top active fighter Carl Froch defends his WBA and IBF super middleweight titles against undefeated fellow Brit George Groves.  

A win by Groves would drastically alter the domestic boxing scene in England as well as the top of the super middleweight rankings. With the exception of Andre Ward, Froch has been the top fighter in the division over the past two years. Some fans even feel he deserves pound-for-pound, top-10 status.

Opportunities like this don't come along often in the fight game. Expect Groves to give everything he's got in Manchester this weekend.

Froch is more than a decade older than Groves and vastly more experienced. At age 36, Froch is on the old side for an elite fighter, but he has always maintained excellent physical condition and has yet to show any signs of aging.

Groves' KO percentage of just more than 75 percent looks impressive on paper, but he's compiled it against trial horses, journeymen and fringe prospects. Froch represents a huge step up for a fighter with less than 100 professional rounds.

Carl Froch has emerged as England's biggest boxing star in the past couple of years. He acquired the status the old-fashioned way by earning it in the ring. Since 2008, he has beaten six current or former world champions.

He reached the finals of Showtime's Super Six super middleweight tournament in December 2011 only to be thoroughly outclassed by pound-for-pound star Andre Ward. But it's his only loss in the past three years, and he avenged his April 2010 defeat to Mikkel Kessler in an entertaining battle last May.

Froch relishes being a big star now in his native country. On a media call before the Kessler fight last May, he was open about the advantages he enjoys as a big star fighting at home: "They cheer and reward you for every good thing you do. I feed off the energy."

Groves is among the top young fighters at 168, but his resume to date is relatively sparse. His unanimous-decision win over Glen Johnson last December was an outstanding performance, but Johnson was a month shy of 44 and riding a three-fight losing streak coming in.

Groves will face a much stiffer test from Froch. But he's expressed a ton of confidence in his ability to beat the champ, and if he can cash the checks his mouth has been writing, the sport will see the emergence of a new star.  

Carl Froch is among the best conditioned fighters in the sport. He works at a busy pace and has a well-rounded game with solid boxing skills and brawling ability. His reach is good for a super middleweight and he exploits it with a stiff jab. 

He is adept at fighting off his back foot and has a tricky right-hand counter. He switches smoothly from an offensive to defensive posture and has the power to end fights.

George Groves strings together quick, varied combinations off his jab. He has good power and punches from a lot of angles, attacking both the body and head. 

He is a strong super middleweight who can apply pressure well. Like Froch, he always shows up for a fight in excellent physical condition.  

Carl Froch has a bad habit of squaring his stance when he lets go with his punches, offering his opponents a bigger target. He tends to let his hands hang too low, especially his lead left hand.

He also leaves defensive holes when he is trading in an exchange. A fighter who beats him to the punch can give him trouble. 

George Groves has trouble fighting when he is forced to back up. He can get lazy with his jab, which leave him vulnerable to a right hand over the top. 

He fought a solid fight against Glen Johnson, but at times he was careless when attacking. Froch will make him pay dearly for that. 

Carl Froch will win if he can exploit his reach behind the jab. He should look to establish a stiff jab early in the fight as he circles back and around. He should keep Groves at the end of his punch, playing matador to Groves' bull. 

As Groves continues to look to move inside, Froch should ease up the jab and bait his opponent forward into his overhand right. 

Once Froch catches Groves with a good punch, he should switch to offense and drive his young challenger backward, unloading a barrage of uppercuts and lead hooks. He needs to drag Groves into the deep waters quickly in this fight, before the challenger can build his confidence. 

George Groves will have a chance to win this fight if he can slip inside Froch's jab and rough up his body. He needs to double up his jab and then look to score with the lead left hook to the ribs. 

He should also look to catch Froch when his lead left arm is hanging low. He should fake the jab and then lower his level and let go with his overhand right over the top of Froch's lead left.

Most of all, Groves needs to make this a bruising, fast-paced fight. This is a big step up in competition for him, and the best thing he can do is to jump into the water and start swimming. The second that he slows down to think is the second that he'll start to sink. 

I think Groves is a talented young fighter, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him win a world championship some day. But I don't think that day is going to be Saturday in Manchester. 

He looked terrific against Johnson last December, but a 43-year-old Johnson is a much less dangerous fighter than Froch at 36. Froch has only gotten better in the last couple of years and appears to be at the top of his game. 

He has better skills and far more experience than Groves. He's beaten a laundry list of highly ranked fighters since 2010, losing only to Andre Ward, who is arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. And while he clearly lost to Ward, he didn't get completely blown out. 

I just can't pick against Froch until I've seen some very good reasons to do so. Nothing I've seen in his recent performances or in Groves' latest fights qualifies as justification to pick against him. 

I think he will build up a steady lead in the first half of the fight, scoring heavily as he does so. Groves will know if he is far down on the cards and will sell out and start taking chances, trying to force a knockout. 

When he does that, Froch will make him pay for it. In my estimation, this is too much fight too soon for Groves. 

I'm picking Froch by Round 9 TKO.