Australia vs. New Zealand: Key Battles for Bledisloe Cup

Believe it or not, Australia could yet square the 2015 Bledisloe Cup series.

After a drab draw in Sydney, the Wallabies were humped in Auckland by a red–hot New Zealand side to ensure the giant hunk of silverware stayed in All Black hands.

They then went down to South Africa and Argentina in their final two games.

In addition, the Wallabies have been sloshing around in scandal for the last fortnight, with mercurial playmaker Kurtley Beale at the centre of a misconduct storm involving Australian team manager Di Patston, per Andrew Webster in the Sydney Morning Herald.

According to Georgina Robinson in the Sydney Morning Herald, coach Ewen McKenzie has been rumoured to be on the brink, while splits in the playing camp have been mooted, per Jim Morton of AAP (via the Sydney Morning Herald). 

Finally, injured skipper Stephen Moore has been drawn into the conversation, according to Chris Dutton of the Canberra Times (via the Sydney Morning Herald).

After all that, their record against their trans-Tasman neighbours is still only drawn one, lost one, so they could at least level the series if not wrest back the pot.

It’s unlikely, given the gulf in class between the sides—on a dry track at least—and the mess the Wallabies appear to be in at present, but stranger things have happened, as Rupert Guinness in the Sydney Morning Herald pointed out.

So, heavy favourites though New Zealand appear to be, let’s join Guinness and suspend our disbelief for a moment while we have a look at the key matchups that could sway this contest one way or the other.

Fardy has been one of the rare success stories for Australia in the Rugby Championship.

His work in defence was valuable and he complemented the all-action style of his fellow flanker Michael Hooper excellently.

Against him on Saturday will be Liam Messam who, says the New Zealand Herald’s Gregor Paul, has forced his way back into the starting line–up for the All Blacks ahead of Jerome Kaino in order to enable the high tempo Steve Hansen wants to see his team adopt against the Wallabies:

He'll give the All Blacks greater continuity. Messam will better link the forwards with the backs - and he's better suited to playing the high tempo rugby the All Blacks are going to have in mind.

That doesn't mean he's the better player. It simply means that for this test, against an expansively-minded Australia on a fast track, he's the better option.

Fardy will have to call upon that big engine of his to track his man when he starts to roam into the wide channels, or the All Blacks will have numbers in abundance to overpower the gold defenders.

Australia’s front row are probably still having nightmares about the torrid time they were given by the All Blacks front row in Auckland.

They were shoved off their ball at one point during the first half and ended up with another set piece on their own line minutes later.

They went into reverse again, and coughed up a penalty try, which you can see from 1:14 in the video above.

They simply have to do better if they are to stand a chance of staying in the game.

If the All Blacks have a strong platform from the scrum they will be able to do as they please from there, and that will spell disaster for Australia.

The only change from that front row line–up for the Wallabies is hooker Saia Fainga’a replacing rookie Nathan Charles, while New Zealand roll out the same trio from Auckland in Wyatt Crockett, Dane Coles and Owen Franks.

If Australia want to look for an area to penetrate the All Blacks defence, they may well identify the head-to-head between outside centres Tevita Kuridrani and Conrad Smith.

The All Blacks star is not a shabby defender by any stretch of the imagination, but when Manu Tuliagi was pitched in against him during England’s tour this summer, he did have success at getting beyond the gain line with his direct style.

Kuridrani has shown his own effectiveness at this, particularly during Australia’s defeat to South Africa on the road. Australia will look to move the ball wide quickly and if the Brumbies man gets time to size his man—and the space either side of him—up, he could get through.

On the flip–side, Smith is such an intelligent user of the ball and the space he has around him, Kuridrani will need to make some early decisions about how he is going to deal with him.

New Zealand have been seen to favour a flat ball across the face of their back line rather than slinging it behind a screen of dummy runners, so the Australian will need to anticipate the ball being fizzed into Smith’s hands early and work out from there whether it’s best to blitz up or drift across.